Blue Springs nearly doubles in size?

[The Summit]

From the LS paper. BS has annexed all the way down and around Grain Valley towards Colbern Road and Lee's Summit will annex around the south side of BS and towards Lone Jack. This is basically going to fill up eastern Jack when all this land is developed. BS/GV is supposed to reach 90,000 and LS is supposed to reach 150,000+ in the next decade. WOW.

[scooterj]

I'm very curious about the shape of the annexed area. The articles I've read mention a few roads but none give the complete boundaries. I understand though that it does now extend all the way to Colbern Road, which is a rather bold move and extends the boundary a mile further south than I figured they'd ever go. They were smart to do it, though, because Blue Springs is on the verge of being boxed in and so needs to grab whatever land it can.

I've been waiting for a couple of months for the Blue Springs web site to show an updated city map but no dice. (I don't know what it is about web sites that come out of Blue Springs, but nearly all that I have seen seem to be stuck in 1996 in terms of design standards and 6 months ago in terms of content. )

I don't see Blue Springs ever growing past 60,000 people. Development there has been virtually at a halt for years and their population is only barely inching up. They've had to resort to putting a Home Depot on the parkway that they built with the promise it would be developed like Corporate Woods.

I can easilly see Grain Valley reaching and perhaps even exceeding 20,000 though.

Grain Valley is gonna wind up with an interesting shape as it grows. It's squeezed between Blue Springs and Oak Grove, and blocked by Independence and Buckner to the north and northwest. It has a large county park near its midsection that it has to wrap around. To the south it seems to be mostly unencumbered as I doubt it'll get large enough to reach the obstables of Blue & Gray Park, Lone Jack, or the likely eventually-approaching Lee's Summit. It's probably gonna wind up with some sort of long skinny shape with prongs jutting east along I-70 and along RD Mize (the southeastern segment of it), kinda like a lowercase letter 'f'.

[GRID]

Blue Springs is nearly 100% developed. I would argue that if you take out the parkland (or maybe even if you included it) it would be the densest city in the metro by numbers before the annexation. The City is surrounded and includes a lot of lakes and big parks like Burr Oak and Landahl, plus is up against Flemming Park. Bottom line is that BS is nearly landlocked by Independence to the NW (which is filling in with major developments), Grain Valley to the east (which will be about the side of BS now in 20 years), Lee’s Summit and Lake Lotawana to the south (as mentioned LS is annexing east along the south side of Colbern). So this new annexation is about as big as BS will get, but it’s a big chunk of land that will quickly develop. The main reason BS has slowed so much is because it’s been out of land and the roads were not in place for intense growth to the south.

Colbern has been widened to four lanes to Lake Jacomo and then will be widened to HWY 7 soon. Rt 7 has been widend to Colbern, a new interchange at I-470 and Strother and the widening of Woods Chapel east of 470 to four lanes will start soon. Plus the final phases of Adams Dairy Pkwy will be completed in a couple of years. Opening all this land up for development and essentially building out BS in about 15 years. LS and GV will continue on their torrid paces as they are not landlocked.

I estimate that BS will have about 70K, GV will be about 25-30K and LS will be 110-130k in 15 years. That LS number could be pretty low though. Plus Independence will continue to boom enough in the eastern parts and redevelop in the middle parts to offset losses in the far north of west parts of that city for some decent net gains and far eastern KCMO along LS Rd. and Colbern Rd. will take off in the next 5-10 years.

Just my theory anyway. Not saying it’s good or bad, but just what’s likely to happen.

Here is a map of BS and it’s new city limits:

[scooterj]

Blue Springs is nearly 100% developed. I would argue that if you take out the parkland (or maybe even if you included it) it would be the densest city in the metro by numbers before the annexation.

I have to give you that, this is true. By my calculations is comes out to about 3,500 to 4,000 people per square mile. Except for a few small pockets they have been very good at not overextending themselves.

Here is a map of BS and it’s new city limits:

When did Blue Springs annex all that land north to FF/Truman Road? I didn't think they had anything north of Pink Hill except for that jagged bit along the east side of the 7 Hwy bend.

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On a semi-related note.... as Blue Springs and Grain Valley fill in the gap between them (my childhood stomping grounds), I hope that they retain some of the natural beauty of that area and turn it into parkland. (Unlike the devastation of nature in the form of the bizarre cutting away of Minter Hill.) Blue Branch creek would be perfect for a streamway trail similar to Mill Creek and Indian Creek in JoCo. (It even used to be good for fishing when I was a kid, though I've noticed that development has destroyed one of the fishing spots I used to use.)

Another good candidate would be the Blue Branch tributary that runs along the railroad through the woods between AA and 40. I used to play in those woods a lot as a kid. There's some wetlands in there, and also old homestead ruins hidden away back there. It'd be a shame to see that all paved over and/or unpreserved/unappreciated.

In fact, trails and parks should be developed along both of these streams. They would then meet up in what is now undeveloped space in north of AA in western Grain Valley. From there they could merge into a single trail that follows Blue Branch through existing new development, winding its way along into Monkey Mountain Park where it empties into Sni-a-Bar. Then a trail system can follow Sni-a-Bar as far as anyone wants to run with it.

(Monkey Mountain Park should, in my opinion, remain as it is... other than perhaps a footbridge across Sni-a-Bar leading from my suggested trail into the park. It is perfect the way it is, my favorite park in the entire metro area.)

[dangerboy]

Grid, another limiting factor in Blue Springs' growth is a really rocky relationship with developers, both residential and commercial. The city is very prone to compare itself with Overland Park, and so it pushes developers very hard for all up-scale development, at the expense of much-needed multi-family or moderatelly-priced housing. And the Mall at Fall Creek is a good example on the retail side. That project is failing big-time because the city is holidng out for upscale retail when the demand just isn't there. Most of the upscale development in eastern Jack is going to Lee's Summit and southeastern Independence. There isn't enough demand for Blue Springs to get the amount of it that they want.

[GRID]

Grid, another limiting factor in Blue Springs' growth is a really rocky relationship with developers, both residential and commercial. The city is very prone to compare itself with Overland Park, and so it pushes developers very hard for all up-scale development, at the expense of much-needed multi-family or moderatelly-priced housing. And the Mall at Fall Creek is a good example on the retail side. That project is failing big-time because the city is holidng out for upscale retail when the demand just isn't there. Most of the upscale development in eastern Jack is going to Lee's Summit and southeastern Independence. There isn't enough demand for Blue Springs to get the amount of it that they want.

True...

Also, BS and other eastern jack cities need to build more upscale apartments. There are finally some going in now, but for the most part, that area of town has not had many options for people wanting decent apartments. BS is one of the worst at this, people are afraid of "multi-family” housing. Well people tend to buy a home near where they first get started and most of the big new apartment complexes are in JoCo and in the Northland. Also, those who don’t want to buy a home and just like living in apartments have to go elsewhere as well.

As far as retails goes, BS has decent demos, but as you said, with all that is going on in LS and Indy, there is only so much to go around. BS has hired Zimmer to redevelop the 40/7 intersection and that intersection has too much traffic and potential to not be redeveloped in the next several years.

Scooter, BS has not annexed the area up north yet, but plan to in the future.

[dangerboy]

Scooter, here is the proposal for the Jackson County portion of MetroGreen, which includes the 40 Hwy corridor in the first phase, along the east side of BS and Jacomo lakes in the second phase, and northern Blue Springs to Grain Valley and the southest in the third phase.

http://www.marc.org/metrogreen/jaco.htm

here is a bigger version in PDF:
http://www.marc.org/metrogreen/jaco.pdf

[scooterj]

Scooter, here is the proposal for the Jackson County portion of MetroGreen, which includes the 40 Hwy corridor in the first phase, along the east side of BS and Jacomo lakes in the second phase, and northern Blue Springs to Grain Valley and the southest in the third phase.

http://www.marc.org/metrogreen/jaco.htm

here is a bigger version in PDF:
http://www.marc.org/metrogreen/jaco.pdf

Wow, this will be very nice indeed!

[scooterj]

Another article about all the annexations going on in EJC.

http://www.examiner.net/stories/122903/ ... 3008.shtml

Earlier this fall, Blue Springs announced plans to add 9,557 acres to the city.

I don't know if the map posted by GRID above is a map of these 9,557 acres or if this is on top of what that map shows. My guess is the map above shows the total planned annexation area, including the 2,000 already annexed at the southern end.

At this rate I could see within 50 years Blue Springs slipping around the east side of Lake Lotawana and reaching 50 Highway. Unless Grain Valley beats them to it and landlocks them in. Beyond this map I think SE is the only direction they won't be sealed in. Unless Tarsney Lakes incorporates to stop the insanity like River Bend did and Stilwell tried to do.

[GRID]

I think that is about as big a BS will get or can get. It will be land locked by Independence, LS, GV, and Lotawanna. The city will be built out at about 80-90k.

By then GV will be as big as BS is now and Lee's Summit will have 200,000. Geez that's scary.

[dangerboy]

The map looks like the total future annexation, not just the recent southern addition. It looks like it roughly builds the city out to the eastern boundary of the Blue Springs School District, which means the problem overlapping jurisdictions won't be worsened. While there might some room to annex north and south of Grain Valley, this map looks fairly reasonable. The unincorporated areas of Eastern Jack, especially south of 24 Hwy, are rapidly being incorporated into adjacent suburbs.

[bahua]

It'd be nice if they made a fine town from the ample land that they have. Instead, they seem to wish to follow the tried-and-false annex-flee strategy.

[scooterj]

It'd be nice if they made a fine town from the ample land that they have. Instead, they seem to wish to follow the tried-and-false annex-flee strategy.

You mean Blue Springs? Before the recent annexation they not only did not have ample land, they had no land. Blue Springs, almost to a fault, has been very good about annexing only when the landowner requests and is ready to develop. Prior to this annexation, Blue Springs was full which is why they have barely grown since the early 1990s.

[scooterj]

Feeling even geekier than usual, I threw together a map of what Eastern Jackson County might look like in 2029, 25 years from now. This is based on current growth patterns, planned annexation areas, boundary agreements between cities, and the lay of the land in general. I also have one way-out-on-a-limb prediction thrown in. Here's the map, below is a city-by-city explanation. This map is based on my personal thoughts and not on official plans or policy. I'm also not making any statement of whether any of this is good or bad, just speculating what could happen over the next 25 years.





Bates City - Technically not EJC but it's on the map to give perspective to Oak Grove growth. I don't see growth reaching this area by that time except maybe for a new truck stop.

Blue Springs - Fills in pretty much as already discussed. There is room for future growth to the southeast but the hilliness of the land, lack of infrastructure, and the remoteness of the area makes development unlikely. Only a major project, such as either extending Adams Dairy Parkway and in a southeast direction towards either Buckner-Tarsney Road or US-50 or a substantial upgrade to Colbern Road, would open this area to development.

Buckner - May grow slightly to the east and west but too remote from an interstate highway for explosive growth. Westward growth might be more to halt any eastward expansion of Independence.

Grain Valley - Grain Valley will continue to grow both north and south, but growth to the south will slow down due to the terrain and be limited mainly to the southeast. Growth to the north will continue unabated except for one long-shot obstacle indicated in pink and explained below.

Greenwood - I didn't do anything with Greenwood as I am completely unfamiliar with that area.

Independence - Has a lot of empty land to develop so I don't think there will be much expansion except for along the north side of the US-24 corridor. Expect MO-7 widened and partially developed at least as far north as the Lake City traffic circle.

Lake Lotawana - Expansion will be mainly to gain control of land around it as has been the trend recently, though will feed off Blue Springs and Lee's Summit growth by expanding east and south.

Lake Tapawingo - Already boxed in.

Lee's Summit - Will continue marching eastward towards Lone Jack. Don't think it will quite make it though, unless the state gives up on expanding I-70 and upgrades US-50 to a freeway instead.

Levasy - I don't see much change happening hear at all. (I'm not even sure the boundaries shown here are right, I know Levasy de-annexed almost half of its area several years ago.)

Lone Jack - Lone Jack has a lot of potential and I think that in about 25 years we're going to see the beginings of a good growth phase starting within the next several years with an expansion westward towards Lee's Summit.

Napoleon - Not in EJC, I know nothing about it, so didn't touch it.

Oak Grove - Oak Grove will continue to grow at a slow but steady pace after its infrastructure problems are solved. It will rapidly expand westward in order to hold Grain Valley to the traditional boundary between them, and a new interchange at Lefholz Road will spark development in this area. Growth soutward will be stymied both by terrain and the remoteness, but growth to the north and east along the outer road will continue.

Pink Hill - This is my extreme long shot. I'm proposing the possibility that the town of Pink Hill might re-incorporate. Right now that area consists mostly of expensive estate homes on large plots of land (3 to numerous acres). Marching towards them from the south is suburban development -- multifamily housing, compact subdivisions, commercial strip centers, etc. The current residents of this area could potentially petition for re-incorporation in order to protect their way of life and create a buffer between their estate homes and surrounding suburbia.

Sibley - No change, too remote

[dangerboy]

Blue Springs' population will also be limited by job growth in the community. So far they haven't been very successful in attracting offices, and only a few industrial operations. It will be hard to build a city of 90,000 without more jobs close by, especially as congestion continues to increase commute times to Downtown, the Plaza, and Johnson County. So far Lee's Summit is the only Eastern Jack community that is having much success attracting more jobs.

[dangerboy]

Good map scooter. One more consideration is the Little Blue Valley. This area in southeastern Independence will soon explode, as well as northeastern Independence if the Lewis and Clark Expressway is ever built.

Grain Valley is definitely the next wave of sprawl, although the underpass through I-70 will be a huge bottleneck for any significant northward growth. Oak Grove still has too many infrastructure and leadership problems to seize any growth opportunities yet, and again the I-70 intersection is huge bottleneck due to poor planning decisions. Unless The O.G. wants to fund a new intersection itself, it will have to wait in line behind I-70 reconstruction and other projects.

Like I just said in an earlier post, job creation is a big factor in determining how Eastern Jack grows. If a critical mass of suburban jobs isn't created here, then a lot of the smaller towns won't see as much growth. Commute times to KC and Overland Park are becoming prohibitive for the further-out towns to see a lot of growth. If the office component of Eastland Center succeeds then Grain Valley, Oak Grove, Buckner, etc. will probably explode. If Lee's Summit gets a concentration of jobs along I-470 then Lone Jack and Blue Springs will get a lot of growth.

[scooterj]

as well as northeastern Independence if the Lewis and Clark Expressway is ever built.

Good call. I didn't even think about that project. That could definitely have an effect on growth between US-24 and the river.

Grain Valley is definitely the next wave of sprawl, although the underpass through I-70 will be a huge bottleneck for any significant northward growth

Yep, that underpass is already a problem. I'm assuming though that something will get done about it and the money will be found somewhere. 25-years ago MO-7 was a 2-lane road with a similar underpass, Adamas Dairy was an almost abandoned gravel road, and Little Blue Parkway was a 2-lane country overpass with no interchange and no commitment from MODOT to improve it. So I see no reason Grain Valley's current bottleneck will last.

Oak Grove still has too many infrastructure and leadership problems to seize any growth opportunities yet, and again the I-70 intersection is huge bottleneck due to poor planning decisions. Unless The O.G. wants to fund a new intersection itself, it will have to wait in line behind I-70 reconstruction and other projects.

I do believe demand will force a Lefholz Road interchange which will benefit both Grain Valley and Oak Grove. Also Oak Grove's days of benefiting from its truck stops is drawing to a close and I could see the city buying at least one of them out and redeveloping the land. Reducing the number of trucks at the main interchange could buy some time.

[bahua]

You mean Blue Springs? Before the recent annexation they not only did not have ample land, they had no land. Blue Springs, almost to a fault, has been very good about annexing only when the landowner requests and is ready to develop. Prior to this annexation, Blue Springs was full which is why they have barely grown since the early 1990s.

The reason it hasn't grown since the early 1990s is not that they didn't have land. That's a load of hogwash. There's sufficient land in Raytown for 200,000 people to live comfortably, so don't tell me that Blue Springs couldn't fit a quarter of that in double the land. If the empty space is gone, that doesn't mean that the development stops. It means that the fleeing stops, and under normal circumstances, the town must then think about how to best use the land they have.

[bahua]

Oh, and based on current growth(not really growth, just displacement), that map is way off. Lone Jack will not be a town all by itself, out in the country, for one. The development perceived by the more-than-happy towns where it occurs will happen about 15-20 miles east of the east city limits of Blue Springs, while Blue Springs, Lees Summit, and Independence will be well into a state of rot.

[dangerboy]

The reason it hasn't grown since the early 1990s is not that they didn't have land. That's a load of hogwash. There's sufficient land in Raytown for 200,000 people to live comfortably, so don't tell me that Blue Springs couldn't fit a quarter of that in double the land. If the empty space is gone, that doesn't mean that the development stops. It means that the fleeing stops, and under normal circumstances, the town must then think about how to best use the land they have.

I agree with you bahua, but the reality is that most people have a different comfort that does no include living in the type of city that would be required fit 200,000 people into the area of Raytown.