KCI Flight Schedule Adjustments

[brewcrew1000]

The cost St. Louis is paying is well above what peers paid for what they are getting.

Can someone give a brief explanation of airport economics? Are they worried that the flights from St. Louis won't be full? Why are flights more expensive to smaller cities while still getting subsidies that (I assume) larger cities like Atlanta aren't paying? Are they just charging the cities these fees because they can or is there some financial reason for it?

This is economics and how our country operates now. In America we subsidize risk (Airline Routes, Vaccine Creation, Stadiums, etc) and privatize profits.

[dev49]

The cost St. Louis is paying is well above what peers paid for what they are getting.

Can someone give a brief explanation of airport economics? Are they worried that the flights from St. Louis won't be full? Why are flights more expensive to smaller cities while still getting subsidies that (I assume) larger cities like Atlanta aren't paying? Are they just charging the cities these fees because they can or is there some financial reason for it?

Airlines know they can fill flights in New York, chicago, etc. mid sized cities aren’t proven markets to Europe so they want some guarantees they won’t lose money if they flights don’t sell well. So they basically want incentives as insurance. Plus when you have 5 cities fighting for a route why not make them compete against each other and pay you more money.

Flights are cheaper in larger cities because there is more competition.

[beautyfromashes]

Airlines know they can fill flights in New York, chicago, etc. mid sized cities aren’t proven markets to Europe so they want some guarantees they won’t lose money if they flights don’t sell well. So they basically want incentives as insurance. Plus when you have 5 cities fighting for a route why not make them compete against each other and pay you more money.

Flights are cheaper in larger cities because there is more competition.

So, why not avoid the competition? Why make $600 on a flight to Europe from NY or Boston where competition is crazy when you can make $1200 from St. Louis or Kansas City PLUS get an incentive to cover more than any risk?

[normalthings]

The cost St. Louis is paying is well above what peers paid for what they are getting.

Look at subsidy vs flights .

[dev49]

Airlines know they can fill flights in New York, chicago, etc. mid sized cities aren’t proven markets to Europe so they want some guarantees they won’t lose money if they flights don’t sell well. So they basically want incentives as insurance. Plus when you have 5 cities fighting for a route why not make them compete against each other and pay you more money.

Flights are cheaper in larger cities because there is more competition.

So, why not avoid the competition? Why make $600 on a flight to Europe from NY or Boston where competition is crazy when you can make $1200 from St. Louis or Kansas City PLUS get an incentive to cover more than any risk?

You are preaching to the choir here.

But apparently it isn’t that simple.

[beautyfromashes]

Airlines know they can fill flights in New York, chicago, etc. mid sized cities aren’t proven markets to Europe so they want some guarantees they won’t lose money if they flights don’t sell well. So they basically want incentives as insurance. Plus when you have 5 cities fighting for a route why not make them compete against each other and pay you more money.

Flights are cheaper in larger cities because there is more competition.

So, why not avoid the competition? Why make $600 on a flight to Europe from NY or Boston where competition is crazy when you can make $1200 from St. Louis or Kansas City PLUS get an incentive to cover more than any risk?

You are preaching to the choir here.

But apparently it isn’t that simple.

I just really don't understand the financial decisions, honestly. There has to be more risk or public relations related for flying mostly to larger cities or return flights are an issue or they worry if they cut back on large city flights they will lose access to other carriers by the airport or government regulation that limits flight numbers, etc. What's the game here?

[herrfrank]

Upon reflection, I think this Lufthansa win for STL may be a negative for KC. Trying not to be zero-sum, but consider:

1. It looks pre-emptive. Missouri has one state government, and even if this was funded largely by the St. Louis (ahem, Clayton) "city fathers," this smells of some insider negotiations in Jeff City. Also, by announcing now, they jump the gun on our younger city with its shiny, new airport about to debut next year. And the timing is just after DL unveiled its large Kansas City SkyClub. (STL has only one, small lounge, the AA Admirals Club -- however LH will almost certainly pay American Airlines for access -- like they do in Charlotte and formerly at other outstations)

2. Frankfurt? Doesn't everyone here think that AMS or LHR or CDG are much likelier destination airports for a mid-sized midwestern metro? United also is not big here nor at STL. This looks like a way to cut the legs out from a Delta KLM MCI-AMS move or even (a now, admittedly less likely) BA/ AA MCI-LHR service.

3. Subsidies are a fact of life for European service. Who would shell out in KC? MOBAY (don't know the new name) seemed like a possibility, but anyone travelling for Bayer now would rather take a car service to STL for a nonstop rather than connect in Amsterdam. In fact any German intercontinental traveler would probably take the four-hour hit here rather than a schlep between terminals in a non-German European country.

[normalthings]

Upon reflection, I think this Lufthansa win for STL may be a negative for KC. Trying not to be zero-sum, but consider:

1. It looks pre-emptive. Missouri has one state government, and even if this was funded largely by the St. Louis (ahem, Clayton) "city fathers," this smells of some insider negotiations in Jeff City. Also, by announcing now, they jump the gun on our younger city with its shiny, new airport about to debut next year. And the timing is just after DL unveiled its large Kansas City SkyClub. (STL has only one, small lounge, the AA Admirals Club -- however LH will almost certainly pay American Airlines for access -- like they do in Charlotte and formerly at other outstations)

2. Frankfurt? Doesn't everyone here think that AMS or LHR or CDG are much likelier destination airports for a mid-sized midwestern metro? United also is not big here nor at STL. This looks like a way to cut the legs out from a Delta KLM MCI-AMS move or even (a now, admittedly less likely) BA/ AA MCI-LHR service.

3. Subsidies are a fact of life for European service. Who would shell out in KC? MOBAY (don't know the new name) seemed like a possibility, but anyone travelling for Bayer now would rather take a car service to STL for a nonstop rather than connect in Amsterdam. In fact any German intercontinental traveler would probably take the four-hour hit here rather than a schlep between terminals in a non-German European country.

I don't entirely agree. MO has had no involvement in the incentives for this flight, at least as of yet. A business traveler will not take the 5 hour hit to drive to STL. There is not really any cost savings by flying from STL. You can 1 stop connect for about the same price.

[GRID]

Frankfurt is a major hub to most of Europe. It actually makes more sense than even London or Paris. Maybe KC could pull off a non stop to London or something, but I still think it has to get its domestic numbers up first and it needs more flights to regional cities like Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita etc to feed into international flights. I may be wrong, but I think StL has a lot more of those regional type flights.

[normalthings]

Frankfurt is a major hub to most of Europe. It actually makes more sense than even London or Paris. Maybe KC could pull off a non stop to London or something, but I still think it has to get its domestic numbers up first and it needs more flights to regional cities like Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita etc to feed into international flights. I may be wrong, but I think StL has a lot more of those regional type flights.

Yes, because southwest has a connecting operation in St. Louis. KC will not get those types of flights otherwise.

[WoodDraw]

How many people fly connecting southwest and then legacy international? That seems…odd.

Again why not just go through a bigger hub?

[normalthings]

Frankfurt is a major hub to most of Europe. It actually makes more sense than even London or Paris. Maybe KC could pull off a non stop to London or something, but I still think it has to get its domestic numbers up first and it needs more flights to regional cities like Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita etc to feed into international flights. I may be wrong, but I think StL has a lot more of those regional type flights.

Yes, because southwest has a connecting operation in St. Louis. KC will not get those types of flights otherwise.

I don't many are going to connect on SW then transfer to LH

[herrfrank]

^ I am having continued difficulty understanding the LH decision. UA is their "domestic legacy" Star Alliance partner. They fly nonstops to STL from Chicago, Houston, Denver, Newark, IAD (Washington Dulles), and San Francisco. Those cities all have separate service, direct to Germany, I think it includes Lufthansa to Frankfurt in every case.

So there is zero "natural" connecting traffic that will happen within the alliance for this new STL-FRA service. During IRROPS there will be a dribble (say, if DEN-FRA cancels, UA could route some traffic to STL and then onward to FRA).

As mentioned above, a few hardy souls will connect from Southwest (possibly even some KC folks) rather than at O'Hare or some other hub.

But in the end, the STL metro has to provide the draw for this flight. Apples-to-apples, I think the KC metro would have had a better draw for a nonstop to Europe. My hope is that the existence (or eventual failure) of this STL flight does not deter another airline from taking a chance on MCI.

[normalthings]

KC has 600 PPDEW during peak and 400 PPDEW average across the year. We don’t need feeding connections on the US side but do need connections on the Europe side. I can only assume STL is the same. They also say they have high premium business and cargo traffic to Germany.

[dev49]

^ I am having continued difficulty understanding the LH decision. UA is their "domestic legacy" Star Alliance partner. They fly nonstops to STL from Chicago, Houston, Denver, Newark, IAD (Washington Dulles), and San Francisco. Those cities all have separate service, direct to Germany, I think it includes Lufthansa to Frankfurt in every case.

So there is zero "natural" connecting traffic that will happen within the alliance for this new STL-FRA service. During IRROPS there will be a dribble (say, if DEN-FRA cancels, UA could route some traffic to STL and then onward to FRA).

As mentioned above, a few hardy souls will connect from Southwest (possibly even some KC folks) rather than at O'Hare or some other hub.

But in the end, the STL metro has to provide the draw for this flight. Apples-to-apples, I think the KC metro would have had a better draw for a nonstop to Europe. My hope is that the existence (or eventual failure) of this STL flight does not deter another airline from taking a chance on MCI.

This is a couple years old but I am sure fairly relevant still since covid killed the last 2 years.

Numbers for cities without TATL service just before the Iceland airlines mass expansion in 2018
St. Louis 158,300
Cleveland 156,700
Nashville 152,500
Indianapolis 145,900
Kansas City 116,990
Columbus 114,714

https://www.anna.aero/2017/09/13/kansas ... om-europe/

Depending on how covid changes things STL will be fine. They have businesses kicking in a lot of money so I assume it will be supported. KC now just needs to get the same kind of business support to land something when the new terminal opens.

[GRID]

^ I thought KC's numbers were more comparable or would even beat out most of the cities on this list. So this tells me that StL should be fine ,but KC getting a TATL flight is very much a long shot at least right now.

[Walker]

This came up on google today

Speaking of air service I had a nice chat with the director earlier today. Here’s what he shared with me (that he allowed me to share)

- The Delta sky club likely won’t be the only club, negotiations ongoing with other operators.
- The airport is prepared to offer up to 1.5 million in incentives for new TATL service. Obviously far below what STL fronted but might enough for DL, BA or even Condor to bite. Currently working with businesses and the state to increase it but that takes time and data.
- He wouldn’t say exactly where DL stands on adding a TATL but new domestic flights could arise such as RDU once the new terminal opens.
- Even though FI pulled out, TATL traffic actually increased and stated airlines have responded positively to recent meetings. He met with six carriers in Milan a few months ago. Reading between the lines, landing BA and resumption of FI are our best chances.

The demand is there and airlines are noticing. We just need to grease their palms. It’s a matter of time but expect to wait a few more years. The immediate goal is getting back lost routes. Of course he knows more than what he told me but still something to take in consideration.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p23080789

[normalthings]

Delta and America had clubs in the old Terminals ~10 years ago. I would expect AA to be the other airline wanting to add something here.

[dev49]

^ I thought KC's numbers were more comparable or would even beat out most of the cities on this list. So this tells me that StL should be fine ,but KC getting a TATL flight is very much a long shot at least right now.

Little bit newer numbers. Should include some of the time these routes had service to Europe which pushed them up.
Data based on the 12 months to September 2019.

US airport Traffic to/from London --- Traffic to Europe
St. Louis 38,800 --- 260,700
Cleveland 37,500 --- 269,600
Cincinnati 37,100 --- 239,100
Kansas City 35,400 --- 217,400
Indianapolis 34,769 --- 201,000
Columbus 31,100 --- 177,000

https://www.anna.aero/2019/12/17/britis ... -st-louis/

[normalthings]

^ I thought KC's numbers were more comparable or would even beat out most of the cities on this list. So this tells me that StL should be fine ,but KC getting a TATL flight is very much a long shot at least right now.

Little bit newer numbers. Should include some of the time these routes had service to Europe which pushed them up.
Data based on the 12 months to September 2019.

US airport Traffic to/from London --- Traffic to Europe
St. Louis 38,800 --- 260,700
Cleveland 37,500 --- 269,600
Cincinnati 37,100 --- 239,100
Kansas City 35,400 --- 217,400
Indianapolis 34,769 --- 201,000
Columbus 31,100 --- 177,000

https://www.anna.aero/2019/12/17/britis ... -st-louis/

CVG and IND had directs on Delta to Paris in 2019. STL had WOW which stimulated demand significantly with their frequent $49 and $99 flights.