Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

Talk about the ever expanding north side of KC.
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w00lyb00ger
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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Chris Stritzel
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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"The Kansas City area wasn’t a national magnet for population growth during the height of the pandemic. The Northland, however, boomed as homebuyers — largely from the metro area — sought plentiful land and cheaper real estate.

“More people actually (are) relocating from the south to the north, which is odd,” said Chris Fosgate, a Realtor and broker with Keller Williams Kansas City North. “People in Johnson County didn’t want to cross the river north, even go to the airport — heaven forbid. That stigma has changed a bit now.”

The Northland’s growth is evident at Benson Place, a 1,300-home subdivision Hunt Midwest developed in Kansas City’s Shoal Creek Valley. It features townhomes and single-family residences between $550,000 and $675,000. The quickly filling project has two community swimming pools, a fishing lake, a playground and walking trails — amenities that exploded in popularity during the pandemic as families looked for ways to occupy themselves at home.

Multiple Listing Service data indicated that Northland housing inventory increased 4% from last year, compared with 2.9% for the entire metro area, Fosgate said. Much of the activity was driven by homebuilding: Permits in 2020 and 2021 surpassed prepandemic years.

The Northland was primed for an influx of homebuilding about six years prior, when Kansas City added sewer and utilities infrastructure to the 13,000-acre Twin Creeks area, a swath of what had been farmland in Platte and Clay counties between Interstate 29 and U.S. Highway 169.

The permit process in the Northland is shorter and the cost of living lower than in Johnson County, said Randy Vanderpool, a broker with Keller Williams North. The area’s growth also has been expanding beyond residential, including the new $1.5 billion terminal for Kansas City International Airport, an announced data center for Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. and construction of new industrial space.

“The Lee’s Summit areas, Jackson County and then over in Johnson County, they’re not tapped out necessarily on space,” Fosgate said. “But there’s more opportunity, building-wise, happening in the Northland.”

Clay and Platte counties are seeing more high-end development, too. Since 2020, the ReeceNichols-affiliated Wolfe-Sweeney & Courtney team sold 78 properties worth $1 million or more in Platte County and 57 in Clay County. Before the pandemic, no more than a dozen million-dollar homes would sell each year, partner Kristine Courtney said.

High-end buyers are looking for nature and more amenities, said Russ Wolfe, a partner in the ReeceNichols team. Subdivisions around Shoal Creek Golf Course and Staley Farms Golf Club in Clay County, and The National Golf Club of Kansas City in Platte County, have prospered, for example, because they have big houses, are scenic and offer upscale perks.

“They’re looking for more of a staycation,” Wolfe said.

Courtney said the average sales price of Northland homes has jumped about 22% since early 2020. At the end of 2021, the median sales price for the Kansas City metro area was $265,000, about a 13% increase from the prior year.

First-time buyers and others seeking more affordable options are moving deeper into the Northland. Buyers are flocking to Kearney and Smithville, both in Clay and Platte counties, and even farther, to Holt and Plattsburg. Liberty, which used to be a hotbed of activity, has slowed down as prices have risen.

“Kearney has gotten so busy, and it’s almost completely tapped out on being able to start new developments,” Fosgate said.

Although southern Platte County has seen an influx of new housing since the pandemic began, the northern edge, near KCI, remains mostly undeveloped. And Twin Creeks still could add an additional 30,000 homes in the next two decades, Wolfe said.

As interest rates have risen in 2022, the housing market has begun to cool, including homebuilding. Buyers no longer are snapping up homes sight unseen. In Clay County, homes sold in July stayed on the market for an average of 15 days, 7% longer than in July 2021. However, Platte County saw houses sell nearly 16.7% faster than last year’s average of 18 days.

Homebuilders continue to face supply chain delays, and some buyers already wary of higher interest rates have decided to hold off on building a home after hearing that the process can take as long as two years, Courtney said.

But it’s still a seller’s market. The Northland has a little more than a month’s supply of inventory.

“Anything below three months’ supply of inventory is a seller’s market,” Vanderpool said. “What is happening now is nothing more than a normalization of the market.”
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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I don’t want it taking growth from JoCo though- we need to be attracting outsiders. I want all of our suburbs to grow, not pick off eachother.
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GRID
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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AlkaliAxel wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:15 am I don’t want it taking growth from JoCo though- we need to be attracting outsiders. I want all of our suburbs to grow, not pick off eachother.
If you are going to have suburbs in KC, it's MUCH MUCH MUCH better to have those suburbs on the MO side for so many reasons. And having a built up dense Northland is even better yet vs a giant Lee's Summit or something.

It's also closer to the center city, airport etc. The population of metro KC has sprawled way too far south, way past the south leg of the beltway when the north leg of the beltway is still rural.

Clay County financially supports KCMO cultural attractions too both at the city level and county level. You are nuts if you don't think northland growth is better for KC than KS side growth.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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How many toys do you think were purchased at the Toys “R” Us on Barry Road, that are now in the Salvation Army thrift store in the exact location of the former Toys “R” Us on Barry Road?

The circle of life..
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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The article seems a little short on data to back up its thesis. It seems like it mostly touts housing inventory and prices. I would be curious to see if there is any data that supports a significant migration (or even any net positive) from Johnson County to Clay/Platte.

I believe the Northland has been growing at a faster rate (percentage wise) than JoCo for a while now. However JoCo still has a considerably higher population total and I believe the raw numbers of growth have been higher. Perhaps the Northland is now growing at higher numbers, not just just percentage.
GRID wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 8:29 amYou are nuts if you don't think northland growth is better for KC than KS side growth.
There are obvious benefits for KC for northland growth vs JoCo, but there is a big risk as well. The northland gaining more political power could be very dangerous to urban interests.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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I agree that we should not be taking growth from other areas of the Metro but being a true value add. Use it as a catalyst to drive new growth into the Metro, bot just "re-arranging the deck chairs" so to speak.

The Northland has so much raw land for potential development residential, commercial, retail, industrial, office/business. It is all there for the taking.

There is a possibility that too much growth could create a sway away from the Urban core, but I think we might be ok. Having lived in the Northland since I was kid, moved here in 1976, We have spent a lot of time South of the river, downtown, crossroads, Plaza, Brookside, Waldo, etc. Different places over the years but the one area I did not spend a lot of time was Eastern Metro, Blue Springs, Lee's Summit and or way South, deep into Olathe. I think the Northland aligns itself at time, not always, with KCMO ins supporting things like the Zoo, Union Station, the stadiums, etc. We have a view to downtown and we can see the Skyline from Liberty. So having a little closer proximity might help us identify better. But again I know a lot of Northlanders that are like any other suburbanites, not venturing around town, fearful of the "city" etc. I just think that with the Northland easy access to highways, maybe the best in the MEtro, we have always not shied away from journeying to other pockets of town. Again my own view and the friends and family I have who live in the Northland. Perhaps we are just some sort of hip minority, I don't know but I get the same vibe more than I find the opposite. Maybe it gets less adventurous the farther North you go.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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^ nailed it. I have friends and relatives in suburbs all across KC in both KS and MO and in generally, those that live in the Northland seem to interact more often with Downtown and have more favorable opinion of the city. They also have a more "vested "interest in the city since most actually live in KCMO proper. They are also more likely to work in the city or on the MO side as well.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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All anecdotal but my experience getting into residential real estate over the past year paints a mixed picture on this. Working with younger first time home buyers, some have looked to the Northland for better priced entry points than can be found in Johnson County. Most are not moving from Johnson County though. In fact I've experienced notable resistance to the idea of the Northland from multiple first time buyers I've worked with who grew up in JoCo. There's a lot of general interest in the Northland from various buyer profiles but I can't really think of anyone I know from my team who has worked with Johnson County based clients looking to go to the Northland.
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GRID
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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^ I'm sure the number of people moving from JoCo to the Northland is very small. I just think it will be nice to see the 435 inside the northland become somewhat developed before the south is 100 blocks south of 435. It would even help the image of KC some since most of the time when you land at KCI and drive to most of the KC area, you see a lot of farms and undeveloped land. I know it's trivial, but it would make KC seem less rural when you first arrive and get a ride to the stadiums, JoCO etc and it's like you flew into Iowa or something.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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GRID wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 2:07 pm ^ I'm sure the number of people moving from JoCo to the Northland is very small. I just think it will be nice to see the 435 inside the northland become somewhat developed before the south is 100 blocks south of 435. It would even help the image of KC some since most of the time when you land at KCI and drive to most of the KC area, you see a lot of farms and undeveloped land. I know it's trivial, but it would make KC seem less rural when you first arrive and get a ride to the stadiums, JoCO etc and it's like you flew into Iowa or something.
100% agree filling in the Northland is preferable to making Bluhawk into the new Prairie Fire and god knows what the next front line is after that. But in regard to the quote from the article...

“More people actually (are) relocating from the south to the north, which is odd,” said Chris Fosgate, a Realtor and broker with Keller Williams Kansas City North. “People in Johnson County didn’t want to cross the river north, even go to the airport — heaven forbid. That stigma has changed a bit now.”

I've seen no evidence of this.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

Post by AlkaliAxel »

The Northland is an awesome suburb, given its much more tied into downtown than JoCo. It's also got great nature stuff (access right onto the Missouri River, amazing bluffs/hills/hiking, etc). I just want that growth to come from outside the metro. And for all I know it is, because KCBJ tends to exaggerate some numbers.

I don't even agree with their statement "KC didn't benefit from population during Covid"- of the top 40 metro's, only 15 gained during Covid and KC was one of them. Granted it was small, but relatively speaking it was big because almost everyone lost people.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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No change or minimal change is the same as "did not benefit"
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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normalthings wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:01 am No change or minimal change is the same as "did not benefit"
Well then everyone lost among the top 30 metros except for like 3 cities
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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AlkaliAxel wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:42 pm The Northland is an awesome suburb, given its much more tied into downtown than JoCo.
people always say this and i don't understand it at all. "the northland" is enormous and totally divorced from the KCMO city grid south of the river--whereas JoCo ties directly into it. the NE JoCo burbs like fairway, roeland park, PV, mission, old leawood feel like direct extensions of "urban" KCMO. it's a slippery slope to determine where that connectivity ends but JoCo feels much more tied-in to downtown KC to me than the northland. other than downtown NKC, which i admit feels like an offshoot of downtown KC, most of the suburban northland is incredibly isolated from the city. even briarcliff, though only 10 min or so from downtown, feels like a world away since you have to drive at highway speeds for several miles over a bridge and through industrial bottoms. i've lived in the KC metro my entire life, with much of my extended family north of the river, and i dont perceive any better (or worse) attitude towards urban KC from northlanders than folks in JoCo. to me the Northland feels like going "out of town" completely, like you've passed out and woken up in Springfield, MO.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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NE JoCo is a totally different animal and a relatively small part of JoCo now. But I would agree with what you said.
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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Every time I read "Johnson County", I assume they mean south of 95th street, if not south of 435.

NE Johnson County is its own hood, I think a re-branding is in order!
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Re: Northland finally starting to take growth from JoCo

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JoCo is a county of nearly 600,000 people which directly abuts KCMO from 47th all the way south to form a contiguous (sub)urbanized area. JoCo contains multitudes--some aspects more favorable than others--but to say it's somehow more "disconnected" from urban KCMO than the Northland seems incorrect to me. i think JoCo, particularly inside 435, seems much more of a piece with KCMO than most of Jackson County outside of 435.
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