KCRag Forum

The people most likely to get elected senator in Missouri have to be able to win voters in the rural areas. The last three elected senators from Missouri were all from places not St. Louis and Kansas City. Hawley grew up in Lexington; Blunt is from Springfield; and McCaskill was born in Rolla, spent her early childhood in Houston, later moving to Lebanon, and eventually Columbia. As an adult, she lived in Kansas City, then Kirkwood near St. Louis. However, McCaskill ran as a small-town girl turned crime-fighter prosecutor.

The reason I point this out is that registered rural voters tend to always turn out, whereas urban voters don't always. Rural voters tend to be older voters as well.

Lucas Kunce, a veteran, has launched his campaign after setting up an exploratory committee in January.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/lucaskuncemo
Website: https://lucaskunce.com

On the Republican side, Jay Ashcroft is expected to launch his bid soon. Eric Schmitt and Jason Smith are also considering it. Let's not forget Greitens.
https://twitter.com/RealDylanMO/status/ ... 6758880257

Roy Blunt is out. So who’s in? A list of possible Missouri GOP senate candidates

https://missouriindependent.com/2021/03 ... andidates/

Ugh this whole thing is terrible. We are going to go from a moderately Trumpy R to a very Trumpy R (Greitens, Ashcroft or Schmidt.) Combined with Hawley our politicans are shifting farther and farther to the right while some other traditional Republican states like TX, GA, AZ are moving more towards the center as the GOP sheds support from suburban voters and continues to lose overwhelming with young and minority voters.

The 2031 redistricting will be the start of a shift away from rural power. 2041 will be even bigger.

Blunt won a plurality in 2016 (78k votes) and Hawley won a majority in 2018 (140k votes)

Kander won a majority in Clay County in 2016 and McCaskell won a plurality in 2018

Rural areas are shrinking, from Bush to Trump they shifted down by 2% of the population but they're aging. So it's going to accelerate. Over 65 went up by 3% in the same year so this shows us younger people are moving away and having kids in suburban areas.

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... mmunities/
there's a nice map showing what is suburban vs rural

Immigrants have made up the majority of population growth since 1965
The majority of rural counties have fewer people in 2016 than 2000

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo ... rs-to-come
This estimates the number of retirees peaks in 2023. So each year the number over age 65 will decline a little on the average

Today the youngest baby boomer is age 56. From 55 and 65 1 million will pass and another 1 million will pass each year by 70, each and every year in total. This is reoccuring every year where the number from 55 to 65 adds up to 1 million.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... milli.html

The last baby boomer turns 65 in 2029. By 2031 about 10 million people or about 15% of boomers will have passed.


https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/registeredvoters/2020
here's registered voter numbers

If we take away 100% of voters from the 15% of boomers who pass by 2030 from the 18% of the population in counties excluding the 12 biggest

In the next ten years there would be a decline in ~46,000 rural voters or 1% of the electorate. To be replaced with mostly suburban and urban voters. It won't double the Democrat vote but based on demographic trend there will be more Democrats in 2030 than today

There's a lot of elections where 1 percent can turn elections at the state house level.

edit: fix a logic error

Ashcroft declined to run.

Schmitt is reportedly in.

Greitens is in

What’s the likelihood Lucas runs? I’d be thrilled if he did, as it would allow us to get a pro development mayor in

Anthony_Hugo98 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:44 am What’s the likelihood Lucas runs? I’d be thrilled if he did, as it would allow us to get a pro development mayor in

zero

Mark McCloskey is in on the Republican side.

On the Democratic side, Jewel Kelly and Spencer Toder are in.

All three are from St. Louis

grovester wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:45 pm Has Sly weighed in?

He'd be a much better candidate than Lucas.

Only chance is to mobilize the urban vote like crazy and hope the R's nominate a kook.

Well it looks like half of this is gonna happen since the R's seem to trying to nominate a kook (Greitens) so where does the offer half fit in to mobilize Dems here?

What's everyone's thoughts on Lucas Kunce? Been following him more and more and love his positioning on the issues especially in a state like Missouri.

FlippantCitizen wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:38 pm What's everyone's thoughts on Lucas Kunce? Been following him more and more and love his positioning on the issues especially in a state like Missouri.

He’s nice, but I think the Dems are gonna blow a major opportunity to beat Greitens here if they don’t run a well-known Dem like Koster or Nixon.

The Dems don't have a major opportunity, it's going to be an ugly election for them no matter who they run, no matter who the GOP runs. It's a red state in what is shaping up to be a GOP wave election. It's like expecting a Republican to somehow win California in 2018.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:49 pm

FlippantCitizen wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:38 pm What's everyone's thoughts on Lucas Kunce? Been following him more and more and love his positioning on the issues especially in a state like Missouri.

He’s nice, but I think the Dems are gonna blow a major opportunity to beat Greitens here if they don’t run a well-known Dem like Koster or Nixon.

I kind of disagree seeing how the retread Dem candidate in VA just lost.

Would be nice to have a young vibrant candidate to mobilize the youth and perhaps minority vote, if not for this election, then to build momentum to 2024.

Sometimes they put up a sacrifice candidate when all is lost so they don't taint a potential newcomer.

I'm calling it now.

Attorney General Eric Schmitt will win the Republican primary, and beat any Democrat.

FangKC wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:07 pm I'm calling it now.

Attorney General Eric Schmitt will win the Republican primary, and beat any Democrat.

That's the rub, isn't it?

If the GOP puts up an establishment candidate, they win.

If they put up a wingnut, then it's a toss up.

For Pres Primary from establishment perspective would think their ideal is one relatively 'level headed' moderate establishment candidate against Trump and DeSantis (and perhaps other right wing extremists). Trump/DeSantis/extremist votes split potentially allowing higher chance for the one establishment candidate. They need to be careful to present just one establishment/moderate in Primary along with 2-3+ extremes to have a shot, right? Or am I missing something. (wine post)

edit: Meaning isn't that the general tactic from a less popular faction within a party to grab share for any primary.

Schmitt is not moderate in my opinion. He's a Trump warrior. He's got name recognition now, and holds the highest state-wide office -- among those running in the primary so far.

I don't think Missourians will elect Greitens again if they have any reasonable choice. Missourians are conservative in many ways (even Democrats). Many rural Missourians (which skew older) will see Greitens as an embarrassing pervert, and worry that if they elected him again what other skeletons would be uncovered.

Schmitt has already won statewide office twice. Hartzler is well-known, but has only won a congressional seat. Never a statewide race.

It’s very early to make any predictions about the 2022 races. Historically the party in power loses in off year elections, but not always. There are many variables that could affect elections nearly a year away-COVID issues, economic issues, the effect of the new legislation recently passed, the investigation into the Jan 6th assault on the Capitol building, etc. and who knows what else could pop up in the next year to affect the election?