Economy

KC topics that don't fit anywhere else.
earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

Cerner seems to be committing to a long term WFH model. I don't see them committing to traditional downtown office leases but could see them using downtown flex space as an annex (WeWork, PlexPod) allowing workers to bounce between this space and new Bannister campus. That might encourage more Cerner employees to move downtown. Garmin should do the same but probably less of a chance.

KC is doing a great job growing Sci/Tech services jobs that tends to be filled by well educated, ahead of Nashville though not Austin. KC is not attracting tier 1 tech jobs though from major tech companies like Austin/Nashville/Raleigh, etc. getting FAAMG tech/development roles and related companies like Nashville scoring Oracle. KC probably needs a research or higher tier university to draw those roles from those companies.
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normalthings
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Re: Economy

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KC has passed Pittsburgh in employment and labor force. Could change back as Pitt recovers. Pitt also has better bones for sucess university, transit, high tech jobs, etc
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FangKC
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Re: Economy

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Any downtown tech jobs will likely come from new companies, or ones that are small now, headed by a younger generation who want to live downtown or in the central city. I don't see Garmin or Cerner changing from their campus models.
earthling
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Re: Economy

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^Not change from campus model but potentially expand into flex space. I've worked via Plexpod and noticed they've had a couple of the large suburban engineering firms as tenants (before COVID) - saw at both Xroads and Westport. WeWork has mentioned the trend of large companies that attract creative types are gaining them as tenants in same market, especially those that have mature WFA/WFH onboarding. Cerner appears to be committing to long term WFA so could realistically consider this, especially if their employees pressure them into it as the flex hybrid trend becomes more known. Any company that plans long term WFH could easily adapt into flex space. Garmin seems more rigid so don't know if they'd go there but they probably should to attract talent.

The nice thing about larger flex space providers is that tenants can easily use any of the flex locations anywhere in metro/US/world, not tied to just one site.

So downtown/midtown flex space could attract any established suburban companies over time, especially those with mature WFA models that need to attract creative types that may desire urban atmosphere.
earthling
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Re: Economy

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normalthings wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:54 pm KC has passed Pittsburgh in employment and labor force. Could change back as Pitt recovers. Pitt also has better bones for sucess university, transit, high tech jobs, etc
Yeah Pittsburgh seems to have everything in place to take off again... Carnegie Mellon, great downtown, good transit. Like Cleveland, felt like they have a self-loathing and self-deprecating culture holding them back. Not sure how common but felt that way when I've visited both. Really like both cities, great old bones that are still functional yet both are still stagnant overall with a few great standouts.

One of the best things happening in KC lately is the investment into East Side (and KCK improving over last decade) that should really help the metro health more broadly on many levels if it can maintain momentum. KC's improving demographic disbursement/integration maybe indirectly plays a role too. STL/Cleveland/Pitt seem to be too focused on certain corridors.
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normalthings
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Re: Economy

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Interested to see what happens with Employment/LF. Will it keep going up or bow to usual yearly ebbs and flows?
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: Economy

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earthling wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 1:03 am
normalthings wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:54 pm KC has passed Pittsburgh in employment and labor force. Could change back as Pitt recovers. Pitt also has better bones for sucess university, transit, high tech jobs, etc
Yeah Pittsburgh seems to have everything in place to take off again... Carnegie Mellon, great downtown, good transit. Like Cleveland, felt like they have a self-loathing and self-deprecating culture holding them back. Not sure how common but felt that way when I've visited both. Really like both cities, great old bones that are still functional yet both are still stagnant overall with a few great standouts.

One of the best things happening in KC lately is the investment into East Side (and KCK improving over last decade) that should really help the metro health more broadly on many levels if it can maintain momentum. KC's improving demographic disbursement/integration maybe indirectly plays a role too. STL/Cleveland/Pitt seem to be too focused on certain corridors.
By "self-loathing" do you mean the residents say things like "our downtown can't handle that" or "our city is meant for light rail" for example or things like this? Lol
earthling
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Re: Economy

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^Nope, not like that.
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Re: Economy

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normalthings wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:16 pm Interested to see what happens with Employment/LF. Will it keep going up or bow to usual yearly ebbs and flows?
August metro employment as reported by companies/employers showing industry breakdown will come out tomorrow. Aug labor force data and employment reported by workers coming end of month.
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Re: Economy

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KC Aug metro employment (as reported by employers) only about 4600 jobs away from returning to 2019 level..
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US Aug employment still around 2016/17 level..
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https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
earthling
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Re: Economy

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The MO side of metro has been taking off, exceeded 2019...
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The KS side of metro is holding metro back overall from passing up 2019, improving more slowly even though taking less of a hit. At about 2017 level...
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: Economy

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Is the MO side growth mostly to the downtown/urban core growth of KC?
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normalthings
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Re: Economy

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AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:51 am Is the MO side growth mostly to the downtown/urban core growth of KC?
I would bet no
earthling
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Re: Economy

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The biggest jumps of employment on MO side are manufacturing, pro biz (office) and construction, so that gives an indication of which districts have most of job growth. BTW, leisure/hospitality has nearly returned to 2019 on MO side.

This report is from employer perspective so in most cases reported where the office/site is based, not where the worker lives (or works from home) but not sure how construction jobs are tallied. Unsure if out of the office of employment or the job site. If a KS based construction company is building in KCMO, do the KS-based construction workers pay KCMO and MO state income tax?
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Re: Economy

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States that ended COVID unemployment benefits see no boost in job growth

https://www.axios.com/covid-unemploymen ... mployement


Amid COVID surge, states that cut benefits still see no hiring boost


https://www.reuters.com/business/amid-c ... e=facebook
earthling
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Re: Economy

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^From second link...
Goldman Sachs analysts, looking at individual level data, have found that the end of the payments did increase the probability of someone moving from unemployment to a job, and expect the national expiration of the extra unemployment insurance to lead to the addition of an extra 1.3 million jobs by the end of the year.
With drastic swings in several industries, some higher than normal (warehouse, skilled labor, STEM/pro biz jobs) and others lower than normal (leisure/hospitality, certain retail, telcom) some are going to have to switch industries and/or move. A drastic cutoff of UI benefits isn't the solution but rather unemployment offices working with unemployed on a plan to switch or improve skills. Missouri also requires submitting 3 job applications per week to get benefits, I don't think all states do that. That significantly improves chances of finding something but unemployed may need to switch to another industry for lower pay for a while. And there clearly are many taking advantage of extra benefits.. why go back to a small restaurant job. Small restaurants are/were permanently closing in some cases due to lack of finding workers because UI benefits were good enough not to work.

KC is fortunate to have a highly diverse economy, making it relatively easier for those say in restaurant industry to get a warehouse job. Lots of opportunities to switch industries and job growth above US average.
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FangKC
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Re: Economy

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I've been paying attention to the analysis of this issue and several of the same things keep being stated:

There are millions of jobs needing to be filled, but those jobs require skills that many workers don't have. Many of the employers in the economy have under 50 workers, and can't afford to train people for the jobs. Many potential workers don't have the proper education to do the job. This is a national education pipeline problem. The other issue is many workers cannot take the time off to update their education to get these jobs. They are juggling too many things already. This is especially true for women.

Secondly, many workers took the opportunity while getting the extra benefits to further their education on their own, and changed careers; and/or started their own business and it has yet to show up in the economy and statistics. Lower-end employers suffered the most from this situation because people who worked in restaurants--and were thrown out of work for months because of COVID--decided to find a more reliable job situation. Same with seniors working part-time in fast food. They just quit for good.

Thirdly, there's a large number of potential workers that are still having childcare issues because of remote learning. Some of the smaller child care operations shut down permanently and have not come back.

Additionally, a lot of older workers that were still employed before the pandemic choose to retire instead of going back to work. This took a fairly sizeable chunk out of the workforce among both highly-skilled workers, and minimum-wage workers who decided to retire instead of risking their health for lower wages. An example of this might be a woman who cleaned hospital rooms. She's married to an electrician, who makes decent wages, their kids are grown, and they can live on his salary until he also retires.

Finally, there is a subset of workers who are simply too afraid to work during the pandemic, and won't go back to work even if they lose unemployment benefits. Some have legitimate concerns because of underlying health issues, and others simply are risk-adverse and are in situations where they can survive without a job.
earthling
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Re: Economy

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^Those are good points and while drastic cutoff of UI benefits isn't the answer, there can be a more selective approach to justify continuing benefits. For example you mention some took the extra benefits to improve skills - that can be reported to UI office and justify continuing. But someone who could take a restaurant or warehouse job but chooses not to should be encouraged to take those and not be allowed to continue benefits.

Some employment agencies suggest a more selective approach toward reducing benefits until job availability back to 2019. There clearly are some who still need benefits beyond normal conditions (specifically due to pandemic) and there are also clearly some who exploit it. A balanced approach would be developing appropriate processes to assess rather than drastic cutoffs. Unfortunately we have one sided politically driven views/decisions rather than a balanced understanding that can develop a reasonable approach. Many on the right just want to kill it off cold turkey, many on the left don't recognize many actually do exploit the benefits (more than before pandemic).
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Re: Economy

Post by phuqueue »

Very important that we stop people "exploiting" unemployment benefits so we can get back to our normal routine of exploiting people
earthling
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Re: Economy

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Ideal to stop all exploitation. Acknowledging where it happens is the challenge on both sides of fence.
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