Economy

[alejandro46]

Here's a great story on that suburban-style Conagra campus along the Missouri River and its destruction of Jobbers Canyon - until then one of the largest U.S. historic warehouse districts in the country.

https://omaha.com/business/local/big-bu ... b99d3.html

This was a good and wild read. Would probably better belong in the Omaha thread.

Looking back it's obvious to fault the local leaders for rolling over to Conagra and their demands for a suburban office space. What about if 1990s Cerner wanted to buldoze the West Bottoms and build a similar WHQ campus like in NKC there? At the time, I sympathize with the Omaha leaders, nobody wants to be seen as that person who let millions of high paying jobs walk, especially from a place like Omaha where Fortune 500s arent a dime a dozen. It's a good lesson I think that even us in KC can learn from.

[CorneliusFB]

Sat on the Cushman Wakefield 2022 global forecast this morning. Their senior economist was bullish about the general economy in the US noting a 90% chance for continuing economic expansion (& only a 10% chance for a recession) in 2022. Notes positive signs for retail and office sectors. Only thing the call wasn’t bullish about was industrial, noting the sector’s history of getting overbuilt. Said that it’s time to start looking for other opportunities, at a better value, once everyone is talking about how hot and great a sector is.

[earthling]

^Is an awkward era for forecasting given so many uncertainties but it's probably safe to say 2022 will be better than 2020/2021. Many parts of retail doing well, others not. Office in an unknown flux until WFH/hybrid dust settles as it's now a thing beyond pandemic, though office job growth is relatively hotter than other industries - who knows. Hotel in a weird lopsided recovery where leisure travel is hot, often better than 2019 (see Interstate hotels, Miami, beach communities, etc) but biz/conference travel not (see Boston, SF, MSP, Chicago) at 30% of 2019 by some measures. "Industrial" warehouse construction is maybe overheated right now but there could be a future in online shopping expanding even further. Industrial manufacturing may have a shot to increase in US given a drive to depend less on Asia by both political parties, but not enough momentum to make a call.

I haven't seen this forecast but the analysts I relatively trust more as a PE investor are those that talk in point blank terms of uncertainties within opportunities and what the exposures/risks are, not those that make absolute forecasts.

[CrossroadsUrbanApts]

Here's a great story on that suburban-style Conagra campus along the Missouri River and its destruction of Jobbers Canyon - until then one of the largest U.S. historic warehouse districts in the country.

https://omaha.com/business/local/big-bu ... b99d3.html

This was a good and wild read. Would probably better belong in the Omaha thread.

Looking back it's obvious to fault the local leaders for rolling over to Conagra and their demands for a suburban office space. What about if 1990s Cerner wanted to buldoze the West Bottoms and build a similar WHQ campus like in NKC there? At the time, I sympathize with the Omaha leaders, nobody wants to be seen as that person who let millions of high paying jobs walk, especially from a place like Omaha where Fortune 500s arent a dime a dozen. It's a good lesson I think that even us in KC can learn from.

I think that a good comment and I agree with you. If I'm a council member, I probably say "let's do the deal". It's tough when the city staff are likely more reactive than proactive on such matters - you have to deal with the proposals in front of you, not the ideal proposal that only exists in theory.

[Cratedigger]

Not sure if this is right thread for it, but CBRE's KC office is starting a new Finance division. Hiring Kyle Tucker, a SVP at Northmarq. Might help grease the wheels a bit in KC?

Leah FitzGerald, managing director for the firm's local office, said in the release. "He joins CBRE at the perfect time, as we expect 2022 Kansas City investment activity to exceed 2021 volumes across all property types, with numerous investors seeking financing."

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... ision.html

[earthling]

IRS planning to hire 10K more to address backlog. No indication for KC additions but article points out some challenges in KC...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... og-hiring/

At the agency’s Kansas City, Mo., tax processing center, employees are working six-day weeks with mandatory overtime, said Shannon Ellis, president of the local chapter of the National Treasury Employees Union, which represents IRS employees.

For years, the IRS has struggled to attract local job applicants, as nearby employers boost their own wages. A local Amazon facility is offering $19 an hour, she said. A nearby Target just began advertising $24 an hour wages. Entry level IRS employees in Kansas City make $15 an hour. The staffing crunch in Kansas City could worsen, she said. Nearly half of the campus’s 5,000 workers will be eligible for retirement in the next two years.

Plans to hire more employees could improve morale and productivity, Ellis said, but she and her colleagues remain skeptical. They’ve seen the IRS advertise for job openings previously, only for the agency to fall well short of its recruitment goals or for newly hired colleagues to leave their jobs within months because of frustrating working conditions.

“Expediting the hiring process is one thing and that can help, but you’ve still got to get the people interested,” she said. “You’ve got to increase the wages to entice people to come.”

[earthling]

NY Times also focuses on KC site...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/us/p ... -2022.html

[FangKC]

The Republicans have been attempting to gut the IRS for years.

https://www.propublica.org/article/how- ... was-gutted

[FangKC]

February jobs rose a surprisingly strong 678,000, unemployment edged lower while wages were flat

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 678,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/jobs-re ... -2022.html

[earthling]

Jan BLS data as reported by labor force/workers. The oddly high labor force over summer 2021 did subside as with usual cycles but KC labor force still recovered/exceeded better than US avg. Employment cycled back down some from summer peak but recovery also quite a bit better than US avg, well above 2019 level. KC's ten year path chugs along almost as if pandemic didn't happen.



US employment accelerating some upwards but still not caught up with KC recovery, around 2019 level...

[earthling]

A one year slowdown in construction forecast for this year though higher than 2019/20, basically lower on the commercial/civic side but notably up for residential and institutional. Might not be factoring the just now official $800M Meta data center.

Also note the slowdown in forecasted hotel construction even though KC has 2nd largest hotel room pipeline in Midwest. The pipeline was reduced from last report, may reduce yet again or delayed further.

[earthling]

Is interesting how much of a slowdown in San Diego, quite a bit less going on than KC for a much bigger market. Upcoming forecast not posted yet...
https://www.enr.com/articles/51801-city ... -san-diego




Portland also not what would be expected for a previously hot trending market larger than KC. As well as STL.

edit: KC also passed up Detroit as well.

[FlippantCitizen]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/somet ... 1648312936

Rosy little write up that I stumbled across.

[AlkaliAxel]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/somet ... 1648312936

Rosy little write up that I stumbled across.

First of all, cool glitzy photo there

Secondly, it makes sense what they’re saying. Two tech workers I know were working for big coastal tech companies until 2020 pandemic, then they eventually quit and joined KC tech firms. Another friend opened a small tech startup here recently.

[earthling]

KC isn't maybe as strong of a tech market as the article implies (when averaging out all reports) but is decent for its market size. What the article does properly project is that KC's economy is pretty well diversified so it may not be among tops in any many categories (outside animal health, freight rail) but the metro doesn't get hit hard when certain industries take a hit because of the fairly broad industry diversity.

KC does need to broaden into new industries and data centers are a good opportunity, in a good position to fairly quickly jump into a top tier player (and the economic impact is better than most realize). Would be nice if KC could gain on Life Sciences but strength in Animal Science offsets that. A stronger metro university would help KC keep a foot in upcoming industries, should be a top 5 goal.

[earthling]

KC in top 10 of WSJ/Moody's hottest job markets, but note how low ranking the change in wages, last column. Has been mentioned several times that KC is in good shape but has a wage growth problem.

METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
OVERALL RANK
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RANK
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RANK
PAYROLL CHANGE RANK
CHANGE IN LABOR FORCE SIZE RANK
CHANGE IN AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES RANK

Code: Select all

Austin-Round Rock, TX.......	1	17	1	1	3	4
Nashville-Davidson-Murfr, TN	2	8	4	11	14	10
Raleigh, NC....................	3	9	16	4	4	16
Salt Lake City, UT............	4	1	2	2	24	24
Jacksonville, FL...............	5	10	19	15	1	19
Atlanta-Sandy Springs GA...	6	7	20	20	9	21
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	7	38	3	16	6	18
Kansas City, MO-KS..........	8	11	5	19	7	43
Boston-Cambridge, MA-NH...	9	26	9	12	17	22
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL...	10	13	45	9	2	23
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	11	31	10	14	11	27
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	12	28	11	25	28	3
Portland-Vancouver, OR-WA	12	27	15	29	13	11
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	14	36	28	6	12	14
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN....	15	4	12	31	20	39
Charlotte-Concord-, NC-SC	16	18	18	23	18	35
Birmingham-Hoover, AL.....	17	2	46	17	23	29
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL..	18	33	47	27	8	5
San Jose-Sunnyvale-S, CA...	19	22	17	44	37	1
Memphis, TN-MS-AR.........	20	42	38	21	15	8
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	21	32	43	8	10	36
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI..	22	21	8	18	48	37
Oklahoma City, OK..........	23	3	24	40	16	52
Minneapolis-St. Paul-, MN-WI	24	6	6	43	51	30
Louisville/Jefferson , KY-IN	25	12	25	26	35	42
Los Angeles-Long Beach-, CA	26	55	33	39	5	9
Washington-Arlington-, DC-	27	30	7	37	50	20
Columbus, OH................	27	19	13	32	42	38
Rochester, N.................Y	29	34	42	7	19	45
Las Vegas-Henderson-, NV...	30	53	40	3	22	31
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN........	30	16	23	24	38	48
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	30	39	26	13	21	50
Milwaukee-Waukesha-Wes, WI	33	14	22	50	26	40
St. Louis, MO-IL..............	34	15	21	45	40	34
San Francisco-Oakland-, CA	35	35	30	49	44	2
Baltimore-Columbia-, MD...	35	37	14	30	46	33
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	37	25	41	42	41	12
Riverside-San Bernardino-], CA	38	50	51	22	25	15
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Nia, NY	39	40	49	10	27	47
Chicago-Naperville-, IL-IN-WI	40	48	29	46	36	17

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cities-job ... 639645#_=_

[daGOAT]

wages going up should be a huge priority.

[AlkaliAxel]

That’s some good company they’re hanging with. If the wages aren't going up that usually means people are moving in at the same rate or faster than the jobs are being filled. Might be some decent population growth too.

[Cratedigger]

Will low wages in the area lead to more companies shifting back office/operations work to the area? (Finance, accounting, human resources, information technology, other support staff)

The low wages doesn't seem great for attracting or keeping top talent long term though.

[normalthings]

Will low wages in the area lead to more companies shifting back office/operations work to the area? (Finance, accounting, human resources, information technology, other support staff)

The low wages doesn't seem great for attracting or keeping top talent long term though.

low wages is connected to talent pool

Area is not producing talent with advanced skills like other low cost areas are