I hate to say it but I would not count Trump out yet in 2024. Biden got elected because a majority of people despised Trump not because he was a particularly strong candidate. It took a massive voter turnout to make that happen.phuqueue wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:01 pmI would not argue that. The margins were thin in both elections, but they seem to be trending in the same direction as Ohio before them and, well, Missouri before that. Hanging your hat on winning Wisconsin by less than 1%, where the guy you beat was a historically unpopular president in the middle of bungling a pandemic, seems ill-advised to me.grovester wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:53 pm But then Trump went and lost MI, WI, and PA in 2020 by the same margin (or more) that he won in 2016.
Meanwhile seemingly safe red states like AZ and GA go blue.
I would argue that Trump's wave crested in 2016 and he will bet beat by a bigger margin in 2024.
10 years ago, Republicans were only one cycle removed from winning in Ohio (for the second time in a row), Iowa, and Florida (also twice in a row), so I don't know about "pipe dream."AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:12 pm 10 years ago, it was a pipe dream that a Republican could ever win OH, PA, WI, MI, ME, MN or heck even Iowa. Even FL is solid GOP now. So...they sacrificed GA and maybe AZ now? They'll take that deal any day of the week. They might lose some, like in 2020, but they'll also stand a much better chance to win than the Romney/Bush 2012 coalition does.
The Republicans have done what they could since the election to make sure that kind of turnout doesn't happen in the contested states where they have some control. Also, Biden's approval ratings are very poor right now and he's going to need to make a pretty big effort to turn those numbers around. The republicans are going to keep nominating candidates that much of the country finds repugnant (no doubt about that) it's just whether or not the democrats can counter with a credible candidate that can motivate the moderates in both parties and independents to vote their way. Biden is definitely a moderate but he may not be that candidate.