KCRag Forum

KCPowercat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:07 pm

earthling wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:30 am There are still thousands of hotels closed

Where is this data? I don't disagree I'm just interested in the #s. Also how many have decided to cease operations versus still planning to reopen.

From this report, granted it's Q3. Difficult to read but as of Q3 there were a few thousand still closed according to this. Omicron didn't help.
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... hboard.pdf

beautyfromashes wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:13 pm Isn't occupancy normally lower this time of year though? Hotels need 60% yearly occupancy to break even. But, they normally are fully booked in the summer with vacation travel which makes up for lower percentages in February, March, etc.

Normally around 55-60% US average in Jan before Covid as of course warm winter markets do well. The graph shows 45% now but that's also with many hotels probably still closed so likely effectively lower than that if you factor closings.

KCPowercat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:44 pm This "expert" says the break even wa 47% pre pandemic

In 2020, the break-even occupancy for the average full-service hotel dropped from 47% to 30%

https://www.costar.com/article/23042169 ... ancy-ratio

The conversations I heard for hotels deciding to stay closed or open up during the darkest times was like 10%. Obviously that's just anacodeal and each hotel/owner is different.

Will give their methodology benefit of doubt but last 10 years I've consistently seen about 60% reported as break even point (data investors use rather than what comes from industry shills) and is also in the territory for the hotels I've been invested in. They didn't show profit at under 55% until cutting corners and reducing staff.

I am reading into some of our peers. These numbers come from various articles and tourism websites so not an exact science.

IND is at 8000-9000 proposed, under construction, or open downtown rooms, 33,000 in the metro.

St. Louis has 7500+ downtown, 40,000 in the metro. Fast LRT to hotel clusters in Clayton, etc.

Cincinnati: around 4,000 downtown? Not many recent sources and one of their big hotels shut down and is being bulldozed

Memphis has about 24,000 in the Metro and 4,000 proposed, under construction, or open downtown.

KC has 34000 in the metro. Not sure of the current downtown count. Does anyone know? I am not necessarily advocating that we increase the metro count but instead increase the % downtown.

This shows all Midwest metro room supply and pipeline, though hasn't been updated since Q2/2021...
https://www.nmrk.com/insights/market-re ... et-reports

It shows over 35K rooms in KC metro as of last summer and over 36K before pandemic. You show 34K rooms, source? It wouldn't be surprising if more hotels closed but if the case, which ones? I think downtown KC is at about 7K rooms with Sheraton back but unclear.

earthling wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:40 pm You show 34K rooms, source?

VisitKC has 34K on their website and it shows up in some other sources that I assume just copied their website.

Hopefully there haven't been more closings since summer but wouldn't be surprising. Or maybe Newmark counts hotels/motels that VisitKC does not find convention/visitor worthy.

Room counts as of today: ~5,600 Downtown (includes Crown Center); ~16,000 KCMO; ~36,000 Metro-wide

^Source?

earthling wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:02 pm^Source?

STR

Link2 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:55 pm Room counts as of today: ~5,600 Downtown (includes Crown Center); ~16,000 KCMO; ~36,000 Metro-wide

So we need to be looking at a 60% increase over the next decade to compete with IND and others. I guess streetcar to UMKC may help to connect the Plaza area hotels to downtown convention facilities boosting our functional number.

^When free fare streetcar is running between DT/Plaza, it will be one contiguous downtown by many measures economically speaking. Some agencies already consider the stretch as 'downtown'. Future infill will blur the lines even further. What we now call Xroads/Crown Center as part of 'downtown' used to be considered 'midtown'.

Q4 2021 KC metro...
https://www.nmrk.com/storage-nmrk/uploa ... s-City.pdf

Metro occupancy just under 50% compared to about 65% pre-pandemic, a bit below Midwest average. RevPAR notably lower than pre-pandemic, also slightly lower than Midwest avg. Supply has surpassed 2019 level, approaching 36K rooms. KC's pipeline for planned hotels has shrunk since early last year but still high among Midwest. Several thousand more rooms planned/proposed.

Other Midwest markets...
https://www.nmrk.com/insights/market-re ... et-reports

Interesting they still have the Fed Reserve conversion and Hotel Bravo! projects in the pipeline. My friend at Leow's has told me that occupancy has generally been hit or miss but I think the entire hotel market, specifically downtown, is expected to increase significantly next Spring. Hopefully in the meantime summer tourism is strong and then before you know it it'll be football season again which, per my friend, provided an uptick in occupancy especially in the playoffs.

Nationally, interstate hotels are still doing better than most downtown hotels but haven't found anything on recent DTKC occupancy. Downtown events are returning so should see more recovery but no indication how long it will take to get downtown back to 2019 level. Markets like Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, San Fran that had higher % biz travel and biz conferences are expected to take longest to recover.

Leisure travel has been hot, biz travel still not.

Yes, but we're lucky to be hosting he NAIA, Big XII tournament, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and the NFL Draft all in a 6 week span immediately after our new airport opens.

^Yup, all in the Leisure travel category.

daGOAT wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:29 pm Yes, but we're lucky to be hosting he NAIA, Big XII tournament, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and the NFL Draft all in a 6 week span immediately after our new airport opens.

And potentially the AFC Championship a month before that too. Lots of big events the early part of the year.

Very wise of them to realize this in 2020 and push up the airport to March 1st.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 3:40 pm

daGOAT wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:29 pm Yes, but we're lucky to be hosting he NAIA, Big XII tournament, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and the NFL Draft all in a 6 week span immediately after our new airport opens.

And potentially the AFC Championship a month before that too. Lots of big events the early part of the year.

Very wise of them to realize this in 2020 and push up the airport to March 1st.

And all this activity is in addition to an already jam-packed convention calendar over the same timeframe. The first half of 2023 really does look extremely promising for KC.

No doubt I'll throw in 2024's KC Current Stadium, 2025's streetcar openings, and 2026's potential World Cup involvement and say it's looking like good times in Kansas City to me.