KC metro growth and migration stats

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FangKC
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by FangKC »

Keep in mind these populations shifts might be an anomaly because of the pandemic causing shifts based on unemployment, work-from-home, and people fleeing the high costs of certain cities while their income might be reduced, or gone. Some of this might be temporary migration, and people might return to those cities. I read an article recently that said large cities like New York, San Francisco, Miami, and Boston had also seen a large reduction in immigrants due to Trump's immigration policy. I saw today that the Biden Administration has agreed to accept 100,000 refugees from Ukraine.

I know several people that left NYC, and are now back, or planning to go back very soon.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

Feds often revise data and the yearly methodology is different from the official census, so may have different results. But broad decisions are made from this data whether we accept it as accurate or not.

These are odd times though and other indicators have pointed to significant migrations as well.
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GRID
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by GRID »

OKC really starting to show signs of taking growth up a notch. I hate the town, but for some reason, it's been growing a decent clip. I wonder if it will soon become another southern boom town like Austin and Nashville.
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FlippantCitizen
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by FlippantCitizen »

GRID wrote: Thu Mar 24, 2022 3:45 pm OKC really starting to show signs of taking growth up a notch. I hate the town, but for some reason, it's been growing a decent clip. I wonder if it will soon become another southern boom town like Austin and Nashville.
Yeah it's really been gaining momentum even pre-covid. No idea personally what the appeal is or what the underlying reasons are. What are the big employers there?
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Cratedigger
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by Cratedigger »

Think it has anything to do with the MAPS program they implemented? Some cool stuff has happened over the past 30 years there because of it.

https://www.okc.gov/government/maps-3/maps-history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropoli ... jects_Plan
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by AlkaliAxel »

FlippantCitizen wrote: Thu Mar 24, 2022 4:05 pm
Yeah it's really been gaining momentum even pre-covid. No idea personally what the appeal is or what the underlying reasons are. What are the big employers there?
Main thing is it's a good climate. It's got NBA for a decade now. State capital, they're in on streetcars. Some nice mountain ranges an hour or so away.

But I don't think it will be a Nashville.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

There isn't really anything that stands out for OKC except that it's 'in the South' and nearly all of the South is taking off unless it has something that drags it down, which OKC doesn't seem to have. OKC should hum along nicely with solid growth but hard to imagine it getting to Austin/Nashville hotness as they also have the music history that they capitalized on in addition to universities and state capitol.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by FlippantCitizen »

State capital makes sense but NBA? Doubt that really explains anything. Climate seems just as humid and brutal in the summer as here or anywhere in the south, milder winters though.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by GRID »

Just the alternative to the endless sprawl of DFW alone is probably enough to make it a semi boom town of the future. I just don't see the appeal of the place. I would live in TX way before OK.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

Core counties of most major metros took a pretty big hit, including some southern cities like Dallas, Orlando, Atlanta. Jackson County MO only lost a few hundred.

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^Many outer counties were stripped out above. All counties...
https://www2.census.gov/programs-survey ... 1-pop.xlsx
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

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^This sort of proves my point about Indy growing almost exclsively through its suburbs and not its downtown. KC is more urban growing
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

I left out Columbus core county. It also lost more than Jackson Co.

Franklin County, Ohio 1,323,807 1,324,013 1,321,414 -2599

Also note that despite continuing Nashville boom, its core county (Davidson) took a bigger hit than KC's and even STL Co.

Next couple years' numbers will be interesting, to see which core counties make a return. There may be some big winners and big losers that could set the stage for the decade.

KC hasn't been either a boom or bust metro ever since the golden age era, even during a pandemic.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

MO came out fairly well for Midwest, only Indiana did better. Kansas took a small hit. The Carolinas got a pretty decent chunk. Could see NorthEast invasion turning NC bluer and bluer.

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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by ericwyner »

earthling wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:30 am MO came out fairly well for Midwest, only Indiana did better. Kansas took a small hit. The Carolinas got a pretty decent chunk. Could see NorthEast invasion turning NC bluer and bluer.

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you assume all Yankee transplants are liberal, a lot of them are conservative retirees coming for low taxes
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

^Nah, not really based on assumptions but rather history of NC migration. Of course not all transplants are blue... but statistically speaking most to NC lean blue.

NC was solidly red in the 80s and has been shifting blue from 2000s heavily due to migration, now a tight purple state. There was an even bigger wave of NC in-migration in latter 2000s and it contributed to the blue shift. The most recent NC incoming wave may not be the largest but pretty good chance a higher % from the larger cities along I95 corridor now that the mass exits are mainly from large cities.
Last edited by earthling on Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by AlkaliAxel »

I'm convinced most of the reason Indiana/Indianapolis grows is because it's completely surrounded by exodus's from huge metro's of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland. The place has no transit, no appeal, it has to be the exodus.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

^Marion County/Indy drew more from Cook County/Chicago than any county outside Indiana 2015-2019...
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:42 pm I'm convinced most of the reason Indiana/Indianapolis grows is because it's completely surrounded by exodus's from huge metro's of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland. The place has no transit, no appeal, it has to be the exodus.
Indy and Columbus are the 'New Economy' cities among the Rust Belt and of course being so close to a major population base is likely why they'll continue to draw better than KC will be able to. Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham are maybe sort of the 'New Economy' cities of the E Coast. Feels that way to me anyway. The established E Coast cities are in better situation than Rust Belt cities but it still seems NC has a similar draw in the way that Indy/Columbus do, sort of.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by AlkaliAxel »

earthling wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 12:00 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:42 pm I'm convinced most of the reason Indiana/Indianapolis grows is because it's completely surrounded by exodus's from huge metro's of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland. The place has no transit, no appeal, it has to be the exodus.
Indy and Columbus are the 'New Economy' cities among the Rust Belt and of course being so close to a major population base is likely why they'll continue to draw better than KC will be able to. Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham are maybe sort of the 'New Economy' cities of the E Coast. Feels that way to me anyway. The established E Coast cities are in better situation than Rust Belt cities but it still seems NC has a similar draw in the way that Indy/Columbus do, sort of.
Looking at the trends, I think we can & should pass Indy. They’re barely ahead and suburbs can only take you so far, as we’re seeing JoCo slow down a bit now too. You have to have strong urban core to keep going (like KC has invested in). I’m not sure about passing Columbus, they’re a decent bit ahead in growth. Although, they’re ahead of alot of cities, not just KC.
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Re: KC metro growth and migration stats

Post by earthling »

^KC metro is still larger than Indy metro but Indy city (860K) will probably maintain its lead over KCMO city proper (500K+) for quite a while. Indy metro may overtake KC metro at some point. May take over a decade and not suggesting it will happen, but good chance given the abundance of rust belt population shift, which is really a jobs shift and Indy and Columbus metros are gaining more than their share of Rust Belt region jobs.
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