KCRag Forum

Critical_Mass wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:33 am

mykn wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:22 am Welp, I guess we’re getting another 4 years of trump.

No, Sanders isn't going to get the Dem nomination

Never said Bernie would beat Trump either

If anything DEMs are now highly coordinated early on, they often look like herding cats. Warren's somber attitude indicates she may pull out soon but might be too late for Sanders. Michigan is now showing shifting support from Bernie a week+ ago to Biden today. Of course anything could happen.

Warren apparently dropping out today. Could help Bernie but may not be enough. Young voters need to show up in primaries for Bernie to win.

Bernie is moving Monday KC visit to STL. I suspect because a MO poll just came out showing support for Biden and maybe most of it is in STL - or closer call. Biden will be at WWI Memorial today.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Is surprising that Biden may have flip flopped support in Washington state, it was strong Bernie before Super Tuesday (further down the list).

edit: Another MO poll showed up in list after I posted. Very strong Biden.

"Sleepy Joe Biden is campaigning in KC today, but Crazy Bernie canceled his KC visit and is instead doing it in St. Louis! SAD! Can't support Bernie now. He snubbed us folks!"

While aimlessly wondering downtown, I stumbled into the last 10 minutes of the Biden rally at Liberty Memorial. A few takeaways;

- Biden seemed to be speaking well, but I only saw the very end.

-There was a group chanting what I think was "Trump", and the rest of the crowd drowned them out by chanting "Joe! Joe! Joe!", and Biden shouted "HEY LISTEN HERE" to both of them.

-Emanuel Cleaver finished speaking right as I showed up, and I overheard a girl say "Obama was speaking!" to her friend who was arriving.

-Seemed like a small crowd. Only filled up little over half of Liberty Memorial's deck.

-They had some flags out and they looked very nice on Liberty Memorial.

Bernie going to St Louis makes a little more sense because u can get people from Illinois to come to his rally which has a primary a week later. Kansas doesn't have primary for a couple more months

brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:48 am Bernie going to St Louis makes a little more sense because u can get people from Illinois to come to his rally which has a primary a week later. Kansas doesn't have primary for a couple more months

He had them both on the schedule. It's not like he needed to choose between the two. Unless Bernie thinks MO is a bit of a lost cause. Which I think it is.

A bunch of polls just came out for upcoming primaries and Biden is strong across the board. Bernie could lose closer states too given his base (young/Latino) have been lower turnout in primaries. Then again, maybe his base will show up next round.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

By no means do I want a bunch of deaths, but big events have political impacts.
Paraphrasing, if we do too much people will question if the efforts were worth it. If we do too little people won't have any question.

Imagine the worst case happens and there's a lot of Moderate and Republican bad blood because people did die. It doesn't take there being many stories of people losing a parent or grandparent to change minds about a politician.

In total, of the 35 US Senate seats up this year, 19 of them the state legislature is Republican. 14 of them the governor is Republican too. Every state south of the Mason-Dixon line except Florida has a senator up for election

Georgia has both Senate seats up.
Someone pointed out recently that enough black voters didn't go to the polls in 2016 in Atlanta that the state could have gone to Clinton if they had. Expect Georgia to be a major advertising point this fall.


And even if many US senate seats aren't flipped a local legislature seat flipping will have a big impact.
2021 is a redistricting year so the local legislature will be determining the makeup of the 2022 midterm elections

The Dow was down 2,700 points after President Donald Trump said American life might not return to normal until August. It had fallen as many as 2,800 points Monday.

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/ ... index.html

If this lasts until August I would not be surprised to see a blowout election in November.

Maybe this is his way of saying he doesn't want to be president anymore. He is really only good at his Rally's where he can talk like a teenager.
When he is serious he almost seems uncomfortable

brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:20 pm Maybe this is his way of saying he doesn't want to be president anymore. He is really only good at his Rally's where he can talk like a teenager.
When he is serious he almost seems uncomfortable

I can see that. He loved to bask in the republican praise for the economy but he's definitely not a leader in a crisis and doesn't appear to want to be. One of his biggest political errors was to fire the pandemic response team. The democrats will make that a huge issue in the election.

I think Fox news could also lose total credibility even among their most faithful for their early coverage of the virus.

I suspect Trump has lost credibility with the Senate as well at this point, telling him to STFU and let the experts talk on his behalf.

Will be interesting to follow polls of purple states on Trump vs (seemingly likely) Biden between now and Nov. And if Sanders drops out after Tuesday, which he might if a blowout, Biden will get to plan early and get the early public mindset on Trump vs. Biden.

It's the purple states that matter of course (ignore National polls) and looking at current purple state polls it's pretty close vs Biden. And in red states like Iowa and Kansas, Trump is showing 10 point leads, which could shrink over next few months especially as people are impacted by virus, job losses, 401Ks still down, etc. Not out of the question he loses those states too depending on how he handles the crisis. That is, how his less fanatic base views how he is handling the crisis.

Would expect Trump to make a lot of completely unrealistic promises his base wants to hear. Biden campaign needs to convince weaker Trump supporters not to show up to vote.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... _election/

Apparently Mitch McConnell is asking veteran judges appointed by Republicans to retire so they can be replaced before next cycle. I'd say they are expecting to lose.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/p ... icans.html

Bernie is out.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN21Q2AM

Would imagine Biden VP candidates will be next hot topic.

Biden showing significant leads in AZ, CT, VA...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I don't think Trump won CT or VA

Yeah, you're right.

Arizona would be a big blue pickup & could be helped by the Senate race with Mark Kelly (Gabbie Giffords husband) running in that race. Running against a female that was nominated for the seat when McCain died.

Biden showing fairly decent leads in swing/purple states Michigan, Florida and Penn with rightie pollsters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/