Politics

[beautyfromashes]

Julian Assange implying that DNC staffer Seth Rich was the informant leaking recent improprieties at DNC and was murdered for it.

[grovester]

I'd think if he had evidence of that he would have released it already. I'm gonna file this under "Vince Foster".

[earthling]

DC police saying likely attempted robbery. The victim's family says stop politicizing it...
http://www.businessinsider.com/dnc-seth ... ize-2016-8

[beautyfromashes]

Who's politicizing it? Wikileaks seem to say that he was a source. Offering $20000 towards information about his murder. Why would they care otherwise?

[bobbyhawks]

It is also possible that Assange realizes he can make Clinton look dirty just by offering such a reward. If he was the leak and is now deceased, they have no reason to hide his identity. The FBI could immediately figure things out. Or, it is possible Assange doesn't even know who the leak was and is playing games.. He is pretty much on the record as having an axe to grind with the Clintons. If they did communicate and there was more discussed than just the emails, then there is zero reason why Assange would be holding it back other than to time the political impact to his best interests. There should be no vetting in this situation if he is indeed sitting on damning information related to corruption and murder involving perhaps the first female president of the USA.

[aknowledgeableperson]

"who stays home will determine way more than just the president."

I am on a local Facebook page that has a few Constitutional Conservatives, who also happen to be very religious, and their candidates for various offices lost. To vote for others, even members of the GOP, they will have to eat a lot of crow since they say they would only vote for Constitutional Conservatives.

[earthling]

The 'religious Constitution conservatives' are just as hypocritical as those they point fingers not following Constitution. Many of those are for Ted Cruz who is a) not born in America (or a territory) attempting to run for Pres and b) promotes theocracy - both against the Constitution. Ideology types attempt to interpret such things as dogma literally. The Constitution at best provides guidelines because it's not possible to take the entire thing literally, the best we can do is have judges who do the interpretation and not every person will agree with another's interpretation. Such ideology types think in terms of absolutes and disagree with even that. Constitution purism is pointless to pursue and adapting the spirit of its intent into the current times is inevitable, by judges, via unavoidable interpretation.

[beautyfromashes]

^ We really have moved past most forms of interpretation. We're so far from the time of the Constitution that, beyond basic rights issues, it is such a huge jump. The best we can do is for our representatives to actually pass laws instead of leaving the decision up to the courts.

[earthling]

Yeah that's a separate curious topic - whether judges are making laws or knocking down laws passed via Constitutional interpretation. If they knock down a passed law that is deemed unconstitutional, does it really become a new law itself? That can be easily interpreted as a law created by judges - would like to hear the kcrag lawyers chime in as it doesn't appear to me as judges 'creating' laws.

But on this topic, 'religious Constitution conservatives' think it can be executed literally and their own interpretations (which they think is absolute, not interpretations) can be directly against the Constitution (like promoting a theocracy).

[earthling]

Wisconsin and Michigan go from tossup to leaning Clinton. Trump losing some momentum in Kansas, from 'safely' Trump to 'likely'.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Seems it should be fairly easy for Clinton to win this unless... some deathtrap info towards Clinton comes out before election that tossup states buy into or if more reluctant Trump leaning supporters show up to vote than reluctant Clinton leaning supporters - and they both may have more reluctant supporters than hard core supporters. Last year Establishment GOP didn't think Trump supporters would actually show up in primaries and he ended up winning. Many Bernie supporters might end up being OK with Clinton but may not be motivated enough to show up.

[flyingember]

538 has had both states for Clinton for weeks now.
So the consensus is spreading.

I'm not giving either candidate a solid win/lose at this point. Polls are just polls. Too many people decide only when they get to the ballot box and need to put pen to paper.

As you say, it's the turnout that matters.

[aknowledgeableperson]

Many of reported that Trump's disadvantage now is early voting. With him down in the polls guess they are coming to the conclusion that people may vote for Clinton before they change their minds.

[mean]

With a candidate as unprecedentedly toxic and bellicose and routinely offensive as Trump, I wouldn't put much stock in polls. Even if I was planning to vote for the guy, I wouldn't admit it.

[earthling]

Poll: Trump, Clinton knotted in Missouri

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/p ... uri-227313

While 44 percent said they will vote for Trump, 43 percent indicated a preference for Clinton, with 8 percent choosing Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. Another 1 percent said they would vote for another candidate, while 5 percent said they are currently undecided.

Independents slightly favor Trump over Clinton, 40 percent to 35 percent, while 14 percent said they would vote for Johnson.

Among black, Hispanic and Asian voters in Missouri, Clinton holds a 65-point lead (78 percent to 13 percent). Trump has a 13-point advantage with white voters (50 percent to 37 percent).

Clinton is performing slightly higher among non-white voters than President Barack Obama did against Mitt Romney in 2012, when Obama won by 73 points among non-whites and Romney had a 33-point advantage among white voters.

Trump leads with both white men and women, although he is doing 10 points better with white women (54 percent to 36 percent) than he is among men (45 percent to 37 percent). Generally, the gender gap has been in the opposite direction, with white men preferring Trump to a greater degree than white women.

Curious that more MO white women for Trump than men. Though it's just one poll.

Here is average of several polls for MO..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -6077.html

[aknowledgeableperson]

With everything going on with the election this topic sure has been quiet for some time.
Trump is really making an ass of himself, along with Dr. Oz. Of course Clinton isn't helping her cause all that much. Of course the two independent candidates aren't helping themselves too much either.
Given Trump as the GOP candidate the Dems should be running away with the election.
Given Clinton as the Dem candidate the GOP should be running away with the election.
Come election night it might be a very interesting evening.

[flyingember]

I'm still convinced 538 is the closest to the truth on the election right now. The changes they show make sense with what's actually been happening.

[earthling]

It all depends on who is motivated to show up to vote in the close states.

It will be interesting to see major 'damaging leaks' that are supposedly being held for the week before election as that may influence some votes (or who shows up to vote or not). Trump/Clinton should try to find out what damaging info will be exposed and address it publicly now or at least be prepared to respond.

Is an unusual battle of who awfully sucks less and can best squirm their way out of it.

[earthling]

Early voting starting to come in. North Carolina shows more DEM than REP early voting so far. In 2012, there were more REP than DEM early returns in same period and Romney won NC then. Iowa showing more REP early voting, opposite situation as NC. Is tiny data but more real than polls.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-el ... na-n645701

[FangKC]

There may be a lot more early voting this year in many places simply because people want to avoid long lines at polls, or polling place electronic failures.

[earthling]

Will be interesting to watch the party affiliation of early voting compared to 2012, and which states swap from 2012, especially the larger swing states. I'll be early voting for first time since I'll be gone through rest of year.