KCRag Forum

This explains in the simplest way why population density levels city-wide have dropped so much per household. It illustrates how single family home dominance in zoning is unsustainable.

Kansas City's climb back to its' highest population ever in its' history was made even more difficult by these trends.

Women in the U.S. are having fewer babies. What’s driving this trend?

The United Sates has seen a 50% decline in birth rates between 1950 and 2021, from 25 births per 1,000 people to 12.
...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/ ... 2021+22:00

beautyfromashes wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:46 pm

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:55 pm Platte County vote
2012- R+14
2016- R+11
2020- R+3

Clay County vote
2012- R+9
2016-R+11
2020- R+4

I don’t see how you call this “trending left”. You have Republican plus or minus a few points and then Trump. You have one anomaly year. I’m sure the years before 2012 are in a similar range. You’re taking an outlier and extrapolating a falsehood. Republicans do the same thing with urban districts when a Republican wins a higher % than the last election. “Urban areas are turning Republican!!!” It’s just not happening.

This is not a falsehood. Most every suburb in the country is trending blue. Platte County is a direct line towards Dems. Clay is more mixed still had a hard shift. And again, you don’t judge off down ballot races you use Presidential cycles to examine trends.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:56 pm And again, you don’t judge off down ballot races you use Presidential cycles to examine trends.

But, one President? That’s not a trend. Anyway...

FangKC wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:39 pm Phoenix is the fastest growing city in the USA passing Philadelphia to become the nation's fifth largest city. When I lived in Phoenix, it was the nation's ninth largest city.

New York City added 629,000 people during the past decade -- defying expectations.

Boston grew 9.3 percent between the 2010 and 2020 counts.

The City of St. Louis lost an addition 5.5 percent of population over the past decade--with a loss of almost 18,000 people. It's population stayed above 300,000 though.

Missouri grew only slightly at 2.8% over the past decade -- enough to not lose a congressional seat.

Most Missouri counties saw declines, with 78 of the state's 114 counties — not including St. Louis city — reporting fewer people.

Keep in mind the Census data was taken throughout 2020 with many if not most returned by summer. Will be interesting to see which cities impacted most by pandemic, of which shuffling didn't start to occur until around end of 2020 into early 2021. NYC and San Fran may be among hardest hit, partly from work from anywhere trend as well. We won't know until annual estimates next April.

And Feds need to work on annual estimate methods as they've been showing lower gains or higher losses relative to Census apparently with many cities. Given annual methods rely on surveys and/or W2, tax returns, postal changes, etc, those methods may be struggling to track those under the radar compared to Census method.

This is shocking.

...
Nationwide, 86 percent of Americans lived in metropolitan areas in 2020, and 8 percent lived in what census officials call “micropolitan” areas — cities or other population centers with fewer than 50,000 but more than 10,000 people. That leaves only 6 percent of Americans living in the rural parts of the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/1 ... epopulated

FangKC wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:37 am This is shocking.

...
Nationwide, 86 percent of Americans lived in metropolitan areas in 2020, and 8 percent lived in what census officials call “micropolitan” areas — cities or other population centers with fewer than 50,000 but more than 10,000 people. That leaves only 6 percent of Americans living in the rural parts of the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/1 ... epopulated

yeah, but a very large portion of those people living in rural areas even though, their county is part of a metro or micropolitan area. There is nothing urban about the majority of the counties in the KC MSA, let alone the Micropolitan areas that surround it. And even if you do live in an "urban" part of a small metro (like Joplin), you will very likely be culturally conservative and line up with the rural areas politically.

FangKC wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:37 am This is shocking.

...
Nationwide, 86 percent of Americans lived in metropolitan areas in 2020, and 8 percent lived in what census officials call “micropolitan” areas — cities or other population centers with fewer than 50,000 but more than 10,000 people. That leaves only 6 percent of Americans living in the rural parts of the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/1 ... epopulated

Keep in mind they consider places like Manhattan, KS an urban area. If we’re talking about only the top 35 metros in the USA, it’s about 50% of people live in one of the top 35.

Will the point on the map that is the population center of the USA shift with this census? More towards Springfield?

Downtown at about 28,000 and CBD at about 10,000 https://cityscenekc.com/greater-downtow ... s-results/

Riverite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 8:48 am Downtown at about 28,000 and CBD at about 10,000 https://cityscenekc.com/greater-downtow ... s-results/

The downtown council projection for 2020 was 31420

https://dashboards.mysidewalk.com/state ... mographics

So the census definitely isn't 50% too low for downtown. While there is a case it didn't record everyone it's more like 10% is missing.

.....

normalthings wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:39 pm Downtown count probably ~50% higher than reported. Less a than 2,000 in Crossroads

True if the populations are even 10% of it could be that other neighborhoods in the urban core are similar meaning the pop could be more like 525

Riverite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 9:21 am True if the populations are even 10% of it could be that other neighborhoods in the urban core are similar meaning the pop could be more like 525

It probably varies by neighborhood. I bet downtown has the worst estimates and the population really is somewhere between 508k and 525k but the whole city wasn't 10% off. There was news of apartment buildings not letting census staff into buildings, something that's not a problem with single family homes

https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/le ... rban-areas

Kansas legislature

The numbers showed that 22 of 40 Senate districts and 78 of 125 House districts have too little population after the past 10 years. Current boundaries were drawn in 2012, and the Republican-controlled Legislature must redraw them next year to make sure that districts are as equal in population as possible. New lines will be based on the 2020 federal census.

Legislative researchers' figures show that four Senate districts exceed the ideal population of 73,447 residents by more than 10%. Two are in Johnson County in the Kansas City area, one is in Lawrence, and the other is in Manhattan.

Senate President Ty Masterson's district in east Wichita and Butler County has 9.5% too many residents.

Sixteen House districts had at least 10% more residents than the ideal population of 23,503.

Seven districts are in Johnson County, two are in Kansas City Kansas, and one is split between Johnson and Leavenworth counties. Two more of the districts each are in Lawrence, Manhattan, and the Wichita area.

Just read that the population within the downtown loop grew 87% in the last decade.

You’d think developers would be jumping to get in on the loop growth!

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Mon Aug 30, 2021 6:42 pm Just read that the population within the downtown loop grew 87% in the last decade.

You’d think developers would be jumping to get in on the loop growth!

What? Office Job growth in loop has to be stagnant or I feel well below what it used to be. Just because a bunch of people moved somewhere doesnt mean there is demand for a bunch more. Developers base their projects off of current demand, rents, construction costs, job growth, and many other factors.

Oh gee I’m sorry for assuming 87% population increase meant there was demand

In regards to 2030 census, Census Tract 157.02 (Main to Grand in the CBD) could match or exceed South Plaza in density. WB-RM-RF Census tract is liable to be split up. I can see RF and RM as their own tracts in the future.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:23 pm Oh gee I’m sorry for assuming 87% population increase meant there was demand

You can't assume.

How many units are occupied by working age adults? You need to take out from the increase retirees and children.

It's also not unreasonable to assume some high amount was people moving closer to work, not people moving downtown and looking for a new job. I know a lot of people who got the job in JoCo before they moved there. It was easier to find an apartment than a job.

AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:23 pm Oh gee I’m sorry for assuming 87% population increase meant there was demand

You need to look forward and not backwards. If there was an 87% population growth in the past, that does not automatically mean it will continue. Have to evaluate the market today and where you think it will go in the future. That is more nuanced and involves interest rates, job growth, current comparable rents/occupancy, etc.

Job growth, high paying especially, is not there in downtown KC like it is in others. Construction vs rent or sales prices is troubling some developers that I work with. Interests rates are on our side right now and the reason why we are seeing this many projects be considered. Once rates move back up to pre-covid levels, we will see a drop off in construction until jobs/incentives/rents/demand increases.

I will say this: Cordish has not had problems filling their towers with minimal concessions. However, they benefit from having big incentives deal. I don't think the numbers are there yet to do towers with minimal or no incentives. Maybe around $3-3.50 it will become feasible.

Not getting the high-paying jobs from Waddell Reed downtown was a set-back. Sure, a majority of them wouldn't have lived downtown, but some might have. More importantly, it would have been good to have financial jobs coming back downtown instead of leaving.