Rankings, lists, and such

KC topics that don't fit anywhere else.
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GRID
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by GRID »

Good news that KC is clearly over 500k now. That just sounds better than 490 something.

I'm a nerd, so I have a spreadsheet. I plugged in the new numbers for KC.

KC MSA: 2,192,035
KC MSA MO Side urban: 1,185,081
KC MSA KS Side urban: 860,989
KC MSA MO Side rural: 102,183
KC MSA KS Side rural: 43,782

KC CSA: 2,525,644
MO side CSA Total: 1,455,234
KS side CSA Total: 1,073,410
MO side CSA outside MSA: 167,970
KS side CSA outside MSA: 168,639
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by flyingember »

beautyfromashes wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:47 pm I guess the thought was that, right now, we have more suburban residents than urban. That will continue to be the case in larger regard with the Northland and southern suburbs growing. How will this affect urban districts when there are more suburban councilpeople?
There’s hasn’t been an only urban district in the city in decades

The suburbs start at about 47th on the south and about Troost on the east. They’re called Streetcar Suburbs for a reason.

A better difference would be to look at voting patterns as the comparison point. The different suburbs all vote very differently, the northland suburbs in the 4th are more more Democrat voting than further NE and NW
Last edited by flyingember on Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by flyingember »

FangKC wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:04 pm
beautyfromashes wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:47 pm I guess the thought was that, right now, we have more suburban residents than urban. That will continue to be the case in larger regard with the Northland and southern suburbs growing. How will this affect urban districts when there are more suburban councilpeople?
If the central city neighborhoods want to retain some power on the Council, then there needs to be a lot more -- and better -- infill development. That means not filling vacant lots with a single-family home again, but a duplexes, triplexes, or SFH with accessory dwellings. It means replacing several adjacent vacant lots with apartments and townhouses instead of single houses.

The primary reason is because we don't have as many people living in each domicile as we did 50 years ago.

We cannot continue to redevelop the east side like most of Beacon Hill has been. That was such a lost opportunity to add real density near large employers.
As of the 2019 estimates there was zero net growth on the east side. I want more specific data to look at because it’s not unlikely Eric Bunch lives in the 5th or 6th district in 2023.

Downtown is 1/3 of a district
If the northland is 2.5 to 2.6 districts the 4th is 0.5-0.6 north and 0.3 downtown. That leaves only 0.1-0.2 districts for all the rest of today’s 4th south of the river.

The 3rd will grow dramatically in size. The 6th takes Westport and midtown and moves more west. The 5th takes part of the 6th and shifts south. The 3rd takes from two districts on both ends.

There’s ways this skews more, in recent years growth districts were ~95% the even size, shrinking districts ~105%. So the east side will have more people than a northland district. This makes it grow in size even more than it should
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by beautyfromashes »

flyingember wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:08 pm As of the 2019 estimates there was zero net growth on the east side. I want more specific data to look at because it’s not unlikely Eric Bunch lives in the 5th or 6th district in 2023.

Downtown is 1/3 of a district
If the northland is 2.5 to 2.6 districts the 4th is 0.5-0.6 north and 0.3 downtown. That leaves only 0.1-0.2 districts for all the rest of today’s 4th south of the river.

The 3rd will grow dramatically in size. The 6th takes Westport and midtown and moves more west. The 5th takes part of the 6th and shifts south. The 3rd takes from two districts on both ends.

There’s ways this skews more, in recent years growth districts were ~95% the even size, shrinking districts ~105%. So the east side will have more people than a northland district. This makes it grow in size even more than it should
I’d like to see a combined 5th and 6th suburban district of everything outside the 435 loop south of the river and two ‘urban’ district combining the 4th & 5th north of 47th to the river. 5th and 6th pieces inside the 435 loop south of 47th? combine. Northeast joins Northland first ring suburbs for 3rd North district.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by AlkaliAxel »

beautyfromashes wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:52 pm
flyingember wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:19 pm The northland will be the majority of the city is 2030 if the rate continues.
Will Kansas City be a Republican city then? What's the largest conservative-run city in the United States?
LOL.This isn't even close to being true.

2020 Election Results in KCMO
Biden-78.50%
Trump- 19.24%

The Northland isn't even conservative. Platte & Clay County just *barely* voted GOP in 2020 and swung massively to the Left. By 2024 and beyond they're going to be Democrat counties. Not to mention the rest of KC is incredibly liberal already to combine with it.

Not only is it not even close to being Republican, KC is probably going to continue to trend further left because it's growing. STL may be the one becomes slightly more conservative because it's not growing at all.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by Riverite »

Looks like our densest census tract is in the plaza with about 20,000 people per sq mile, second in downtown with 17,000. On urbanstl they had this map that showed the population change in census tracts from 2010-2020 does anyone know where to find that?
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by Riverite »

Nevermind I found it, looks like east side had spots of small declines, and small gains this decade. https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/metrokansascity/
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by beautyfromashes »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 am Platte & Clay County just *barely* voted GOP in 2020 and swung massively to the Left. By 2024 and beyond they're going to be Democrat counties.
You’re a crazy optimist, huh?
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by moderne »

This will give KC the largest population ever. The previous high was slightly less at 507,000 in 1970.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by normalthings »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 am
beautyfromashes wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:52 pm
flyingember wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:19 pm The northland will be the majority of the city is 2030 if the rate continues.
Will Kansas City be a Republican city then? What's the largest conservative-run city in the United States?
LOL.This isn't even close to being true.

2020 Election Results in KCMO
Biden-78.50%
Trump- 19.24%

The Northland isn't even conservative. Platte & Clay County just *barely* voted GOP in 2020 and swung massively to the Left. By 2024 and beyond they're going to be Democrat counties. Not to mention the rest of KC is incredibly liberal already to combine with it.

Not only is it not even close to being Republican, KC is probably going to continue to trend further left because it's growing. STL may be the one becomes slightly more conservative because it's not growing at all.
The KCMO Council members against the streetcar are, as far as I know, "democrats." Just because they vote blue for president doesn't mean they support treansit, development, etc
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by flyingember »

beautyfromashes wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:11 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 am Platte & Clay County just *barely* voted GOP in 2020 and swung massively to the Left. By 2024 and beyond they're going to be Democrat counties.
You’re a crazy optimist, huh?
clay voted ~57% for Republicans in countywide positions

It shows someone hasn't ever looked at https://www.claycoelections.com/results if they call it a Democratic county

That's a wider margin than the presidential vote, sure, but it shows that the candidate mattered more than the party in that one.
If anything, it shows Republican Clay County is more moderate than conservative if ~10% don't vote straight party
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by AlkaliAxel »

flyingember wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:50 pm
beautyfromashes wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:11 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 am Platte & Clay County just *barely* voted GOP in 2020 and swung massively to the Left. By 2024 and beyond they're going to be Democrat counties.
You’re a crazy optimist, huh?
clay voted ~57% for Republicans in countywide positions

It shows someone hasn't ever looked at https://www.claycoelections.com/results if they call it a Democratic county

That's a wider margin than the presidential vote, sure, but it shows that the candidate mattered more than the party in that one.
If anything, it shows Republican Clay County is more moderate than conservative if ~10% don't vote straight party
He said Northland was Republican. I said it *barely* is voting GOP anymore as of 2020 and is trending to the left rapidly. By 2024 and beyond with those trends it will be a Democrat county. I've been studying political trends for my job for years.

Discern between incumbent Republicans who will run ahead of the national ticket. The metric that is used to for measuring PVI (partisan voting of an area) is by Presidential voting. You don't use downballot votes like county seats voting to judge an area. Otherwise you could say Kentucky and Louisiana are still "Democrat states" by that metric. The PVI's of Northland are going to be Democrat very soon because of the growth.

How the elected officials vote while in office I have no idea, but it has nothing to do with the partisanship of the county.
Last edited by AlkaliAxel on Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by TheSmokinPun »

Northland, from my experiences over the past decade til the end of 2020 have always been it's just like the rest of the suburbs in the US for the most part. Socially progressive but good lord, don't ever tax me for a single thing ever.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by AlkaliAxel »

beautyfromashes wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:11 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 am Platte & Clay County just *barely* voted GOP in 2020 and swung massively to the Left. By 2024 and beyond they're going to be Democrat counties.
You’re a crazy optimist, huh?
I just go off data. Do you need to see the numbers?

Platte County vote
2012- R+14
2016- R+11
2020- R+3

Clay County vote
2012- R+9
2016-R+11
2020- R+4

It's not optimistic to say Platte's going to be Dem by 2024 and Clay will be even while continuing to slide Dem. This all caused by growth. Area's that are growing trend Dem. Area's that aren't trend GOP.

Yes there may be some downballot Republicans that got higher vote than Trump because they are incumbents. That is what incumbents usually do.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by flyingember »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:46 pm
He said Northland was Republican. I said it *barely* is voting GOP anymore as of 2020 and is trending to the left rapidly. By 2024 and beyond with those trends it will be a Democrat county. I've been studying political trends for my job for years.

The metric that is used to for measuring PVI (partisan voting of an area) is by Presidential voting. You don't use downballot votes like county seats voting to judge an area. Otherwise you could say Kentucky and Louisiana are still "Democrat states" by that metric. The PVI's of Northland are going to be Democrat very soon because of the growth.

How the elected officials vote while in office I have no idea, but it has nothing to do with the partisanship of the county.
The problem with your logic is people don't vote consistently
2024 is awfully fast to assume the county flips majority parties especialy

Local: Rs are at 56-57%
State and national Rs are at 53-54%

On the average the county gained thousands and the politics barely budged since 2016. Need more than two elections to set a trend line but in the past 5 years there isn't one.
So to think somehow there's going to be huge influxes of people in the next three years to flip votes is highly unlikely.

That in 2040 that the county could be all Democrat for county seats, that I would believe.
TheSmokinPun wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:51 pm Northland, from my experiences over the past decade til the end of 2020 have always been it's just like the rest of the suburbs in the US for the most part. Socially progressive but good lord, don't ever tax me for a single thing ever.
That's not wrong. Someone was arguing against subsidized internet on a site (anti-tax argument) and I countered with the cost of their road to show how they're being subsidized in huge ways and to cut taxes they need to pay directly for their street. The same site I pointed out that replacing the majority of county roads with gravel would be smarter to keep taxes down and if they wanted better roads they need to pay dramatically more property taxes. The county just doesn't want to pay for things.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by AlkaliAxel »

flyingember wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:03 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:46 pm
He said Northland was Republican. I said it *barely* is voting GOP anymore as of 2020 and is trending to the left rapidly. By 2024 and beyond with those trends it will be a Democrat county. I've been studying political trends for my job for years.

The metric that is used to for measuring PVI (partisan voting of an area) is by Presidential voting. You don't use downballot votes like county seats voting to judge an area. Otherwise you could say Kentucky and Louisiana are still "Democrat states" by that metric. The PVI's of Northland are going to be Democrat very soon because of the growth.

How the elected officials vote while in office I have no idea, but it has nothing to do with the partisanship of the county.
The problem with your logic is people don't vote consistently
2024 is awfully fast to assume the county flips majority parties especialy

Local: Rs are at 56-57%
State and national Rs are at 53-54%

On the average the county gained thousands and the politics barely budged since 2016. Need more than two elections to set a trend line but in the past 5 years there isn't one.
So to think somehow there's going to be huge influxes of people in the next three years to flip votes is highly unlikely.

That in 2040 that the county could be all Democrat for county seats, that I would believe.
TheSmokinPun wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:51 pm Northland, from my experiences over the past decade til the end of 2020 have always been it's just like the rest of the suburbs in the US for the most part. Socially progressive but good lord, don't ever tax me for a single thing ever.
That's not wrong. Someone was arguing against subsidized internet on a site (anti-tax argument) and I countered with the cost of their road to show how they're being subsidized in huge ways and to cut taxes they need to pay directly for their street. The same site I pointed out that replacing the majority of county roads with gravel would be smarter to keep taxes down and if they wanted better roads they need to pay dramatically more property taxes. The county just doesn't want to pay for things.
Look at the data I wrote out for the other guy. It's trending left, and the reason we know that trend will hold is because of the massive population growth. Platte is almost certainly going to be Dem voting for POTUS by 2024, and 50/50 Clay will be too.

But the bottom line is when he referred to "is Kansas City going to be Repulican" because northland is growing is just absurd. Even the northland counties are marginally GOP and combined with the rest of the city they don't move the needle.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by beautyfromashes »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:55 pm Platte County vote
2012- R+14
2016- R+11
2020- R+3

Clay County vote
2012- R+9
2016-R+11
2020- R+4
I don’t see how you call this “trending left”. You have Republican plus or minus a few points and then Trump. You have one anomaly year. I’m sure the years before 2012 are in a similar range. You’re taking an outlier and extrapolating a falsehood. Republicans do the same thing with urban districts when a Republican wins a higher % than the last election. “Urban areas are turning Republican!!!” It’s just not happening.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by FangKC »

Census data shows fastest growth in Platte, Clay counties
...
"The Northland has been shortchanged by City Hall for decades. Hopefully, with the new population growth, the new census numbers, that will change," Ford said.

This kind of growth can change the politics of Kansas City. The numbers are in the Northland.
https://www.kmbc.com/article/census-dat ... s/37305640
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by earthling »

The wiki page has been updated for largest metros...

MSA from 2020 Census...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... ical_areas

CSA not updated from Census yet but imagine any day now...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area


Separately, can anyone find population and change of KCMO within Jackson County? I didn't look hard.
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Re: Rankings, lists, and such

Post by FangKC »

Phoenix is the fastest growing city in the USA passing Philadelphia to become the nation's fifth largest city. When I lived in Phoenix, it was the nation's ninth largest city.

New York City added 629,000 people during the past decade -- defying expectations.

Boston grew 9.3 percent between the 2010 and 2020 counts.

The City of St. Louis lost an addition 5.5 percent of population over the past decade--with a loss of almost 18,000 people. It's population stayed above 300,000 though.

Missouri grew only slightly at 2.8% over the past decade -- enough to not lose a congressional seat.

Most Missouri counties saw declines, with 78 of the state's 114 counties — not including St. Louis city — reporting fewer people.
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