KCRag Forum

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:19 pm And will NCAA tournament go on? They might run the games with no fans.

I don't think its that serious

I don't either but that's been the discussion within NCAA. So far they plan to move forward but they said could change within a week.

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:51 pm I don't either but that's been the discussion within NCAA. So far they plan to move forward but they said could change within a week.

It's mainly a discussion from the players association. Of course the NCAA has to play nice in these soft times.

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:19 pm The 4Light hotel element could be entirely killed if COVID19 harms downtown hotel occupancy even further given how many rooms coming online. ...downtown hotels being potentially overbuilt...

How many times do we have to have a study posted on here showing that we are clearly still lacking hotel rooms downtown before those of you in this ridiculous train of thought start listening to reality? We need yet more hotel rooms!

^Have mentioned I've been invested in a Marriott independent operator (not in KC) a few years as a private equity investor and have been following KC stats for many years. Have mentioned in other threads that downtown (before COVID) could likely handle more long term but many coming online at once could be a challenge when occupancy numbers are already not particularly great, they're likely just borderline profitable. Take a look at how many are coming online at once below along with avg occupancy - and IIRC there's more coming than shown. That could drop avg vacancy below 60% for a while until convention/event scheduling catches up - and nearly every city is now a convention city so plenty of competition. Office HQ/regional activity downtown also needs to pick up, which helps fill rooms. Hotels tend to not profit below 60%-65% occupancy depending on profit of services to outsiders (such as hotel/residential combos, which can potentially profit below 60%). If COVID impact hits over summer, not helping.

The sweet spot is probably 7K-8K rooms for downtown long term but so many are coming online at once investors may want to see occupancy numbers at a healthier level before moving forward with more projects. And hence Cordish might kill the hotel element of 4Light if avg occupancy levels show around 65% or less over next year or so. But in 2+ years, it very well could be in good shape and they could go for it depending on when they make the call.

And I shouldn't have said overbuilt but rather too many coming online at once for now. Midtown could probably handle some more economy hotels over time too, though AirBNB is a factor.

Any hints coming from Cordish insiders if 4L still on drawing board with COVID likely to linger for a while?

earthling wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:29 am Any hints coming from Cordish insiders if 4L still on drawing board with COVID likely to linger for a while?

Definitely still in the plans. At this point, depending on how 3L goes, I’d say ground breaking in 2025 or 2026.

break ground fall 2020, completion fall 2023, take two years to fill. Yeah, sounds about right

From my conversations with them, I feel we will have a 4L and a interstate cap by 2028 and I wouldn't be surprised if the cap gets done before 4L breaks ground.

Neat! Is a hotel still planned?

Exciting few years ahead of us

2022 - Wadell & Reed HQ
2023 - Strata, 3 Light, NFL Draft, New KCI open
2024 - Streetcar Extension construction ends
2025 - Loop Cap Park Opens, Streetcar Extension Opens
2026 - World Cup?

This is great news. It's hard to even comprehend what the area would look like with 3 Light, 4 Light, Waddell and Reed all fronting a new park where a freeway trench once was.

So, in nearly another decade downtown "might" get a significant building like 4 light? But it will likely takes years longer. Look how long it's taking to get 3 light started? This is all great news I suppose, but KC is still a very slow growing and slow changing place unless you compare it to Memphis or Buffalo or something. Just being honest. I would love to see KC change at a little bit faster pace.

GRID wrote: ↑Fri May 01, 2020 3:47 pm So, in nearly another decade downtown "might" get a significant building like 4 light? But it will likely takes years longer. Look how long it's taking to get 3 light started? This is all great news I suppose, but KC is still a very slow growing and slow changing place unless you compare it to Memphis or Buffalo or something. Just being honest. I would love to see KC change at a little bit faster pace.

1. Getting jobs downtown is probably the biggest thing we can do to accelerate growth. Getting WR, Strata, & 13th Wyandotte off the ground in 2020 and 2021 will set us up for strong growth in the next cycle. The streetcar is also going to be critical to attracting jobs and talent.

2. It is my understanding that Cordish is not the only player considering a highrise for KC. Outside developers are getting interested and Copaken is working its way up to a true residential tower.

3.IMHO. Filling in surface lots with mid-rises would change downtown a lot more than a few towers. I think we have made progress on this front and will continue to do so in the future.

Growth in under a decade is like a blink of an eye. These are all good things. I think steady growth is better than booms. Usually booms come with a bust at some time. Plus steady growth allows for gradual cost of living rises etc. I’d love for things to happen faster, and honestly they still could. But to have a growth plan that shows 10yrs of sustained significant projects is a great sign for the future. It’s more likely these get added to in terms of new things rather than scaled back. Let’s take the win and keep pushing for more

I do think if we have a “V” shaped recovery from this and things get back to somewhat normal, combined with 3L leasing up quickly, they won’t hesitate to move up the start date on 4L.

Do they have an idea for mix yet? Still hotel and apartment?

A fairly reliable source told me that 5 light could happen before 4 light because it will have more affordable apartments on a smaller foot print. But the great news is 5 light would replace this nothing retail building at 14th & main. The hotel president will have a worthy neighbor and this intersection could be one of the best in the city.

Rabble wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:01 am A fairly reliable source told me that 5 light could happen before 4 light because it will have more affordable apartments on a smaller foot print. But the great news is 5 light would replace this nothing retail building at 14th & main. The hotel president will have a worthy neighbor and this intersection could be one of the best in the city.

Interesting, would be cool to see. I thought five light was supposed to be on truman for some reason. If it’s got more affordable housing, maybe they could tie it in with four light and build them at the same time.

If the case you'd think the next one built would still be called 4 Light no matter the location.

earthling wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:07 am If the case you'd think the next one built would still be called 4 Light no matter the location.

Agreed