KCRag Forum

The Carpenters PAC has indeed gone negative, leaving Lucas to play the victim.

DaveKCMO wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:51 am The Carpenters PAC has indeed gone negative, leaving Lucas to play the victim.

As he should. Never swing down is the golden rule of politics.

He has counter punched a bit.

I have yet to see any evidence of negative campaigning by the Justus campaign. I have seen whining about negative campaigning from Lucas (4/18 Star Headline - "Lucas claims Justus may be about to launch negative campaign").

But, being "about to" do something - or a union doing something - is NOT the same as Justus going negative, is it?

There were some shots from her website saying Lucas can't be trusted and then reasons why. Pretty pud but could be seen as negative.

It's a campaign and they hold very similar positions, so at some point character was going to become an issue.

Everything has been pretty mild.

KCPowercat wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:38 pm There were some shots from her website saying Lucas can't be trusted and then reasons why. Pretty pud but could be seen as negative.

I stand corrected. Still haven't seen anything in my mailers or broadcast ads, but I suppose that is "going negative" to a certain extent.

I still think they're both good candidates - so pretty happy either way.

I agree on all accounts

WSPanic wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:28 am Oops...
Unfortunately, we are unable to locate the page you requested. Please check the web address you entered and try again.

Funny in context

Today's debate at Union Station: https://www.kcur.org/post/kansas-city-m ... n#stream/0

Also, free bus rides on June 18:

Dave I am getting the feeling that Lucas has an authenticity problem. I am having 2nd thoughts about voting for him.

Oops!

There's a reason no of the raggers won and Justus trails in the polls. You all are out of touch with the issues facing KC.

johnmatrix wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:13 am There's a reason no of the raggers won and Justus is within the margin of error trails in the polls. You all are out of touch with the issues facing KC.

FTFY.

johnmatrix wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:13 am There's a reason no of the raggers won and Justus trails in the polls. You all are out of touch with the issues facing KC.

Someone is out of touch on what the poll actually shows.
To build on Dave, here's the actual numbers.

https://www.kmbc.com/article/race-for-k ... l/27892677

A poll published Saturday by the Missouri Scout newsletter shows Councilman Quinton Lucas leading City Council colleague Jolie Justus 42 percent to 39 percent.

Nineteen percent of the Kansas City voters in the poll say they are undecided.

The poll, conducted by Remington Research, has a 4.6 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.

A 4.6% margin of error on a 3% spread also means the numbers could be completely flipped and be correct. Lucas could be ahead 47-34 or Justus ahead 44-37

Let's run the extreme result and assign the undecideds all to one side.
Justus could win with 63% or Lucas could win with 66%. That's how wide open the election is today.

flyingember wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:35 am

johnmatrix wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:13 am There's a reason no of the raggers won and Justus trails in the polls. You all are out of touch with the issues facing KC.

Someone is out of touch on what the polls actually shows.
To build on Dave, here's the actual numbers.

https://www.kmbc.com/article/race-for-k ... l/27892677

A poll published Saturday by the Missouri Scout newsletter shows Councilman Quinton Lucas leading City Council colleague Jolie Justus 42 percent to 39 percent.

Nineteen percent of the Kansas City voters in the poll say they are undecided.

The poll, conducted by Remington Research, has a 4.6 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.

A 4.6% margin of error on a 3% spread also means the numbers could be completely flipped and be correct. Justus could actually be ahead 42-39.

Sure sweetheart most citizens are thrilled with unaffordable housing.

Funny how this poll was corrupt and wrong just a few weeks ago but now that it shows the race has tightened its credible.

Their margin of uncertainty is worse than three weeks ago meaning this poll has less value. This pollser isn't corrupt, they're incompetent. They're producing results that tell us only that more people have made up their mind but not what it is.

This is May 20

38% – 30%, with 32% of voters in the survey of 610 likely municipal election voters undecided. The survey was conducted May 15-16 and has a 3.7% margin of error.

What we're telling you is the numbers coming out support neither candidate as being ahead while you gloat and say they do.

I would bet mayoral results come down to specific council district turnout.

For example, the 1st has no competitive races so that would keep turnout down.
But the incentive cap ballot item is on the mayoral election and taxes are a hot button item for the suburbs. A lot of people could turn out just for this item that otherwise wouldn't

I don't have the poll, but important to remember that the moe applies to individual percentages and not to the difference between the two.

I think it's fair to say that Lucas has a narrow lead in a race with high uncertainty. It'd be interesting to see the campaigns internals.