KCRag Forum

ShowMeKC wrote: Hmm... It seems you all don't realize that gas prices go up and down, but have gradually raising up for a couple decades now:
~removed~

This years gas will cost more than last years, next years will be more than this years. Ending the war in Iraq might effect it some, but gas prices will inevitably continue to raise.

It is a resource that DOES NOT renew, at least in a reasonable amount of time. As we use more, the price will raise.

Only the ignorant would claim that oil prices will go back down and stay down, and we can continue to drive happily around our suburbs for generations to come.

aknowledgeableperson wrote: In the 70's oil was withheld from the marketplace which then created shortages which then created lines at the gas pumps, rationing, and dry pumps.
Presently we do not have oil being withheld from the marketplace.  Price increases over the past year are due to many factors.  There is much dispute over those factors and how they have affected the pricing but there has been a substantial drop in oil prices for the past month.

My guess is oil prices will be heading to levels below $90 and will be below that level 3 years from now.  There might be an occasional spike due to political reasons but I think that whatever party wins in Nov. steps will be taken to take us away from our dependence of oil for security reasons.

ShowMeKC wrote: Well, one good solution is to start supporting long distance transportation to be done by rail in the USA...

ShowMeKC wrote: That is why I said: "start supporting long distance transportation to be done by rail"

We need to START improving them.

Yes I know we also have to desperately deal with intra-city transportation. But we need to make people's movement towards the city (and to other centers like villages, etc...) more permentant. As people move out, there needs to be some incentive to demolish the suburban housing outside cities.

This would keep people from moving out there, especially the poor families. These poor families could thus be mixed in with the other income levels (though NEVER concentrated).

Highlander wrote: I am not as optimistic as you are.  I don't think we get through a transition to alternative energy without a lot of pain and sacrifice and basically a profound change in the way of life.  That's because nothing out there is anywhere near as energy efficient as gasoline, we will pay a price in our standard of living for a less energy efficient sources of fuel.  Our entire way of life is predicated on cheap and easy energy.   From what I can tell, you accept the fact that oil reserves are in worldwide decline....but I guess we disagree on the scope and magnitude of the problems that will create.

ShowMeKC wrote: ~removed~

Highlander wrote: I think you are a bit off.  First of all, there is no real dispute about why prices are high, there is speculation among the uninformed, but most people in the oil industry, understand that we simply cannot produce enough to keep up with demand over extended periods of time.  It's absolute and soley an issue of supply which is stable and perhaps already beginning wane and demand which continues to grow.  If prices drop to levels below today's level three years from now, I would be astounded.  I do not see any catalyst that would make that happen from an alternative energy point of view, and certainly not from an exploration perspective.  As the US cut production in the early part of 2008 (by 800,000 barrels per day...<5%), worldwide consumption increased by 1.3 million barrels per day.  There is nothing in terms of alternative fuels/vehicles that will destroy demand in that short of time frame.  Electric cars, for all the links you have provided, are still extremely limited in range and capability....the quoted ranges are ideal.  Throw in driving at night and air conditioning, a couple of passengers and expect half that much.  Americans are not going to give up the convenience of a gas powered auto until economic conditions force that upon them and we are not there yet.  Europeans get by at twice the price Americans pay.  

If prices were to drop to lets say 60$ per barrel, that would lead to a shut down of about every major new oil project in the world and force 1980-style layoffs in the energy industry acccompanied by a large drop in supply.  There is a saying in the industry, "60 is the new 20" which basically means the price that oil companies think they can operate while making substantial investments in future production has risen dramatically.  While prices have gone up, project costs and overheads have risen every bit as much.  What cost 40 million dollars a mere 4 years ago costs well over 100 million now.

I am not as optimistic as you are.  I don't think we get through a transition to alternative energy without a lot of pain and sacrifice and basically a profound change in the way of life.  That's because nothing out there is anywhere near as energy efficient as gasoline, we will pay a price in our standard of living for a less energy efficient sources of fuel.  Our entire way of life is predicated on cheap and easy energy.   From what I can tell, you accept the fact that oil reserves are in worldwide decline....but I guess we disagree on the scope and magnitude of the problems that will create.  You have a chance to start the post-oil era out in the right direction, however, in November by voting for light rail.  You are right about one thing, however, whoever we elect is going to have a challenge and I do not see Obama being any better than McCain or Bush for that matter when it comes to energy.      

ShowMeKC wrote: When did we start attributing pictures on this website?

http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/home/disclaimer.tpl wrote: All contents of, and materials located on, this Site, including but not limited to the text, images and other information herein and their arrangement, are protected by copyright, trademark and other proprietary rights of iFAST Financial Pte Ltd ("IFPL"). This means that you shall not without the express written consent of IFPL distribute the text or graphics to others; "mirror" or include this information on your own server or documents; or modify or re-use the text or graphics on this system. IFPL reserves all other rights.

ShowMeKC wrote: When did we start attributing pictures on this website?