langosta wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 5:02 pm
Iberia and ITA are not options.
Why?
And why can't we think outside the box and try a play at Turkish Airlines (the airline with the largest cities destinations in the world)? Find a good match that will be beneficial to both sides instead of trying to play with the big boys and have to pay to play.
KC demand is heavy on London. Followed by AMS, Paris, FRA (I forget the order).
Iberia and ITA are not set up to connect NA to Europe + Beyond in the way that the airlines I listed are. KC O&D is low to those destinations. Low Demand + Fewer Connections + Excessive Travel time. KC would need a bigger incentive for a flight to Madrid then it would to London. IcelandAir works despite low O&D because there is a very strong connection operation, location is "on the way", and the narrow bodies reduce cost/risk.
KC has minimal O&D demand to Istanbul but that flight would serve a few dozen people going on to Asia or Africa. However, that is not enough and would just bleed some of the deep connection traffic an eventualy BA or AF would service.
Per Justin Meyer the top 5 are - London, Paris, Rome, Amsterdam, Dublin
Agree on Iberia/ITA... ITA is in serious financial trouble. Lufthansa just bought a minority stake in them. They have to figure things out before I see them expanding to a city our size anytime soon. Iberia just doesn't have the demand.
Justin has basically said the focus is London/Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin for awhile now.
And why can't we think outside the box and try a play at Turkish Airlines (the airline with the largest cities destinations in the world)? Find a good match that will be beneficial to both sides instead of trying to play with the big boys and have to pay to play.
KC demand is heavy on London. Followed by AMS, Paris, FRA (I forget the order).
Iberia and ITA are not set up to connect NA to Europe + Beyond in the way that the airlines I listed are. KC O&D is low to those destinations. Low Demand + Fewer Connections + Excessive Travel time. KC would need a bigger incentive for a flight to Madrid then it would to London. IcelandAir works despite low O&D because there is a very strong connection operation, location is "on the way", and the narrow bodies reduce cost/risk.
KC has minimal O&D demand to Istanbul but that flight would serve a few dozen people going on to Asia or Africa. However, that is not enough and would just bleed some of the deep connection traffic an eventualy BA or AF would service.
Per Justin Meyer the top 5 are - London, Paris, Rome, Amsterdam, Dublin
Agree on Iberia/ITA... ITA is in serious financial trouble. Lufthansa just bought a minority stake in them. They have to figure things out before I see them expanding to a city our size anytime soon. Iberia just doesn't have the demand.
Justin has basically said the focus is London/Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin for awhile now.
Eyeballing this report, 2019: UK about 100 daily, France 80, Germany 70, Italy 65
ITA would have to back track to hit the 3 big destinations from KC and most of the "other" destinations. Wouldn't be competitive.
langosta wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:21 pm
ITA would have to back track to hit the 3 big destinations from KC and most of the "other" destinations. Wouldn't be competitive.
But, the big three destinations have more numbers because they’re the big three. London a probably the cheapest place to hit the continent with Norse having $300 round trip from NY. So, of course more people are going to go through those places. But, if there was a nonstop to Barcelona, it would jump the big three. A lot of the traffic you listed above would consolidate, especially in the summer.
dev49 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:46 pm
Justin has basically said the focus is London/Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin for awhile now.
Well, Justin can keep wasting money buying drinks for the beauty queens at the bar, but they aren’t interested. He needs to lower his standards.
Argh...... The Airlines and routes that have a chance of penciling are the ones we are pursuing. KCI has been open to various types of airlines (ULCC to Legacy). The routes you proposed have significant hurdle to penciling but standards are "low" in that we are not limiting pursuits to trophy airlines.
London, Paris, and Germany are the biggest because of business and tourism traffic. This is data pulled from KCI to XXX airport bookings not someone self connecting via a LCC in NYC.
langosta wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:36 pm
London, Paris, and Germany are the biggest because of business and tourism traffic. This is data pulled from KCI to XXX airport bookings not someone self connecting via a LCC in NYC.
And you don’t think self connectors would switch to a nonstop if it was available? Why would you not count them?
And, sure, some people HAVE to go on vacation to Frankfurt but many just want to get to Europe and will travel around from there. College students don’t care whether they start in Amsterdam to start their Eurorail pass or Paris or… Barcelona. The flights would automatically migrate to the nonstop, wherever it is.
langosta wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:36 pm
London, Paris, and Germany are the biggest because of business and tourism traffic. This is data pulled from KCI to XXX airport bookings not someone self connecting via a LCC in NYC.
And you don’t think self connectors would switch to a nonstop if it was available? Why would you not count them?
And, sure, some people HAVE to go on vacation to Frankfurt but many just want to get to Europe and will travel around from there. College students don’t care whether they start in Amsterdam to start their Eurorail pass or Paris or… Barcelona. The flights would automatically migrate to the nonstop, wherever it is.
You argument was that MCI-LON numbers are high because Norse flys NYC - LON on the cheap. That is not the case, MCI-LON is counting everyone who book that routing as one trip with a connection(s). This isnt counting self connections, travelers driving to other cities to make the flight, etc.
Business travel is make or break for these kinds of routes, especially off peak season. It is why you see business ticket purchase agreements as a critical piece to other cities bids (see STL).
Having flights from KC to Spain or Italy would be cool but it doesn't reflect how the industry works or where our traffic is to.
langosta wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:58 pm
Having flights from KC to Spain or Italy would be cool but it doesn't reflect how the industry works or where our traffic is to.
But the point is that you’re not even counting “all our traffic”. You’re just counting those who book a direct flight all the way through on a carrier and their affiliates. You can’t determine the success of a nonstop without counting those who fly to another city and switch carriers, or those in Columbia and Springfield who would come here instead of driving to St Louis. And you’re not counting those whose destination is ‘Europe-any city’ as opposed to a specific city. But, I’m going to drop it. It’s pointless to talk and I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the leaders of the airport just can’t deliver. They can’t close the deal.
I'd be curious to know if carriers use a metric to determine how much Europe travel they expect to capture with a direct. Anecdotally, directs from Philadelphia (where I am currently) are often more expensive than a comparable flight from MCI, and more expensive than a direct from EWR or JFK. I am not mega price-sensitive (HUMBLE BRAG) but it can be hard to justify the price difference. I can imagine in Kansas City still choosing to connect stateside before crossing due to more attractive pricing.
As has been noted many times, I assume this is one reason why business travel is make or break for a future European route. Business travelers are more time sensitive and less price sensitive.
The priority is business travelers who will pay upwards of $5-7k for Delta One, British Airways First Class, etc. And these people don't want to connect in a random European city to get to a major business hub like London, etc. If we're ultimately unsuccessful in scoring a major route like Delta to CDG, British Airways to LHR, etc., then I imagine we'll shift focus to getting seasonal leisure route with Icelandair, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Eurowings Discover, etc.
Wanting our only European nonstop to a place like Spain or Italy would be the same thing as starting over at KCI and our very first domestic route is San Diego or Nashville. Sure they are great vacation spots and they can connect you to places and you may do business there but they are not NY, LA, Chicago, DC.
brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 10:48 am
Wanting our only European nonstop to a place like Spain or Italy would be the same thing as starting over at KCI and our very first domestic route is San Diego or Nashville. Sure they are great vacation spots and they can connect you to places and you may do business there but they are not NY, LA, Chicago, DC.
Yes, but if you’ve never had a nonstop to California and see no real chance to get one to LA or NY, you take that San Diego in a heartbeat. And that’s basically what I’m saying. London/Paris/Amsterdam/Germany just isn’t happening. Take the ‘San Diego’.
brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 10:48 am
Wanting our only European nonstop to a place like Spain or Italy would be the same thing as starting over at KCI and our very first domestic route is San Diego or Nashville. Sure they are great vacation spots and they can connect you to places and you may do business there but they are not NY, LA, Chicago, DC.
Yes, but if you’ve never had a nonstop to California and see no real chance to get one to LA or NY, you take that San Diego in a heartbeat. And that’s basically what I’m saying. London/Paris/Amsterdam/Germany just isn’t happening. Take the ‘San Diego’.
If you can almost fill a plane to LA/NY but you have like 3 people going to San Diego. San Diego is not going to happen unless you offer a mega incentive package. That is what I am saying. There isn't a "take Spain/Italy" option as these are low traffic routes without connecting opportunities. If you want to connect KC to those cities you will need a significanly larger incentive.
dev49 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:46 pm
Justin has basically said the focus is London/Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin for awhile now.
Well, Justin can keep wasting money buying drinks for the beauty queens at the bar, but they aren’t interested. He needs to lower his standards.
Lowering his standards would be iceland. That’s literally the only thing lower.
But, how does this not totally go against the narrative above that 'getting a nonstop to Europe is all about getting the business traveler' and 'business travelers don't care about cost, just speed'? There's no business in Iceland. And I seem to remember that there was close to zero travelers there until a nonstop was put in place and numbers were fine until Covid.
beautyfromashes wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:28 pm
Well, Justin can keep wasting money buying drinks for the beauty queens at the bar, but they aren’t interested. He needs to lower his standards.
Lowering his standards would be iceland. That’s literally the only thing lower.
But, how does this not totally go against the narrative above that 'getting a nonstop to Europe is all about getting the business traveler' and 'business travelers don't care about cost, just speed'? There's no business in Iceland. And I seem to remember that there was close to zero travelers there until a nonstop was put in place and numbers were fine until Covid.
Icelandair and Aer Lingus are unique in that they have significantly lower cost basis vs. any other airline that could connect KC to Europe because they can use narrow bodies. Cost Per Passenger is lower and Passenger capacity is lower making it significantly easier to run full profitable flights.
Because KEF and DUB are “one the way” to Europe, there isn’t a significant time penalty either. Both also have some sort of business/premium product and codeshare with airlines in KC.
TheUrbanRoo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 2:49 pm
Maybe we’re just gonna have to pony up more money until someone just finally says yes.
People always say this when they have a bad negotiator.
Should they be on their hands and knees begging and saying please airline pick me. I’ll cry if it helps?
Whoever puts up the most money in the mid tier cities is who gets the flight. If you don’t put up the most they will pick who does. It’s been pretty obvious that’s how it has worked for the last decade.
It’s a bid process more than a negotiation. Most money jumps the line. If they were the only ones at the table maybe I’d agree about negotiating mattering.
TheUrbanRoo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 2:49 pm
Maybe we’re just gonna have to pony up more money until someone just finally says yes.
People always say this when they have a bad negotiator.
Should they be on their hands and knees begging and saying please airline pick me. I’ll cry if it helps?
Whoever puts up the most money in the mid tier cities is who gets the flight. If you don’t put up the most they will pick who does. It’s been pretty obvious that’s how it has worked for the last decade.
It’s a bid process more than a negotiation. Most money jumps the line. If they were the only ones at the table maybe I’d agree about negotiating mattering.
And our bid is <50% of what Cincinnati and Cleveland put up this year for BA and EL
