KCRag Forum

I agree, even Krugman admits, we haven't even got rid of the virus and we're already plotting the recovery.

On the potential impact for office industry from growing permanent work-from-home momentum, discussed in another thread...

Walmart is the latest company to announce that [10,000] tech workers don’t have to return to the office anytime soon — or potentially, ever. Twitter told employees earlier this month that they can continue to work from home “forever,” if they’re in a role and situation that allows it. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company will “aggressively” ramp up its hiring of remote workers and predicted that 50% of its employees could be working remotely within the next five to 10 years.

In an internal memo sent Thursday, Walmart’s global chief technology officer, Suresh Kumar, told the tech team that office space “will be used primarily for collaboration, to sync up and strengthen camaraderie.”

And it doesn't necessarily have to be office space for occasional collaboration. Could be something like escape room team building events, etc.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/walmart ... -work.html

interesting to see for sure. Plus I'll be interested to see what the narrative is once Covid is fully behind us, we have good treatment & a vaccine, and we look at the impacts of a larger remote workforce. Right now everyone is happy and leadership in these companies have been pleasantly surprised that remote workers have been effective & efficient in their jobs. I wonder what happens when they post a bad quarter and start looking for answers if the remote worker falls under the microscope. As a manager I know I have had to deal with some instances of motivation & responsibility with remote workers. Nothing major, but I also hear from colleagues starting to notice some employees beginning to take advantage of their "looser" work environments. I think work from home works for some, and others it does not. Some people (like me) love the social aspects and look forward to having a purposeful day. By that I know I have to get up, go into work, accomplish tasks, mingle with people, meet & work with them in person. It provides me with the focus and enjoyment of work. Some need the structure because they lack the full discipline. I just think it's interesting to see companies embrace this so quickly. I grew up working in the late 90's early 2000's where companies thought technology would change the workforce like this. 20 years later it did.

My boss’s boss said that if you’re in the office it’s assumed you’re working. From home you need to prove yourself.

Technology has existed in some industries like phone systems that track productivity. Tech won’t find all lazy workers but there’s ways to make prov8jg yourself doable.

I would expect a greater focus on tasks making sure to actually close tickets with notes and the like. There will be more use of time recording systems, even for salaried employees.

earthling wrote: ↑Thu May 28, 2020 8:50 pm On the potential impact for office industry from growing permanent work-from-home momentum, discussed in another thread...

Walmart is the latest company to announce that [10,000] tech workers don’t have to return to the office anytime soon — or potentially, ever. Twitter told employees earlier this month that they can continue to work from home “forever,” if they’re in a role and situation that allows it. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company will “aggressively” ramp up its hiring of remote workers and predicted that 50% of its employees could be working remotely within the next five to 10 years.

In an internal memo sent Thursday, Walmart’s global chief technology officer, Suresh Kumar, told the tech team that office space “will be used primarily for collaboration, to sync up and strengthen camaraderie.”

And it doesn't necessarily have to be office space for occasional collaboration. Could be something like escape room team building events, etc.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/walmart ... -work.html

So are we about to see Bentonville area real estate prices plummet? I think WFH will benefit places that combine low cost of living with nice park systems, public transit, etc. I expect smaller cities and larger cities to see the hurt while mid-sized cities take off. This is assuming WFH takes off which I am not sold on yet.

Missouri had the 6th lowest unemployment rate (9.7%) in April according to BLS/Market Watch. Hot states such as Tennessee (14.7%), Texas (12.8%), and Colorado (11.3%) did not fair as well. Kansas was around Colorado’s level. Rustbelt + Nevada were hit the worst. Surprisingly Florida fared pretty well.

Yup, about same from source on last page as well. April had mostly service industry jobs hit (restaurants/tourism/hospitality related), nearly 50% lost in KC metro, though better than US avg. May data will be coming out mid-month for states and late June for metros. Should show a much wider range of industries hit. And while some service industry jobs return, is expected office jobs to continue decline next several months.

US service industry jobs are returning, driving a net improvement. However higher paying office jobs are said to be still dropping even if not at same rate as hospitality jobs returning. Metro May data should come out in about a couple weeks.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/04/business ... index.html

Airline travel appears to be rebounding better than expected. Not as high last year, but better than initial projections incorporated corona-impacts would have suggested.

office jobs (aside from government) are going back up too.

^Thanks, couldn't find the detail but the Govt/Information loss does significantly offset the other office gains. Will be interesting to see the metro details, coming in a couple weeks.

There are still nearly 21M unemployed, compared to 5.8M in Feb.

High-End Hotels Become Offices During Pandemic
https://www.barrons.com/articles/high-e ... 1590841040

A pair of Midwest hotels in historic buildings have also gotten in on the act. Housed in Chicago’s architecturally significant New York Life Insurance Building, the Kimpton Gray Hotel offers a flexible home office package that lets guests stay for the night or just a few hours.

In Kansas City’s Country Club Plaza district, the Raphael Hotel is housed in an Italian Renaissance Revival style building dating to 1928 that’s listed in the National Register of Historic Places. From 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily, office suites are offered, according to Patrick Joyce the hotel’s director of sales and marketing, who notes how the hotel is “providing a solution to people in the community looking for safe, remote workspaces without memberships or monthly commitments.”

Nearly half of US households have experienced a loss of income in some form, as job loss or pay cut, according to...

Millions Of Americans Skip Payments As Tidal Wave Of Defaults And Evictions Loom

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/03/86785660 ... ket-newtab

The coronavirus is devastating U.S. hospitals, which will lose $200 billion in revenue by the end of June
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... latestnews

Rural areas especially hard hit...

Hundreds face bankruptcy, industry experts say.

“It’s no exaggeration to say the sky is falling,” he said. “We’re already starting to see major hot spots in rural areas in Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see this is bad.”

One rural hospital in Kansas and another in West Virginia went out of business in May, and two more closed in Florida. Five are in danger of closing in Washington state, according to the state’s hospital association.

earthling wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:04 pm The coronavirus is devastating U.S. hospitals, which will lose $200 billion in revenue by the end of June
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... latestnews

Rural areas especially hard hit...

Hundreds face bankruptcy, industry experts say.

“It’s no exaggeration to say the sky is falling,” he said. “We’re already starting to see major hot spots in rural areas in Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see this is bad.”

One rural hospital in Kansas and another in West Virginia went out of business in May, and two more closed in Florida. Five are in danger of closing in Washington state, according to the state’s hospital association.

Rural areas have really been quite devastated over the last two decades. Losing jobs and now healthcare, soon hospitals. Add factory farming into that, I don’t see how the majority of rural areas can survive

May employment data for KC metro.

-The 9% overall drop from a year ago better than other Midwest metros.
-One of few showing increase in construction jobs compared to a year ago and is a high % at that. Better than hottest markets in S like Austin and Nashville.
-ProBiz services only 5.7% drop from year ago and improving from last month, better than most markets
-Hospitality doing better than US avg but still 41% lower than last year]
-Govt and Financial jobs are only two categories that are worse than last month for KC

Not out of woods yet, a secondary wave of unemployed may still occur as the impact on economy may not be fully realized yet.



https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

Here is STL, not as many categories that have improved since last month...
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-pl ... is_msa.htm

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:47 am Not out of woods yet, a secondary wave of unemployed may still occur as the impact on economy may not be fully realized yet.

The place I work has been giving some info. Revenue is still down, but up compared to the initial weeks. This due to companies expecting lower billing rates and they said they were expecting additional impacts around collecting on work done.

So there’s a backlog of work that won’t be paid for in a lot of businesses and that will cause more layoffs.

NPR picked up KC Star/kcur article regarding the impact of the economy on KC.

https://www.kcur.org/news/2020-06-28/wo ... nsive-ways