Election 2010

[AllThingsKC]

Didnt Castle have a lead in the polls over O'Donnell?  I may be mistaken, but I think it was this race that had the Palin-backed candidate down by 25 points at one point.

[grovester]

Pretty sure he had a lead but 25% was probably when she first got in.  Incidentally she won with 30k votes.  The Republican loser in the 06 general election got 70k.  She's still got a ways to go.

[NDTeve]

Not sure the purpose of the Tea Party candidates at this point. In fighting against "the tone of Washington" , they are helping the Dems win Independents. Talk about your ultimate backfire. Don't these idiots know that in running, they are keeping the folks in office that they claim to despise. I'm sorry but the point of running is to win. Not send a message.

[LenexatoKCMO]

Not sure the purpose of the Tea Party candidates at this point. In fighting against "the tone of Washington" , they are helping the Dems win Independents. Talk about your ultimate backfire. Don't these idiots know that in running, they are keeping the folks in office that they claim to despise. I'm sorry but the point of running is to win. Not send a message.

It really makes you wonder what sort of shape the Rs will be in once the economy does fully stabalize.  Without the overall feeling of economic disatisfaction fueling opposition of any kind, I have to think this little party civil war would be one hell of a lot bigger deal

[NDTeve]

The Tea Party movement is your classic overreaction. In trying to send a message, they went to the extremes. This country has little use or tolerance for the far right or far left.

[KCMax]

The Tea Party movement is your classic overreaction. In trying to send a message, they went to the extremes. This country has little use or tolerance for the far right or far left.

Well put. Its ironic the Tea Party is using the social protest of the 60s as a template since those protests largely lead to backlash and the emergence of the "silent majority" that gave us a re-birth of a conservative movement and Ronald Reagan.

[AllThingsKC]

So, I guess I'm kind of the odd ball here because I have a completely different view of the Tea Party.  So, please explain to me where I'm going wrong here.  This is my line of thinking:

O'Donnell was down by 25 points to Castle and she had "little to no chance" of beating him.  But, she did beat him which means she made up that 25% and then some.  Therefore (by my thinking), it is possible that she's has a good chance to win in the general election, even if the the polls RIGHT NOW don't show it.  I'm not saying she's going to win, but she clearly has some momentum going on into the general.  Plus, she has the Tea Party base fired up.  Yes, she'll need more than the Tea Party base to win, but she wasn't supposed to even make it this far.  

Now, as we get closer to the election, if she's still down in polls, than that's another story.  But, for now, I see no reason why she can't win the General the same way she won the Primary.

Again, this is just my line of thinking (and there may be some factors I'm not considering).

[grovester]

she always has a chance, but primaries and generals are 2 different animals.  How does the tea party "pivot" to the center?

[AllThingsKC]

she always has a chance, but primaries and generals are 2 different animals.

Agreed.  However...

How does the tea party "pivot" to the center?

Who says it has to "pivot" to the center?  While I understand the General is a completely different animal than the primary (and O'Donnell is down in the polls), what they've been doing so far has been working.

[aknowledgeableperson]

Whether you have Tea Party support or mainstream Republican support, and in a few cases you might have both, you have a decent chance to win if you get the voters out and the Dems do not.  And that is what the talking heads are talking about now - no enthusiasm on the Dem side of the ballot.

[grovester]

they've been nominated on red meat to the base, that's not going to fly with the general electorate.  I repeat, she got 30,000 votes in the primary.  The last general election loser got 70,000.  If she gets doubles her votes she'll lose 2 to 1.

[AllThingsKC]

they've been nominated on red meat to the base, that's not going to fly with the general electorate.  I repeat, she got 30,000 votes in the primary.  The last general election loser got 70,000.  If she gets doubles her votes she'll lose 2 to 1.

But, you just said:

...primaries and generals are 2 different animals.

So, why compare the number of primary votes to the number of general votes?  

I don't mean to debate you on this.  You may very well be correct.  But, I'm seeing that she has raised $750,000 to her campaign since the primary (yes, in less than 24 hours) and the NRSC has said they will support her.  She may not win the general, but I think she has gotten the momentum.  From being 25 points down in the polls, to raising $750,000 in 24 hours....that's nothing shy of amazing.  Will that be enough to change the current polls?  We'll see as we get closer to the election.

That's why I don't understand the whole "The Tea Party is hurting the GOP" argument.  If the Tea Party is hurting the GOP, I just don't see it yet.  I may see it as we get closer to Election Day, but I don't see it yet.

Edit: According to her website, she's close to $1 million in donations already, since the PRIMARY.  If her numbers are true, that's $1 million raised in less than 24 hours.

[aknowledgeableperson]

Concern expressed by the VP.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39203810/ns ... ision_2010

Vice President Joe Biden urged Democrats on Wednesday not to underestimate Tea Party candidates, saying that if progressives didn't get energized for the November election, there would be serious consequences for "the things we care most about."

In an interview on "The Rachel Maddow Show" on msnbc, Biden said he was taking victories by Tea Party-backed candidates in GOP primaries "very, very seriously."

"I wouldn’t sell short these candidates," Biden said, adding that he expected money to pour into such races as the one for his old Senate seat in Delaware.

[KCMax]

There are 290,000 registered Dems in Delaware, 180,000 Republicans and about 100,000 independents. That's the basic math. Its a blue state. Its all well and good that Christine O'Donnell was able to convince 30,000 registered Republicans to vote for her, but she still has a long way to go to convince the rest of the left-leaning electorate.

[AllThingsKC]

Isn't that the same problems Castle would have faced? Being a Republican in a blue state? I know he was polling high in Delware, there is X number of registered Dems and Republicans to face.

I know she has a long way to go and she may not be able to do it for all I know. She has farther to go than if Castle had won, but sounds like she's will be facing what any Republican would be facing in a blue state.

[NDTeve]

There are 290,000 registered Dems in Delaware, 180,000 Republicans and about 100,000 independents. That's the basic math. Its a blue state. Its all well and good that Christine O'Donnell was able to convince 30,000 registered Republicans to vote for her, but she still has a long way to go to convince the rest of the left-leaning electorate.

Either that or get a helluva lot more people registered to vote.

[KCMax]

Isn't that the same problems Castle would have faced? Being a Republican in a blue state? I know he was polling high in Delware, there is X number of registered Dems and Republicans to face.

I know she has a long way to go and she may not be able to do it for all I know. She has farther to go than if Castle had won, but sounds like she's will be facing what any Republican would be facing in a blue state.

He's pretty moderate. Its like the Kansas Governor's race. While Kansas is very red, if the GOP nominates a far right candidate, and the Dems can nominate a moderate candidate, the electorate will pick the Dem. Delaware will pick a popular moderate Republican if the Dem is a weak candidate (Coons has his issues), but they will not elect a far right candidate, especially not a social conservative.

I don't think O'Donnell should be completely dismissed and she could certainly mount a challenge. But she's a political novice, has already demonstrated some campaign missteps, and faces a huge uphill battle. Having the GOP establishment pretty much abandon her isn't going to help.

[LenexatoKCMO]

Isn't that the same problems Castle would have faced? Being a Republican in a blue state? I know he was polling high in Delware, there is X number of registered Dems and Republicans to face.

I know she has a long way to go and she may not be able to do it for all I know. She has farther to go than if Castle had won, but sounds like she's will be facing what any Republican would be facing in a blue state.

A moderate R in a heavily blue state might have been able to just squeak past this year on the basis of Dem apathy keeping them away and R enthusiasm.  But when you run the fanatic, not only will a certain portion of R's not show up out of repulsion, a huge portion of independents will stay away in droves, and you will fire up at least a small additional portion of D's that will turn up merely due to disgust at your candidate.  In a blue state, a R will always need independents to win and it is becoming increasingly clear that tea bagger appeal amongst independents is near nil.  In more of a toss up state or red-leaning state, Tea Bag enthusiasm and Dem/Indep apathy will be more than enough to get these characters over but not in DE.  

[grovester]

But, you just said:

So, why compare the number of primary votes to the number of general votes?  

I don't mean to debate you on this.  You may very well be correct.  But, I'm seeing that she has raised $750,000 to her campaign since the primary (yes, in less than 24 hours) and the NRSC has said they will support her.  She may not win the general, but I think she has gotten the momentum.  From being 25 points down in the polls, to raising $750,000 in 24 hours....that's nothing shy of amazing.  Will that be enough to change the current polls?  We'll see as we get closer to the election.

That's why I don't understand the whole "The Tea Party is hurting the GOP" argument.  If the Tea Party is hurting the GOP, I just don't see it yet.  I may see it as we get closer to Election Day, but I don't see it yet.

Edit: According to her website, she's close to $1 million in donations already, since the PRIMARY.  If her numbers are true, that's $1 million raised in less than 24 hours.

In primaries you're preaching to the converted or near-so:
Lower taxes
Less government
more jobs
insert generic platitude here

In the general you're preaching to skeptics and she has a lot to be skeptical about.  BTW her sudden financial windfall is undoubtably from out of state interests.

[KCMax]

Awesome.

Jon Stewart Plans to Rally Against Extremism

On his own show, Mr. Colbert announced his own counter, mock-extremist ?March to Keep Fear Alive.?

Mr. Stewart also promised to supply the crowd with signs if they did not bring their own, including as examples, ?I Disagree With You, But I?m Pretty Sure You?re Not Hitler,? and ?Take It Down a Notch, America.?