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Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:33 pm
by earthling
For July, KC metro employment is essentially back to July 2019 level (99.8% returned). This is as reported by employers...
US overall stuck back to 2016 level...
STL metro at 2015 level...
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:51 pm
by AlkaliAxel
Why doesn't the MO state government ever acknowledge how bad STL is just doing in general?
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:32 pm
by normalthings
AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:51 pm
Why doesn't the MO state government ever acknowledge how bad STL is just doing in general?
STL refuses to acknowledge how bad STL is doing.
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:33 pm
by langosta
I rarely visit UrbanSTL. The last time I was there, someone was getting chewed out for posting the monthly employment data that showed Saint Louis lagging behind Kansas City and almost every other peer city.
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:34 pm
by beautyfromashes
normalthings wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:32 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:51 pm
Why doesn't the MO state government ever acknowledge how bad STL is just doing in general?
STL refuses to acknowledge how bad STL is doing.
Wow, this couldn't be more true.
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:39 pm
by Riverite
I don’t think they don’t realize the struggle, I think that it is a bit of a chip on the shoulder. My guess is that when people are putting both data on one post it becomes a bit of a comparison game, it’s not an issue here because KC is growing and doing really well so there tends not to be too much bitterness with city comparisons.
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:49 pm
by AlkaliAxel
normalthings wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:32 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:51 pm
Why doesn't the MO state government ever acknowledge how bad STL is just doing in general?
STL refuses to acknowledge how bad STL is doing.
Such a good take
Re: Economy
Posted: Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:40 pm
by earthling
July MO side of KC metro has passed up July 2019 by 4K employment...
July KS side of KC metro about 6K employment behind July 2019...
edit: fixed wrong images
Re: Economy
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:42 am
by earthling
MO side of metro still taking off with Pro Biz Services employment, the most notable of all employment categories...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2992 ... raphs=true
KS side of metro was struggling with Pro Biz Services even before COVID...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2092 ... raphs=true
Re: Economy
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:27 am
by normalthings
KC added 20,000 employed and 12,000 to the labor force in August.
Re: Economy
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:29 am
by Riverite
normalthings wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:27 am
KC added 20,000 employed and 12,000 to the labor force
On top of 2019 numbers? Or are we still under?
Re: Economy
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:35 am
by normalthings
Riverite wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:29 am
normalthings wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:27 am
KC added 20,000 employed and 12,000 to the labor force in August
On top of 2019 numbers? Or are we still under?
Above 2019. Around 2%+ growth
Re: Economy
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:43 am
by earthling
Labor force and employment as reported by workers continue to climb as if pandemic didn't happen. Though raw unemployment still not quite recovered. Given the unusual high labor force growth compared to US avg, might partly mean some people are moving here without job. And partly possible WFA with job based elsewhere also moving here.
It's July report BTW, Aug releases next month. BLS has been running behind.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT29 ... raphs=true
Re: Economy
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:39 am
by kboish
earthling wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:43 am
Labor force and employment as reported by workers continue to climb as if pandemic didn't happen. Though raw unemployment still not quite recovered. Given the unusual high labor force growth compared to US avg, might partly mean some people are moving here without job. And partly possible WFA with job based elsewhere also moving here.
It's July report BTW, Aug releases next month. BLS has been running behind.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT29 ... raphs=true
Anecdata-
I definitely have met a number of people who moved here over the past year and work remotely. Often it is a couple who moved and one of the couple has a physical job here and the other had the ability to keep job they currently hold and work from home.
Beyond even just work from home i am meeting lots of people who are moving into my neighborhood and surrounding area who moved here recently
Re: Economy
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm
by earthling
^WFA with job based elsewhere seems to be a thing now and BLS should probably track as a new separate data point.
Re: Economy
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:16 am
by earthling
More on KC July labor force/employment. As a reminder BLS has two tracking methods, one via reported by employers/companies and other via reported by labor force/workers. This is from the latter report. Take with gran of salt as significant revisions sometimes happen.
KC labor force/employment is significantly standing out relative to US avg and rest of Midwest.
KC Labor Force up to July 2021
US Labor Force up to July 2021
Checked the Midwest major cities and only Indy comes close. Even hot Nashville just catching up with Labor Force...
On Employment as reported by workers, KC is one of few metros that is well above 2019 peak, even relatively outpacing
DFW and
Austin.
KC metro...
US Employment as reported by workers up to July 2021...
Nashville not yet caught up...
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
Re: Economy
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:24 am
by Riverite
earthling wrote: ↑Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:16 am
More on KC July labor force/employment. As a reminder BLS has two tracking methods, one via reported by employers/companies and other via reported by labor force/workers. This is from the latter report. Take with gran of salt as significant revisions sometimes happen.
KC labor force/employment is significantly standing out relative to US avg and rest of Midwest.
KC Labor Force up to July 2021
US Labor Force up to July 2021
Checked the Midwest major cities and only Indy comes close. Even hot Nashville just catching up with Labor Force...
On Employment as reported by workers, KC is one of few metros that is well above 2019 peak, even relatively outpacing
DFW and
Austin.
KC metro...
US Employment as reported by workers up to July 2021...
Nashville not yet caught up...
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
Great news wonder if we are seeing a mass migration in and if we will see a subsequent development boom
Re: Economy
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:43 am
by earthling
Hard to say if mass migration but KC's jump in labor force is above average pace so probably means more in-migration than normal. BLS often revises these numbers though.
KC and Indy are consistently hot relative to Midwest in most every economic/construction related categories, with Columbus and Minneapolis hot in several as well. There are some indicators that show KC is as hot as the South but not consistently.
Re: Economy
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 1:44 pm
by normalthings
98-100% leased at One and Two Light is a good sign for in/out flows. Construction costs vs. rents/sale prices remain tight in KC though. The people moving to Nashville and Austin are "loaded" in the way that those moving to KC evidently aren't. Despite WFH, we still need to land some tech or banking jobs downtown to continue driving apartments.
Re: Economy
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2021 2:00 pm
by normalthings
Keep those interest rates low through 2022 and we might be able to see 1650 Broadway, Sky & Main, 4 Light, and Freighthouse Village/Podium take off.