Politics

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Chris Stritzel
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Re: Politics

Post by Chris Stritzel »

I’m really happy the season of campaign ads is over. It seems they get worse and worse each time.
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Re: Politics

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DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:31 am Desantis is such a better option than Trump for the GOP but Trump won’t go away.

Only real WTF for me this election is Fetterman winning. How can a man clearly not medically fit to serve win. I feel bad for him as I’m guessing he had powerful people pushing him to stay in it at all costs despite his health.
What is Trump going to do? Last night was a less than subtle message to the Republican Party that Trump is an anchor. He has his fanatical base but that has shrunk considerably and independent voters are rejecting that shrinking corner of the party. Hopefully, last night was his swan song as a politician. If he doesn't like losing, he should just fade away quietly because DeSantis will absolutely trounce him if he runs.

There are a lot of people not fit to serve. I hope Fetterman gets on OK in the senate health wise. Trump was not ethically fit to serve but lasted 4 years despite an ethical violation that would have cost anyone else in US their career.
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Re: Politics

Post by KCtoBrooklyn »

brewcrew1000 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:50 amIf Desantis does run I could see a blowout in 2024 vs Biden
I'm skeptical. I don't think there is a ton of reliable polling on this, but this site is probably the most comprehensive I could find, and shows an average of Biden over DeSantis, 42.6% to 39.5%, with a large undecided amount of 18%:
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

But there are many other factors. First of all, I think there is a good chance Biden doesn't run for reelection - although I'm not sure who would replace him.

Also, in order for DeSantis to have a shot in the general election, he would need Trump to step aside and endorse him, which I think is unlikely. It seems all but certain that Trump will run again (although I wouldn't put using this tease a con to grift his supporters past him). Just yesterday he was threatening to leak damaging info on DeSantis. That may be an empty threat, but we know that he would run a vicious, scorched earth campaign.

And if Trump looks like he is going to loose the nomination, I think there is a good chance he runs as an Independent. At the least, I think he would dissuade enough of his hardcore supporters from voting for DeSantis to cost Republicans the election. The number of those hardcore Trump fans may be relatively small and shrinking, but I don't think a Republican can win without them.
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Re: Politics

Post by Link2 »

Highlander wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:11 am
DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:31 am Desantis is such a better option than Trump for the GOP but Trump won’t go away.

Only real WTF for me this election is Fetterman winning. How can a man clearly not medically fit to serve win. I feel bad for him as I’m guessing he had powerful people pushing him to stay in it at all costs despite his health.
What is Trump going to do? Last night was a less than subtle message to the Republican Party that Trump is an anchor. He has his fanatical base but that has shrunk considerably and independent voters are rejecting that shrinking corner of the party. Hopefully, last night was his swan song as a politician. If he doesn't like losing, he should just fade away quietly because DeSantis will absolutely trounce him if he runs.

There are a lot of people not fit to serve. I hope Fetterman gets on OK in the senate health wise. Trump was not ethically fit to serve but lasted 4 years despite an ethical violation that would have cost anyone else in US their career.
Fetterman has looked much improved on the campaign trail over the past month since the debate -- it's clear he's going to be okay or close to it. My question as far as fitness for office would focus almost exclusively on Walker in GA.
Last edited by Link2 on Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Politics

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KCtoBrooklyn wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:38 pm
brewcrew1000 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:50 amIf Desantis does run I could see a blowout in 2024 vs Biden
The number of those hardcore Trump fans may be relatively small and shrinking, but I don't think a Republican can win without them.
Yes in a general election. The republican party has a base of support that it absolutely has to have to win any election. But they may not be enough to get Trump or his hand picked candidates through a primary and I think much of the GOP will be thoroughly aligned against Trump. I would not put it past Trump to run as a third party candidate. If the GOP rejects him, he would attempt to destroy their chances of winning. He's just that type of guy.
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Re: Politics

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Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.

That said, he would still likely win Vs Biden unless there’s a dramatic change in the Biden administration. Doesn’t sound like he’s going to go the Clinton route and modify anything, instead he’s going to dig in ever more. So I expect our country to continue its downhill trajectory for 2 more years.

Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run. Add in a Nicki Haley or Tim Scott and you’ve got a powerful combo.

I personally think it’s imperative to get someone new in the white house and no secret I lean right. Would love to have Desantis in there but I dread the choice of Biden or Trump.
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Re: Politics

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DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.

That said, he would still likely win Vs Biden unless there’s a dramatic change in the Biden administration. Doesn’t sound like he’s going to go the Clinton route and modify anything, instead he’s going to dig in ever more. So I expect our country to continue its downhill trajectory for 2 more years.

Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run. Add in a Nicki Haley or Tim Scott and you’ve got a powerful combo.

I personally think it’s imperative to get someone new in the white house and no secret I lean right. Would love to have Desantis in there but I dread the choice of Biden or Trump.
Strong copium right there. All things stay the same (Biden's health, low unemployment, slowing if not completely tamed inflation prints, relatively minor recession that's basically priced into the markets at this point) then Biden would be in a very strong position against Trump. Reality check, Nikki Haley isn't going anywhere in today's GOP. Desantis would be a strong contender, probably a favorite in the general but would have to consolidate enough support from the foaming at the mouth Trumplicans to make it through a primary.
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Re: Politics

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Can someone tell me what the republican plans were for fighting inflation? The only thing I heard from them was cutting taxes.

Cutting taxes is one of the last things you want to do in an inflationary economy.
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Re: Politics

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DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run.
It's probably not warranted, but I have a little more faith in the American people than that. I don't think they want someone who will use taxpayer funds to fly immigrants who are in this country legally from Texas, into his own state, just so he can traffic them to another state to score political points. I think people want someone who will actually govern and accomplish something, not just pull stunts in an attempt to "own the libs". We have already had a divisive internet troll run this country and we don't need another.
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Re: Politics

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KCtoBrooklyn wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:54 pm
DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run.
It's probably not warranted, but I have a little more faith in the American people than that. I don't think they want someone who will use taxpayer funds to fly immigrants who are in this country legally from Texas, into his own state, just so he can traffic them to another state to score political points. I think people want someone who will actually govern and accomplish something, not just pull stunts in an attempt to "own the libs". We have already had a divisive internet troll run this country and we don't need another.
I think your faith in the voting public is unwarranted, especially since they elected Trump, and Desantis just won Florida decisively.
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Re: Politics

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DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.

That said, he would still likely win Vs Biden unless there’s a dramatic change in the Biden administration. Doesn’t sound like he’s going to go the Clinton route and modify anything, instead he’s going to dig in ever more. So I expect our country to continue its downhill trajectory for 2 more years.

Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run. Add in a Nicki Haley or Tim Scott and you’ve got a powerful combo.

I personally think it’s imperative to get someone new in the white house and no secret I lean right. Would love to have Desantis in there but I dread the choice of Biden or Trump.
There's no way Trump would win in 2024 against Biden. If the Dems can perform as they did last night facing historic headwinds and the standard trouncing the party in power typically takes in the midterms, 2024 looks great for the Dems.

Desantis won't beat Biden either.
Last edited by Link2 on Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Politics

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shinatoo wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:59 pm
KCtoBrooklyn wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:54 pm
DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run.
It's probably not warranted, but I have a little more faith in the American people than that. I don't think they want someone who will use taxpayer funds to fly immigrants who are in this country legally from Texas, into his own state, just so he can traffic them to another state to score political points. I think people want someone who will actually govern and accomplish something, not just pull stunts in an attempt to "own the libs". We have already had a divisive internet troll run this country and we don't need another.
I think your faith in the voting public is unwarranted, especially since they elected Trump, and Desantis just won Florida decisively.
Florida is not representative of the national electorate.
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Re: Politics

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Link2 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:00 pm
shinatoo wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:59 pm
KCtoBrooklyn wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:54 pm

It's probably not warranted, but I have a little more faith in the American people than that. I don't think they want someone who will use taxpayer funds to fly immigrants who are in this country legally from Texas, into his own state, just so he can traffic them to another state to score political points. I think people want someone who will actually govern and accomplish something, not just pull stunts in an attempt to "own the libs". We have already had a divisive internet troll run this country and we don't need another.
I think your faith in the voting public is unwarranted, especially since they elected Trump, and Desantis just won Florida decisively.
Florida is not representative of the national electorate.
Doesn't have to be, the presidential race isn't a popular vote race. You win Florida and you have a strong chance of winning it all.
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Re: Politics

Post by Link2 »

shinatoo wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:12 pm
Link2 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:00 pm
shinatoo wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:59 pm

I think your faith in the voting public is unwarranted, especially since they elected Trump, and Desantis just won Florida decisively.
Florida is not representative of the national electorate.
Doesn't have to be, the presidential race isn't a popular vote race. You win Florida and you have a strong chance of winning it all.
Florida goes as Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach go -- and that area of Florida is so much different than almost any other place in the U.S. Miami has experienced a rightward shift, largely based on the massive Cuban population in the area. While most other urban areas in the U.S. are moving further to the left.

Trump won Florida in 2020 -- it's no longer a swing state.
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Re: Politics

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DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.
Seriously doubt that. Remember it is not his fault on anything that goes wrong, it is always someone else's blame.
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Re: Politics

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brewcrew1000 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:50 am
If Desantis does run I could see a blowout in 2024 vs Biden
Two years is a very long time in politics. Even 4 months is a long time. In July Democratic prospects were looking good just afetr the abortion ruling. Since then inflation has taken center stage.
And don't forget in January 2020 Biden was just about dead last among the Democrats running for the Dem nomination and Trump looked like it just might be an easy reelection campaign.
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Re: Politics

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Link2 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:00 pm Florida is not representative of the national electorate.
Right. I do think the majority is ready to move away from the divisive, corrosive politics. Manufacturing boogeymen like "Woke CRT litter boxes filled with trick-or-treat Rainbow Fentanyl!!" might work to frighten the boomer Fox News addicts of The Villages, but I think the nations is ready to move on from culture wars. I just think DeSantis is so highly unlikable that he will have problems appealing to moderates around the nation.

The electorate is getting younger, although seniors still vote at a much higher rate. But in another two years, more Gen Z will be eligible to vote and more of the Silent Generation will have passed. Frightening Grandma about the "others" will be a less effective tactic.
aknowledgeableperson wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:14 pm
DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.
Seriously doubt that. Remember it is not his fault on anything that goes wrong, it is always someone else's blame.
I have a hard time believing that Trump won't run. Whether true or not, I think he believes running for President will help shield him from the numerous investigations and lawsuits he is facing.
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Re: Politics

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aknowledgeableperson wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:21 pm
brewcrew1000 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:50 am
If Desantis does run I could see a blowout in 2024 vs Biden
Two years is a very long time in politics. Even 4 months is a long time. In July Democratic prospects were looking good just afetr the abortion ruling. Since then inflation has taken center stage.
And don't forget in January 2020 Biden was just about dead last among the Democrats running for the Dem nomination and Trump looked like it just might be an easy reelection campaign.
2 years is a very long time when two of the major players are 79 and 76 (Biden and Trump respectively). A lot could happen health/mental state wise to either of these men in the next two years.
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Re: Politics

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FlippantCitizen wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:48 pm
DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.

That said, he would still likely win Vs Biden unless there’s a dramatic change in the Biden administration. Doesn’t sound like he’s going to go the Clinton route and modify anything, instead he’s going to dig in ever more. So I expect our country to continue its downhill trajectory for 2 more years.

Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run. Add in a Nicki Haley or Tim Scott and you’ve got a powerful combo.

I personally think it’s imperative to get someone new in the white house and no secret I lean right. Would love to have Desantis in there but I dread the choice of Biden or Trump.
Strong copium right there. All things stay the same (Biden's health, low unemployment, slowing if not completely tamed inflation prints, relatively minor recession that's basically priced into the markets at this point) then Biden would be in a very strong position against Trump. Reality check, Nikki Haley isn't going anywhere in today's GOP. Desantis would be a strong contender, probably a favorite in the general but would have to consolidate enough support from the foaming at the mouth Trumplicans to make it through a primary.
Why wouldn’t Nikki Haley go anywhere in todays GOP?

The Democratic pundits were literally wondering if Biden would step aside had the republicans got the ‘red wave’ they wanted. Biden is one of the least popular presidents in recent history and members of his own party have distanced themselves from him. He essentially accomplished nothing the average American can feel or see in their daily lives with his first two years, I’m not sure how he turns that around now without Democratic control of the house and senate.


Then you have his declining health and please don’t pretend he’s a spry, energetic and bright old man. He’s not.

Desantis with the full support of the republicans and yes, without Trump fanatics against him would win Vs anyone the dems could find to run. I thought this was fairly clear by polls and even in most media coverage I’ve seen it discussed. And no, I’m not a Fox News junkie like all left leaning people like to assume all non-liberals are.
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Re: Politics

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Link2 wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:59 pm
DColeKC wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:24 pm Hopefully Trump sees these results as a sign his power has diminished. He is not the king maker.

That said, he would still likely win Vs Biden unless there’s a dramatic change in the Biden administration. Doesn’t sound like he’s going to go the Clinton route and modify anything, instead he’s going to dig in ever more. So I expect our country to continue its downhill trajectory for 2 more years.

Desantis would absolutely destroy anyone the democrats could run. Add in a Nicki Haley or Tim Scott and you’ve got a powerful combo.

I personally think it’s imperative to get someone new in the white house and no secret I lean right. Would love to have Desantis in there but I dread the choice of Biden or Trump.
There's no way Trump would win in 2024 against Biden. If the Dems can perform as they did last night facing historic headwinds and the standard trouncing the party in power typically takes in the midterms, 2024 looks great for the Dems.

Desantis won't beat Biden either.
I think you’re wrongfully confident in Biden. But 2024 will play out over the next 18 months.
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