2022 Senate Race

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Fountains
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Fountains »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:05 pm
Fountains wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:03 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:51 pm

Ha. That's gonna happen whether you like it or not. The only question is how much time is left on the clock for rural Kansas. From the data I've worked on, they've got about 8 years left before it's even. It'll start becoming an intense issue in the 2026 midterms (if GOP wins presidency in 2024)
They've been saying that since 2006.
Idk what they did or said back then but there was no evidence for it in 2006. The first sign was 2016. Then 2020 confirmed it.
What signs were that?
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by AlkaliAxel »

Fountains wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:25 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:05 pm
Fountains wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:03 pm

They've been saying that since 2006.
Idk what they did or said back then but there was no evidence for it in 2006. The first sign was 2016. Then 2020 confirmed it.
What signs were that?
2012- R+21.6
2016- R+20.4
2020- R+14.6

It's shifting, and it picked up a ton of pace there. We'll see how fast of a pace it stays at, but I think it'll be around R+10 in 2024. Especially with Trump.
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Fountains »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:01 am
Fountains wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:25 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:05 pm

Idk what they did or said back then but there was no evidence for it in 2006. The first sign was 2016. Then 2020 confirmed it.
What signs were that?
2012- R+21.6
2016- R+20.4
2020- R+14.6

It's shifting, and it picked up a ton of pace there. We'll see how fast of a pace it stays at, but I think it'll be around R+10 in 2024. Especially with Trump.
It's interesting that you left out 2008 because had you included it that from 2008-2016 would have disproven your narrative. What changed was peoples approval of Trump. Kansas wasn't the only state where this happened.
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by AlkaliAxel »

Fountains wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:18 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:01 am
Fountains wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:25 pm

What signs were that?
2012- R+21.6
2016- R+20.4
2020- R+14.6

It's shifting, and it picked up a ton of pace there. We'll see how fast of a pace it stays at, but I think it'll be around R+10 in 2024. Especially with Trump.
It's interesting that you left out 2008 because had you included it that from 2008-2016 would have disproven your narrative. What changed was peoples approval of Trump. Kansas wasn't the only state where this happened.
If you actually understood modern political trends then you'd know why 2008 isn't here- because 2016 is when the *realignment* occurred. The parties represent different views than now they did in 2008. The only reason 2012 is even shown here is to show the shift towards the realignment.

Post-2016 is all that matters now because the parties shifted massively under Trump. Rust Belt states are red now, sun belt is blue. This wasn't even remotely a thing before 2016.

So yes, Kansas is shifting very quickly to the left. By literally every modern metric. And no, not all 50 states are doing that. Many, many states have gotten redder because of Trump.
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Fountains »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:24 pm
Fountains wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:18 pm
AlkaliAxel wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:01 am

2012- R+21.6
2016- R+20.4
2020- R+14.6

It's shifting, and it picked up a ton of pace there. We'll see how fast of a pace it stays at, but I think it'll be around R+10 in 2024. Especially with Trump.
It's interesting that you left out 2008 because had you included it that from 2008-2016 would have disproven your narrative. What changed was peoples approval of Trump. Kansas wasn't the only state where this happened.
If you actually understood modern political trends then you'd know why 2008 isn't here- because 2016 is when the *realignment* occurred. The parties represent different views than now they did in 2008. The only reason 2012 is even shown here is to show the shift towards the realignment.

Post-2016 is all that matters now because the parties shifted massively under Trump. Rust Belt states are red now, sun belt is blue. This wasn't even remotely a thing before 2016.

So yes, Kansas is shifting very quickly to the left. By literally every modern metric. And no, not all 50 states are doing that. Many, many states have gotten redder because of Trump.
This is incorrect. There's a countless number of states where Trump in 2020 that were by a much smaller margin than his victory in 2016. Kansas is not shifting into a purple state that's almost as absurd as your claim that JoCo is going to play ball with KCMO.
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AlkaliAxel
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by AlkaliAxel »

Fountains wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:50 pm This is incorrect. There's a countless number of states where Trump in 2020 that were by a much smaller margin than his victory in 2016. Kansas is not shifting into a purple state that's almost as absurd as your claim that JoCo is going to play ball with KCMO.
Political data is my speciality. It's not that hard to read if you know the intricacies of election cycles.
- Kansas was one of like 11 states in 2016 that actually moved to Dems.
- KS was also in the top 8(?) states with the sharpest shifts to the left in 2020

Two elections cycles in a row it's one of the biggest movers against the national trends. It really is indisputable too, both GOP & Dem pundits recognize Kansas's shift left. KS & Alaska are the top two targets for Dems to hit by 2030. If it goes down to 10 or less by 2024 then it'll be right on track.

As for JoCo this is something nobody has ever encountered before- Dems owning Johnson County, They're demonstrably not as hostile as your 2004 JoCo Republicans. Yes I absolutely think they will be alot better than what we're used to to when they take the state government in 2030.
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by chingon »

FangKC wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:25 pm GOP strategist Jeff Roe will annihilate Busch-Valentine
Axiom's prowess lies mostly in the minds of the KC Star editorial board.
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by phuqueue »

Rust belt states trending red was most definitely a thing before 2016, even if it caught the incompetent Dem establishment flatfooted. Their margins in Wisconsin were already razor thin in 2000 and 2004, their margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania shrank considerably from 1996 to 2000 and then again from 2000 to 2004, and Ohio straight up went red in 2000 and 2004 and is now a solidly red state. Obama temporarily clawed back Ohio and rebuilt the Dem margins in the other three states in 2008, but that election was an aberration -- even Indiana (only time since 1964) and North Carolina (only time since 1976) went blue that year. His margins in each of those states fell significantly in 2012 (and of course he did not win Indiana or North Carolina again). The writing was on the wall for anyone who bothered to read it, which didn't include Dem strategists who spent the 2016 campaign season looking for opportunities to run up the score in red states (because, yes, the trend of sunbelt states moving left was also already underway at that time, albeit not nearly as mature as the rightward swing of the rust belt) instead of securing their position in the states they actually needed to win. The parties didn't shift "under Trump," Trump didn't single-handedly provoke a realignment, he just took advantage of changes that were already taking place. As those changes develop and crystallize, more recent data does become more relevant than older data, but it's overreaching to say that nothing before 2016 matters at all because Trump fundamentally changed the game.

As far as Kansas is concerned, my sense is that the apparent moderation taking place there in recent years has much less to do with Trump than with a combination of these nationwide trends + reaction to Brownback's ruinous governance. Kansas might have "moved to Dems" in 2016, but not by much (Romney: +21.7, Trump: +20.6). Trump's margin fell in 2020 (+14.65), but it was still comparable to McCain's in 2008 (+14.96), which represented a notably larger drop compared to 2004 (Bush +25.38), and yet, in 2008 nobody was stringing these two data points together to announce that Kansas was becoming a purple state. JoCo is not large enough to commandeer Kansas politics, so I suspect that, although KS might continue to moderate to some extent, there is still a hard floor of support for the GOP there that will not be overcome absent major demographic shifts.
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