COVID19

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Highlander
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Re: COVID19

Post by Highlander »

phuqueue wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:01 pm
grovester wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:53 pm But then Trump went and lost MI, WI, and PA in 2020 by the same margin (or more) that he won in 2016.

Meanwhile seemingly safe red states like AZ and GA go blue.

I would argue that Trump's wave crested in 2016 and he will bet beat by a bigger margin in 2024.
I would not argue that. The margins were thin in both elections, but they seem to be trending in the same direction as Ohio before them and, well, Missouri before that. Hanging your hat on winning Wisconsin by less than 1%, where the guy you beat was a historically unpopular president in the middle of bungling a pandemic, seems ill-advised to me.
AlkaliAxel wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:12 pm 10 years ago, it was a pipe dream that a Republican could ever win OH, PA, WI, MI, ME, MN or heck even Iowa. Even FL is solid GOP now. So...they sacrificed GA and maybe AZ now? They'll take that deal any day of the week. They might lose some, like in 2020, but they'll also stand a much better chance to win than the Romney/Bush 2012 coalition does.
10 years ago, Republicans were only one cycle removed from winning in Ohio (for the second time in a row), Iowa, and Florida (also twice in a row), so I don't know about "pipe dream."
I hate to say it but I would not count Trump out yet in 2024. Biden got elected because a majority of people despised Trump not because he was a particularly strong candidate. It took a massive voter turnout to make that happen.

The Republicans have done what they could since the election to make sure that kind of turnout doesn't happen in the contested states where they have some control. Also, Biden's approval ratings are very poor right now and he's going to need to make a pretty big effort to turn those numbers around. The republicans are going to keep nominating candidates that much of the country finds repugnant (no doubt about that) it's just whether or not the democrats can counter with a credible candidate that can motivate the moderates in both parties and independents to vote their way. Biden is definitely a moderate but he may not be that candidate.
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Re: COVID19

Post by FangKC »

One of the biggest problems this country faces is the simple fact that Democrats congregate in a few states, and give the GOP uncontested control of too many states and possible electoral votes. This makes it possible for GOP presidential candidates to lose the popular vote, and still win the presidency. In some states, just 50,000 more Democrats living there would block any GOP candidate from winning the electoral votes for that state. It would at least make the state more competitive. This would also benefit the GOP since the more extreme candidates would never have a chance and it would produce more moderation.
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Re: COVID19

Post by AllThingsKC »

FangKC wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:49 am One of the biggest problems this country faces is the simple fact that Democrats congregate in a few states...
This is one of the "biggest problems this country faces"?
KC is the way to be!
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grovester
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Re: COVID19

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Highlander wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:46 pm
phuqueue wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:01 pm
grovester wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:53 pm But then Trump went and lost MI, WI, and PA in 2020 by the same margin (or more) that he won in 2016.

Meanwhile seemingly safe red states like AZ and GA go blue.

I would argue that Trump's wave crested in 2016 and he will bet beat by a bigger margin in 2024.
I would not argue that. The margins were thin in both elections, but they seem to be trending in the same direction as Ohio before them and, well, Missouri before that. Hanging your hat on winning Wisconsin by less than 1%, where the guy you beat was a historically unpopular president in the middle of bungling a pandemic, seems ill-advised to me.
AlkaliAxel wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:12 pm 10 years ago, it was a pipe dream that a Republican could ever win OH, PA, WI, MI, ME, MN or heck even Iowa. Even FL is solid GOP now. So...they sacrificed GA and maybe AZ now? They'll take that deal any day of the week. They might lose some, like in 2020, but they'll also stand a much better chance to win than the Romney/Bush 2012 coalition does.
10 years ago, Republicans were only one cycle removed from winning in Ohio (for the second time in a row), Iowa, and Florida (also twice in a row), so I don't know about "pipe dream."
I hate to say it but I would not count Trump out yet in 2024. Biden got elected because a majority of people despised Trump not because he was a particularly strong candidate. It took a massive voter turnout to make that happen.

The Republicans have done what they could since the election to make sure that kind of turnout doesn't happen in the contested states where they have some control. Also, Biden's approval ratings are very poor right now and he's going to need to make a pretty big effort to turn those numbers around. The republicans are going to keep nominating candidates that much of the country finds repugnant (no doubt about that) it's just whether or not the democrats can counter with a credible candidate that can motivate the moderates in both parties and independents to vote their way. Biden is definitely a moderate but he may not be that candidate.
Trump got elected in 2016 due in large part to anti-Hillary sentiment and because voters thought he deserved the chance.
Those voters quickly discovered the error of their ways and voted out the gop in 2018 and Trump specifically in 2020 (I think most people wanted divided government).
These voters are not going back to Trump in 2024. Some other gop candidate? Maybe. But there is the rub. The base will only support Trump.

Edit: I believe we have strayed from the topic of Covid.
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Re: COVID19

Post by flyingember »

grovester wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:27 am
Trump got elected in 2016 due in large part to anti-Hillary sentiment and because voters thought he deserved the chance.
Those voters quickly discovered the error of their ways and voted out the gop in 2018 and Trump specifically in 2020 (I think most people wanted divided government).
These voters are not going back to Trump in 2024. Some other gop candidate? Maybe. But there is the rub. The base will only support Trump.

Edit: I believe we have strayed from the topic of Covid.
Yes, it has but there is a relevant covid point here.

Covid ruined Trump and it was all his fault. He lost too many moderate voters in his efforts.

If he had taken center stage and served as the one singular person leading the efforts, giving stump speeches with how patriots wear masks to save lives. He would have won.

He could have spun up the biggest effort ever to get PPE into hospitals, nursing homes and all the places heavily hit early on. He would have won.

He could have given the biggest most amazing speeches all summer on how the US has already bought hundreds of millions of doses and will immediatelly distribute vaccines as fast as possible with the military distributing a dose to every first responder, every nursing home, every hospital in the country. He would have won.

All he had to do was treat this as the opportunity to be all about himself, about how he is singularly stopping naysayers from stopping the country from beating Covid.
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Re: COVID19

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Of course I wouldn’t count out Trump for 2024. He’ll have a better shot then than he did for 2020. I even predicted that last summer.
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Re: COVID19

Post by Highlander »

grovester wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:27 am
Highlander wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:46 pm
phuqueue wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:01 pm
I would not argue that. The margins were thin in both elections, but they seem to be trending in the same direction as Ohio before them and, well, Missouri before that. Hanging your hat on winning Wisconsin by less than 1%, where the guy you beat was a historically unpopular president in the middle of bungling a pandemic, seems ill-advised to me.


10 years ago, Republicans were only one cycle removed from winning in Ohio (for the second time in a row), Iowa, and Florida (also twice in a row), so I don't know about "pipe dream."
I hate to say it but I would not count Trump out yet in 2024. Biden got elected because a majority of people despised Trump not because he was a particularly strong candidate. It took a massive voter turnout to make that happen.

The Republicans have done what they could since the election to make sure that kind of turnout doesn't happen in the contested states where they have some control. Also, Biden's approval ratings are very poor right now and he's going to need to make a pretty big effort to turn those numbers around. The republicans are going to keep nominating candidates that much of the country finds repugnant (no doubt about that) it's just whether or not the democrats can counter with a credible candidate that can motivate the moderates in both parties and independents to vote their way. Biden is definitely a moderate but he may not be that candidate.
Trump got elected in 2016 due in large part to anti-Hillary sentiment and because voters thought he deserved the chance.
Those voters quickly discovered the error of their ways and voted out the gop in 2018 and Trump specifically in 2020 (I think most people wanted divided government).
These voters are not going back to Trump in 2024. Some other gop candidate? Maybe. But there is the rub. The base will only support Trump.

Edit: I believe we have strayed from the topic of Covid.
I hope you are right. Unfortunately, the anti-turnout legislation in many states would definitely help Trump and Biden's growing unpopularity (although its still early enough in his term to turn it around) may give Trump more than a snowball's chance if he gets the nomination. I've never seen a politician or any public figure embarrass themselves like Trump did in his final year in office and since the election. Many Americans realize the fraud that he is but many also accept his idiocy and think he's exactly what the country needs. While that's a smaller population, they are strategically placed.
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Re: COVID19

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FangKC wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:49 am One of the biggest problems this country faces is the simple fact that Democrats congregate in a few states, and give the GOP uncontested control of too many states and possible electoral votes. This makes it possible for GOP presidential candidates to lose the popular vote, and still win the presidency. In some states, just 50,000 more Democrats living there would block any GOP candidate from winning the electoral votes for that state. It would at least make the state more competitive. This would also benefit the GOP since the more extreme candidates would never have a chance and it would produce more moderation.

https://brilliantmaps.com/2020-county-election-map/

I hope this link works. There are obviously some regional/state trends in US politics but the political divide is as much rural/exurban vs urban as it regional or by state. There a few exceptions like the rural majority black counties of the south being blue but the rural/urban divide holds true for most of the US.
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Re: COVID19

Post by flyingember »

FangKC wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:49 am One of the biggest problems this country faces is the simple fact that Democrats congregate in a few states, and give the GOP uncontested control of too many states and possible electoral votes. This makes it possible for GOP presidential candidates to lose the popular vote, and still win the presidency. In some states, just 50,000 more Democrats living there would block any GOP candidate from winning the electoral votes for that state. It would at least make the state more competitive. This would also benefit the GOP since the more extreme candidates would never have a chance and it would produce more moderation.
It would be remis to think of Covid-created politics as a mirror of today but to look at the impact long term.

Don't think of just the voters who have died.

Think of the next generation of voters. Children suddenly are living with a parent grieving a death. The child no longer has the influence of one parent, maybe both. Maybe the family lost their primary income and the remaining family has to move for a better job elsewhere. Maybe a parent doesn't die but your employer passes and your job is gone.

The impact on children will far outdo the impact on adults. I would expect the biggest change will be an acceleration of people moving from rural to suburban.

This introduces children to a more moderate to liberal environment than they lived in before. If even 1 in 100 children who move don't vote Conservative who likely would have, and I include middle of the road Republicans as a likely alternative, that's just another piece of the election puzzle.

The 2028 election is the first election for a child finishing 5th grade in 2020. We're not that far away from where even low turnout could produce results no one expects.
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Re: COVID19

Post by mean »

flyingember wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:53 am
grovester wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:27 am
Trump got elected in 2016 due in large part to anti-Hillary sentiment and because voters thought he deserved the chance.
Those voters quickly discovered the error of their ways and voted out the gop in 2018 and Trump specifically in 2020 (I think most people wanted divided government).
These voters are not going back to Trump in 2024. Some other gop candidate? Maybe. But there is the rub. The base will only support Trump.

Edit: I believe we have strayed from the topic of Covid.
Yes, it has but there is a relevant covid point here.

Covid ruined Trump and it was all his fault. He lost too many moderate voters in his efforts.

If he had taken center stage and served as the one singular person leading the efforts, giving stump speeches with how patriots wear masks to save lives. He would have won.

He could have spun up the biggest effort ever to get PPE into hospitals, nursing homes and all the places heavily hit early on. He would have won.

He could have given the biggest most amazing speeches all summer on how the US has already bought hundreds of millions of doses and will immediatelly distribute vaccines as fast as possible with the military distributing a dose to every first responder, every nursing home, every hospital in the country. He would have won.

All he had to do was treat this as the opportunity to be all about himself, about how he is singularly stopping naysayers from stopping the country from beating Covid.
I don't know if he would have won, I wonder if that would have maybe been the straw that broke the cultists' back.

Hahaha, just kidding, there is no such straw.
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Re: COVID19

Post by grovester »

I feel the metro has been kind of mediocre honestly, marc says 51.48% vaxxed.

https://marc2.org/covidhub/
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Re: COVID19

Post by grovester »

We look good compared to rural areas, but that's not saying a lot.
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Re: COVID19

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Probably because of mask mandates. In rural areas, people aren't wearing masks at high rates.

My hometown newspaper in rural NW Missouri has numerous photos every week of people doing things in groups, and no one is wearing masks.
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Re: COVID19

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FangKC wrote: Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:50 pm Probably because of mask mandates. In rural areas, people aren't wearing masks at high rates.

My hometown newspaper in rural NW Missouri has numerous photos every week of people doing things in groups, and no one is wearing masks.
You must not get out in the city much either...
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Re: COVID19

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I get your point. However, a good deal of COVID spread is simply being in small spaces with a few people, and only one of them is infected with the virus. Most public places require masks in KCMO. So going to the hair salon or picking up your prescription likely involves you and others wearing masks.

In rural towns with no mask mandates, people were crowded in churches, restaurants at lunch, and visiting in the tiny post office lobby not wearing masks.

The majority of the people I personally know that have gotten COVID are from my rural home county, not the Kansas City Metro. I know three people who got COVID attending funerals in my hometown. I know two other people who have died from COVID and both of them were from my rural home county, not KCMO.

One of my cousins waited tables in a local restaurant in my hometown. She quit working there because none of the customers wore masks and she has underlying health issues. All the people up there know each other intimately so they knew she had underlying health issues and they still refused to wear masks. BTW, the two people I mentioned that died from COVID were among those customers.

COVID-19 death rate in rural America now double that of urban communities

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-d ... mmunities/
Last edited by FangKC on Sat Oct 02, 2021 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID19

Post by phuqueue »

Outdoor activities like sports, outdoor dining and concerts, etc aren't likely to be major spreading events. I haven't been back to KC since the pandemic began, so I don't know what it actually looks like on the ground there (anecdotally, my mom says her church has imposed capacity limits to facilitate distancing, and I know she at least continues to mask up in public spaces, but I don't know if she or her church are outliers in those respects), but higher (even if not great) vax rate + higher (even if not great) mask rate + outdoor rather than indoor activities probably collectively account for much of the difference.
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Re: COVID19

Post by im2kull »

phuqueue wrote: Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:30 am Outdoor activities like sports, outdoor dining and concerts, etc aren't likely to be major spreading events. I haven't been back to KC since the pandemic began, so I don't know what it actually looks like on the ground there (anecdotally, my mom says her church has imposed capacity limits to facilitate distancing, and I know she at least continues to mask up in public spaces, but I don't know if she or her church are outliers in those respects), but higher (even if not great) vax rate + higher (even if not great) mask rate + outdoor rather than indoor activities probably collectively account for much of the difference.
Ya'lls hypocrisy is showing. Just stop.


First Fridays/Arrowhead Concerts/PnL District Events/Crowded Bars/etc,etc -- "Aren't likely to be major spreading events"

vs

Lake of the Ozarks outdoor event - "OMG SO MUCH SUPER SPREADERSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!"
Sturgis motorcycle rally - "OMG HOW DARE THEY GATHER MOTORCYCLISTS IN ONE BIG CITY AND ENJOY WALKING OUTSIDE TOGETHER!!!!!"
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Re: COVID19

Post by phuqueue »

im2kull wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:58 am
phuqueue wrote: Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:30 am Outdoor activities like sports, outdoor dining and concerts, etc aren't likely to be major spreading events. I haven't been back to KC since the pandemic began, so I don't know what it actually looks like on the ground there (anecdotally, my mom says her church has imposed capacity limits to facilitate distancing, and I know she at least continues to mask up in public spaces, but I don't know if she or her church are outliers in those respects), but higher (even if not great) vax rate + higher (even if not great) mask rate + outdoor rather than indoor activities probably collectively account for much of the difference.
Ya'lls hypocrisy is showing. Just stop.


First Fridays/Arrowhead Concerts/PnL District Events/Crowded Bars/etc,etc -- "Aren't likely to be major spreading events"

vs

Lake of the Ozarks outdoor event - "OMG SO MUCH SUPER SPREADERSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!"
Sturgis motorcycle rally - "OMG HOW DARE THEY GATHER MOTORCYCLISTS IN ONE BIG CITY AND ENJOY WALKING OUTSIDE TOGETHER!!!!!"
It's almost like we have learned new information about how the virus spreads, which activities are reasonably safe, and which ones aren't in the more than a year since the Ozarks party and Sturgis made headlines
mean
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Re: COVID19

Post by mean »

There is no such thing as new information, all information is permanently static because science is fake news. I mean, duh.
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Re: COVID19

Post by phuqueue »

I mean, kull seems to be whining about perceived shaming/fearmongering, which did happen last year around the Ozarks party, Sturgis, etc. That article is reporting an actual increase in cases immediately following Sturgis, and I wouldn't characterize that reporting as "hypocritical," since Provincetown was reported on the same way a few months ago. It's also not really right to compare mixed indoor/outdoor events that take place over a number of days, like Sturgis (or Provincetown), to fully outdoor activities that are one-off events, like a baseball or football game or concert, but kull has never really been one for arguing in good faith (see also how he expanded my list of fully outdoor events that are comparatively safe to also include "crowded bars," but it is not worthwhile to dwell on things like this with him).
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