Politics

[Highlander]

Biden showing fairly decent leads in swing/purple states Michigan, Florida and Penn with rightie pollsters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Polls at this point are pretty meaningless. While Trump is doing a good job of sinking himself he also did a pretty good job of sinking himself 4 years ago and still won. For Biden, a guy who comes across as being not mentally alert all of time (as opposed to Trump who comes across as a clown but is revered by his base), his VP selection will be critical to his chances of winning and he has really backed himself into a corner with the statement about picking a woman. Selecting Harris or Warren would essentially eliminate any chance he has of winning. Klobuchar is a little better but I think most Americans will find her too liberal. What Biden absolutely needs is a person that can look like they ready to take control like Cuomo - but that would alienate those would want to hold him to his promise of choosing a woman. Personally, that's who I'd like to see him pick and I think it's by far his best option. Maybe only option. He's not going to lose the support of those who were counting on a woman VP - who are they going to vote for? Trump?

[earthling]

^Yeah have brought up many times polls at best only give an indication of what's on minds at the moment, not a final future indicator or who will show up to vote. And national polls are even more meaningless. But it's still interesting to track trends of the swing states, which is where it matters. Is not very common for rightie pollsters to show a lead for DEMs.

Agree that VP pick shouldn't be Harris or Warren, Biden might lose. Given AZ and FL will be important states for Biden, he may go for a Latina pick...
https://thehill.com/latino/488024-five- ... nning-mate

[FangKC]

According to almost every economist I've read, or heard speak on the topic, there is no time for the economy to recover before the November election. There are more unemployed right now that anytime in US history. I've heard some economists say it will take at least five years to absorb all those unemployed. Many people have seen their retirement funds affected again. Many unemployed can't even register for their unemployment benefits. Trump won on razor thin margins in 2016 in a few swing states. Many who supported him were over 65. Some of those have since died. I don't see where he's won over new voters. In fact, he's made a lot of of voters angry. He is certainly not winning over young people who have turned 18 since 2016.

I don't see how Trump can win again. Republican polling is showing that he's even put four GOP Senate seats in jeopardy -- and maybe more. So the GOP might very well lose the Senate. Mitch McConnell might not ever get re-elected to his Senate seat. He's almost 19 points under in favorable/unfavorable ratings: 27.3 to 45.7. Kentucky also elected a Democrat as governor.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6672.html

[brewcrew1000]

Trump is going to use all of this virus stuff at his Rally's if he has a chance to have any in states with hardly any deaths. He will be like "see I told u it was no big deal" The 3 largest states have less deaths than NYC combined. Florida will be a focal point in this rhetoric.

[FangKC]

Good luck with that. Most polling shows that even a majority of Republicans don't trust Trump on COVID-related information.

[flyingember]

According to almost every economist I've read, or heard speak on the topic, there is no time for the economy to recover before the November election. There are more unemployed right now that anytime in US history. I've heard some economists say it will take at least five years to absorb all those unemployed. Many people have seen their retirement funds affected again. Many unemployed can't even register for their unemployment benefits. Trump won on razor thin margins in 2016 in a few swing states. Many who supported him were over 65. Some of those have since died. I don't see where he's won over new voters. In fact, he's made a lot of of voters angry. He is certainly not winning over young people who have turned 18 since 2016.

I don't see how Trump can win again. Republican polling is showing that he's even put four GOP Senate seats in jeopardy -- and maybe more. So the GOP might very well lose the Senate. Mitch McConnell might not ever get re-elected to his Senate seat. He's almost 19 points under in favorable/unfavorable ratings: 27.3 to 45.7. Kentucky also elected a Democrat as governor.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6672.html

Look at this from a Trump supporter viewpoint

Trump wasn't to blame for the unemployment rate, his policies can help us get back quicker
Trump can help increase the stock market quicker

But...
It will be hard to talk away the idea that republicans have supported the working class when they can't even process unemployment claims. Meanwhile there's companies getting assistance and returning it after Trump refused to have congressional oversight. Millions are seeing that they were laid off and large businesses are improperly getting help before them.

The last time this happened, in 2008, the Democrats came out of the election with a majority in both houses and the presidency
In 2009 universal healthcare was dumbed down and then the republicans spent years saying bad things about the idea

So in 2020 when healthcare became the single most important topic as people lose their jobs, the party has spent years saying people don't need better coverage coming from the government


I would say the single biggest thing that could happen at this point is rural hospitals get overwhelmed. This will put the focus on how the private medical system has failed to be for anything except profits and tell rural voters that we don't just need single payer health insurance, we need nationalized medicine too.

The exodus of people to the cities has delayed the demand for our own NHS as most people move to where there's good hospitals.

[Anthony_Hugo98]

I’ve seen first hand a nationalized system failing and it’s genuinely terrifying. The benefit that many parts of the U.S. have compared to elsewheres In the world is population density, which I feel will keep the rural hospitals from truly becoming overwhelmed.

[kboish]

Rural hospitals? What rural hospitals?

[Highlander]

double post

[flyingember]

Rural hospitals? What rural hospitals?

That's my point. For example, Liberal, KS has 89 hospital beds for a population of 22,000.
The next county west has 17 beds for 5700 people
The county east is 5600 people with 20 beds
The entire Oklohoma Panhandle to the south with 28,000 people has 25 beds.

So for a cluster of 61,300 people, there's possibly only 151 beds, or one per 405 people.

And there's an effective 100% chance that there isn't more than 10% ventilator coverage per bed in all rural Kansas, if that. So that could be 1 ventilator per 4000 people. If we see even a 1% case rate that's 600+ cases for 151 beds and maybe 15 ventilators.

If it gets into industry in places like Liberal with it's meatpacking plant, the case rate and death rate could be higher than cities despite being lower density because there's no place to take care of people who need it.

Stories of supplies being taken from hospital systems will become a big deal. Stories of finding a bed three counties over and they don't have supplies because they're being horded by the federal government under Trump will play into anti-government tendencies. Will disliking big government overrule liking Trump becomes the question.

it's why the shut down is so important for rural areas. The ability to handle a surge is so much lower.

[Critical_Mass]

^and these are not ICU beds

https://khn.org/news/as-coronavirus-spr ... -icu-beds/

[FangKC]

Senator Amy Klobuchar was on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night and she voiced her deep concern about the lack of hospital beds, and ventilators, in rural areas if COVID reaches these areas.

[aknowledgeableperson]

View this. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-reop ... 020-05-03/

[earthling]

Scenarios for Biden to beat Trump, where Trump wins same states as last election with exceptions of...

Biden wins AZ, MI, PA — but loses WI, FL and NC
Biden 279 electoral votes, Trump 259

Biden wins AZ and FL — but loses MI, NC, PA and WI
Biden 272, Trump 266

Biden wins AZ, NC and MI — but loses FL, PA and WI
Biden 274, Trump 264

Biden wins MI, PA and NC — but loses AZ, NH and WI
Biden 279, Trump 259

Seems more likely Biden will get AZ before NC but if Biden gets those Great Lakes states and AZ or NC, he doesn't need FL...

[FangKC]

Polls show Trump is losing support among those over age 65--an important demographic for him to win. That could tip states like Arizona and Florida to Biden.



A lot of Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after the last hurricane. Trump pissed them off with his lack of support for helping them. Those new voters could also bolster Biden's chances. I think a judge ruled recently that felons could regain their voting rights in Florida. Little bit here, little bit there.

[Highlander]

Polls show Trump is losing support among those over age 65--an important demographic for him to win. That could tip states like Arizona and Florida to Biden.



A lot of Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after the last hurricane. Trump pissed them off with his lack of support for helping them. Those new voters could also bolster Biden's chances. I think a judge ruled recently that felons could regain their voting rights in Florida. Little bit here, little bit there.

CV19 is a major problem for Trump. It's driving a wedge between his major support ggroups and it's hard to appease both: Those over 60-65 now fearful of dying from CV19 and want to see that issue addressed aggressively and the more provincial conservatives who see anything restrictive (economic shutdowns, mandatory mask wearing) as ideological freedom issues. The latter will probably always vote conservative but the former group's vote could now be up for grabs.

[FangKC]

Aside from the seniors, there are other core Trump (under 60) supporters who are fearful because they are often among those groups that suffer from diabetes, high blood pressure, kidney disease, obesity, heart disease, and lung problems like emphysema. Some have compromised immune systems from treatments for cancer and other chronic illnesses. These people are the more likely to die from COVID. Many who were strong supporters of Trump have now lost their jobs, and some their insurance. So they know if they get sick and recover, they will be facing huge medical bills.

Trump's numbers began to tumble right around the time he seemed to prioritize the economy over their health and lives. And the cuckoo for Coco Puffs comments on injecting disinfectants into humans as a treatment.

[earthling]

Trump's refusal to wear masks in public (to taunt the media) is only empowering the freedom protesters as well. Given that cheap masks/coverings are more effective at preventing spread than protecting from infection, Trump's stance exemplifies a selfish lack of consideration for others. Countries like Austria, Slovakia, Czechia have proven you can have a reasonable balance - open up economy while *mandating* reasonable precautions. There's a high level of ideology on both sides of fence within US to find a reasonable non-partisan balance but the polarized politicizing of any approach isn't surprising, essentially expected.

Separately, Trump's reluctant/former supporters may not vote for Biden but they may not show up to vote. Trump campaign will certainly press Biden issues to encourage reluctant Biden voters not to show up.

[Highlander]

Separately, Trump's reluctant/former supporters may not vote for Biden but they may not show up to vote. Trump campaign will certainly press Biden issues to encourage reluctant Biden voters not to show up.

My biggest concern is that Biden is an extremely weak candidate. I also think he forced himself into a corner on selecting a VP based on gender. Biden he needs an extremely good VP choice to beat Trump and I do not see that happening with the names being thrown around. I'm very pessimistic about the next four years with Trump at the helm - especially if he has the Senate to enable his corruption.

[earthling]

Am voting for Biden as a Not Trump but am hoping Biden is a delegator and picks a competent cabinet that he listens to. The cabinet he selects may be more important than VP pick.