COVID19

[earthling]

Downplaying the economic/livelihood impact of lockdowns is almost as irresponsible as insisting COVID isn't as dangerous as flu. Each week that goes by digs a deeper hole. Many assume that a hard lockdown is the only way to keep virus in check. Need to find the right balance and part of that is accepting risks while keeping hospital loads manageable. Some drugs are also showing promise now. Fortunately states are starting the planning to return workforce. Unfortunately PPE prices are skyrocketing. The US should get engaged with global hyper mass production of PPEs.

[earthling]

Layoffs and pay cuts are now striking more white collar jobs
https://apnews.com/fb33b19770c945bf19a40456f060e593

[kas1]

Right now we have people making food and critical supplies, and we have people distributing them. If our current economic system can't make this work without killing millions of people then our current economic system isn't worth anything.

[earthling]

Tell that to those not in essential jobs who won't be getting a paycheck. The snowball effect gets worse the longer this lingers.

We can find ways to get many more safely back to work w/out 'killing millions'. Be careful not to assume the *only* way to manage COVID is with a hard lockdown.

[grovester]

Tell that to those not in essential jobs who won't be getting a paycheck. The snowball effect gets worse the longer this lingers.

We can find ways to get many more safely back to work w/out 'killing millions'. Be careful not to assume the *only* way to manage COVID is with a hard lockdown.

We're not in a hard lock down.

"Essential"hass a very broad definition.

Stimulus+unemployment+600/wk.

Nobody wants to fly or stay in a hotel or sit in a restaurant or see a movie, whether there is a lock down in place or not.

The only way people will be convinced is when the science confirms it.

[earthling]

We're in a hard enough lockdown that 22M more are not working, expected to hit at least 25M. It's not just hospitality jobs. And each week that goes by the snowball effect gets worse with a broader range of jobs/industries.

edit: And The Feds said they can handle up to $5T in aid before getting into a dire situation. They are already approaching that.

[kboish]

Yesterday's business session included an update from the city's health director regarding Covid 19. It was very informative and gave me a more positive outlook on our health and safety situation here (economy is a completely different story). Its not posted yet, but should be available here at some point.

Currently expect the peak in KC sometime in two weeks. Current availability of staff beds/ICU should be sufficient to handle surge, meaning there will not be any auxiliary sites opened (convention center, etc). That is a dynamic decision and could change if bed availability plummets. They had a telling graph on that showing how low our capacity was at the beginning of the crisis, the increase in capacity as hospitals freed up space, and an up and down cycle as Covid cases increased (got ill) and subsequently got recovered and were released from hospital. The past few days showed a significant downward trend in bed availability that they hope stabilizes. Availability still remains much higher than back in march (300 or so vs. <70) They currently predict that the area has enough ventilators.

It should be said, all of their predictions are based on stay at home orders through May 15. If things stabilize as they predict, they foresee a "phased" opening where non-essential services can reopen under controlled circumstances. Examples given were 25-50% capacity in restaurants. Appointment only haircut and other types of services. Requiring masks in public ( i think, can't remember on that one). All of that remains TBD based on the data at the time.

Testing is still limited and a problem. PPE acquisition is still a concern. Currently have enough PPE, but uncertainty over filled orders is problematic. They cited problems getting outbid by foreign buyers of domestic production.

[brewcrew1000]

What's the deal with Florida? It sounds like mostly everything is opening back up next week. They were basically the last state to shut down and looks to be one of first to open back up

[grovester]

Yesterday's business session included an update from the city's health director regarding Covid 19. It was very informative and gave me a more positive outlook on our health and safety situation here (economy is a completely different story). Its not posted yet, but should be available here at some point.

Currently expect the peak in KC sometime in two weeks. Current availability of staff beds/ICU should be sufficient to handle surge, meaning there will not be any auxiliary sites opened (convention center, etc). That is a dynamic decision and could change if bed availability plummets. They had a telling graph on that showing how low our capacity was at the beginning of the crisis, the increase in capacity as hospitals freed up space, and an up and down cycle as Covid cases increased (got ill) and subsequently got recovered and were released from hospital. The past few days showed a significant downward trend in bed availability that they hope stabilizes. Availability still remains much higher than back in march (300 or so vs. <70) They currently predict that the area has enough ventilators.

It should be said, all of their predictions are based on stay at home orders through May 15. If things stabilize as they predict, they foresee a "phased" opening where non-essential services can reopen under controlled circumstances. Examples given were 25-50% capacity in restaurants. Appointment only haircut and other types of services. Requiring masks in public ( i think, can't remember on that one). All of that remains TBD based on the data at the time.

Testing is still limited and a problem. PPE acquisition is still a concern. Currently have enough PPE, but uncertainty over filled orders is problematic. They cited problems getting outbid by foreign buyers of domestic production.

^this is how it will happen.

Unfortunately, without testing, there will likely be flare ups that will require backing up into more stringent measures.

It is going to seem very slow coming out and there will be the impulse to do too much.

Starting with May 15, I'd expect 2 weeks minimum on each phase, so earliest of any kind of "normal" would be July 1.

[kboish]

The health director had a suggestion that i LOVED. he said it kind of tongue in cheek, but also seriously. Because businesses are not required to offer sick days to their workers, he suggested that the health department put "Eat/Do business at your own risk" signs on establishments whose workers cannot stay home if they are sick. A sort of public service announcement to customers who may not want to interact with sick workers...and also a sort of public shaming of businesses that do not provide sick leave.

Personally, I think they should do this during even Non-pandemic times. I don't want to eat at a store whose workers could be sick.

[kboish]

Yesterday's business session included an update from the city's health director regarding Covid 19. It was very informative and gave me a more positive outlook on our health and safety situation here (economy is a completely different story). Its not posted yet, but should be available here at some point.

Currently expect the peak in KC sometime in two weeks. Current availability of staff beds/ICU should be sufficient to handle surge, meaning there will not be any auxiliary sites opened (convention center, etc). That is a dynamic decision and could change if bed availability plummets. They had a telling graph on that showing how low our capacity was at the beginning of the crisis, the increase in capacity as hospitals freed up space, and an up and down cycle as Covid cases increased (got ill) and subsequently got recovered and were released from hospital. The past few days showed a significant downward trend in bed availability that they hope stabilizes. Availability still remains much higher than back in march (300 or so vs. <70) They currently predict that the area has enough ventilators.

It should be said, all of their predictions are based on stay at home orders through May 15. If things stabilize as they predict, they foresee a "phased" opening where non-essential services can reopen under controlled circumstances. Examples given were 25-50% capacity in restaurants. Appointment only haircut and other types of services. Requiring masks in public ( i think, can't remember on that one). All of that remains TBD based on the data at the time.

Testing is still limited and a problem. PPE acquisition is still a concern. Currently have enough PPE, but uncertainty over filled orders is problematic. They cited problems getting outbid by foreign buyers of domestic production.

^this is how it will happen.

Unfortunately, without testing, there will likely be flare ups that will require backing up into more stringent measures.

It is going to seem very slow coming out and there will be the impulse to do too much.

Starting with May 15, I'd expect 2 weeks minimum on each phase, so earliest of any kind of "normal" would be July 1.

And he definitely said there would likely be "fits and starts" where it comes back and we go back into "shutdown" mode. This will especially be true without mass testing and the ability to "test and trace" to isolate. Which seems very unlikely for us anytime soon.

He also suggested that there could be an even longer period of time before its "normal" again. Like next year even.

This recently conducted study says about 2-4% of people tested had antibodies for Coranovirus in Santa Clara County. While this suggests a much higher infection rate than currently known in the area, it also shows you that we are NOWHERE CLOSE to so called "herd immunity". This means if we went right back to normal, cases could easily spike and overrun health systems. Herd immunity is not a strategy.

[herrfrank]

What's the deal with Florida? It sounds like mostly everything is opening back up next week. They were basically the last state to shut down and looks to be one of first to open back up

Where are you reading this? Maybe in the panhandle (which is practically a different state). My domicile county, Palm Beach, is definitely still in shutdown mode until May. Masks are required at all open businesses (basically the grocer, Publix, the post office, and a couple of smaller pharmacies), and the town is monitoring the bridges like after a hurricane (non-residents are curfewed). All of the hotels, all shops and almost all restaurants, including the Starbucks, are locked tight. The condo buildings have a no visitors, no guests rule. You can meet neighbors on the sidewalk if you must. Even the bicycle trail is closed (was getting "too crowded.")

If anything, I am shocked at how many people are out and about here in KC -- Ward Parkway on Tuesday 6pm looked like a slightly reduced rush hour. And yesterday S.M Pkwy was also busy, circa 3pm. Tons of contractors in pickups driving around. If this is a "hard shutdown," I don't want to know what a light shutdown is.

[grovester]

Jacksonville, not sure what they're thinking.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/jacks ... index.html

[FangKC]

More people died of COVID-19 on Thursday in the USA than any day since in the first recorded death -- more than the total of deaths from 9-11.

4,600 U.S. coronavirus deaths were recorded Thursday, nearly double Wednesday's record high

"The U.S. recorded 4,591 deaths from the COVID-19 coronavirus in the 24 hours before 8 p.m. Thursday night, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data. That is the most U.S. coronavirus deaths registered in one day. The previous record, 2,569 deaths, was Wednesday."

https://theweek.com/speedreads/909344/4 ... ecord-high

[FangKC]

No public panic reported

Flu Season…Deaths…….Cases….
2019-2020….24,000…39,000,000
2018-2019….34,157…35,520,883
2017-2018….61,099…44,802,629
2016-2017….38,230…29,220,523
2015-2016….22,705…23,504,319
2014-2015….51,376…30,165,452
2013-2014….37,930…29,739,994
2012-2013….42,570…33,679,171
2011-2012….12,447…..9,315,621
2010-2011….36,656…21,286,119

2020 – Flu vaccine only 45% effective in U.S.

I think his point is that we didn't shut down the world over the flu.
This whole thing is turning political now. Protests are planned in Jeff City, KC and Topeka.

Erick Erickson @EWErickson
·
14h
There is a reason we have never shut down for car wrecks, swimming pool deaths, or the flu, but have shut down for this.

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1 ... 85858?s=20

[FangKC]

But what's the end game here? Did the world shut down for the Spanish Flu? News traveled slowed so I doubt it did.
Any kind of outbreak in November and we shut down everything again? A batch of fevers at a school in October and they just cancel the whole year again?
...
We aren't going to get back to normal because most people will be afraid to go out in public.

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Posted: 26 Mar 2020 Last revised: 13 Apr 2020
Sergio Correia

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Stephan Luck

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Emil Verner

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Date Written: March 30, 2020

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm ... id=3561560

[FangKC]

Original: Mar 3, 2020

Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu Was So Deadly

Harris believes that the rapid spread of Spanish flu in the fall of 1918 was at least partially to blame on public health officials unwilling to impose quarantines during wartime.
...
Reported cases of Spanish flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. In retrospect, it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection.
...

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-fl ... resurgence

Original: Mar 11, 2020

How U.S. Cities Tried to Halt the Spread of the 1918 Spanish Flu

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-fl ... nse-cities

My maternal grandmother was a young mother during the Spanish Flu epidemic. She delivered her third child in the fall of 1918 during the worst part. She said that people were terrified during that era--afraid of each other as much as the virus. Every person you encountered was a potential carrier of a virus that could kill you.

She had friends and family drop dead suddenly from it -- some babies and small children. Some were full grown, healthy men. She was very afraid of dying herself, and leaving her children motherless.

Yes, there were economic consequences from the pandemic. She and her husband had to move in with his mother to survive. But they got through it. The country got through it, and that was while a World War was going on.

[mgsports]

Clay and Platte May 15th.

[brewcrew1000]

But what's the end game here? Did the world shut down for the Spanish Flu? News traveled slowed so I doubt it did.
Any kind of outbreak in November and we shut down everything again? A batch of fevers at a school in October and they just cancel the whole year again?
...
We aren't going to get back to normal because most people will be afraid to go out in public.

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Posted: 26 Mar 2020 Last revised: 13 Apr 2020
Sergio Correia

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Stephan Luck

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Emil Verner

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Date Written: March 30, 2020

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm ... id=3561560

How can u compare this 1918 to today? 35% of the people in the US in 1918 were farmers, that number today is less than 1%, u didn't need to really rely on people and u could be self sufficient for many years, they didn't really have "services" like today, our economy now is service based where it has a snowball effect and other jobs rely on other sectors.

I guarantee u 95% of the economy was considered essential in 1918. Clothing apparal manufacturing was the 3rd largest segment of the economy in 1920s, clothing apparal is non existent today. Our "service" based economy today has a ripple effect from one thing to the next. We could just start over and blow this whole thing up, cause we do have a lot of bullshit jobs in the western world these days.

[earthling]

With TX and FL loosening up restrictions will be interesting to see if the deaths per million pops ranking increases relative to states with tighter restrictions. Right now TX is at 16/Million ranking around 39th of all states and FL has 35/M ranking 21st. TX and FL require masks in public in many counties and in certain places but needs to be statewide if not already. Not clear if PPEs mandated for workplaces either. Execution may not be as safe as it could be.

Sort by Deaths/1M Pops...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/