Next Mayor 2019

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alejandro46
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by alejandro46 »

I wrote in Wes Minder for Shields, s/o to the community for the great idea :D

I will vote for Joliee in the general. I think she can build consensus between developers, neighborhoods and city government on downtown issues as well as continue the city's success and spread it to the east side.
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normalthings
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by normalthings »

alejandro46 wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:48 pm I wrote in Wes Minder for Shields, s/o to the community for the great idea :D

I will vote for Joliee in the general. I think she can build consensus between developers, neighborhoods and city government on downtown issues as well as continue the city's success and spread it to the east side.
Would he be able to replace Fowler after his last term? (Or does he live in a different district)
flyingember
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by flyingember »

normalthings wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:54 pm
alejandro46 wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:48 pm I wrote in Wes Minder for Shields, s/o to the community for the great idea :D
Would he be able to replace Fowler after his last term? (Or does he live in a different district)
He could. I don’t like posting addresses but he’s far enough north he’s not going to be changing districts anytime soon.

The next council elections are in 2023. Redistricting will be in 2021.

This is going to be a big deal for KC. Whoever gets elected is likely going to oversea a dramatic political shift in KC in terms of districts. The in district seats will change a lot. Think about how much population growth downtown had had in the past ten years.
johnmatrix
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by johnmatrix »

Last night was good. Shields won and that idiotic sales tax failed.

Would have been better had Justus lost.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by flyingember »

So the northland has approx 38-40% of the city population. Northland turnout was 28% of the voters in this election.
12999 north, 33320 south.

If we go by district, we would assume each district has approx 16% of the city population, skewing a little higher to 1st, 2nd, 4th from population trends.

Percent of overall turnout
1st: 12.1%.
2nd: 14%.
3rd: 13.8%
4th: 17.3%
5th: 18.3%
6th: 24.1%

So in this election the south side of the city was the deciding factor with the 5th and 6th making up 42% of the voters despite making up only about 30-32% of the population.

Turnout differences probably wasn't enough to swing the mayoral results but could have been the difference in a few second place results. The difference between second and third place was 426 votes for 5th at large. Dickenson lost the primary by 426 but won in Clay by 1500. Bumping to 16% of overall turnout in the 1st district because of any competitive seat would have been 7500 voters, or 1800 more. It's likely this would have changed the results of the 5th at large seat.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by KCPowercat »

johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:43 am Last night was good. Shields won and that idiotic sales tax failed.

Would have been better had Justus lost.
I'll bite. Why shields?
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by flyingember »

Interesting on those numbers

Only 46319 people voted for in district seats total but 48341 voted in the largest turnout, the 4th district at large seat. So 9.5% of voters didn't vote for someone in their own district.
The skew from smallest turnout for a seat, 1st at large and the largest, 4th at large, was 6508 voters. That means 13% of the electorate just didn't bother to vote for someone running unopposed.

It looks like this was largely up north. In Clay 7919 people voted for an in district seat. The mayor had 11,050 votes in Clay. So over 3100 people didn't vote for either seat. That's about 28% of the total voters in the county.

Clay is about 70% 1st district so that means about 2170 people purposefully didn't vote for Hall, or 27% of her possible votes. That's a huge number of missing votes. She ran unopposed and a lot of people showed their displeasure at this.

These numbers shows there's thousands of missing voters for the mayor who aren't showing up because of unopposed seats. Wagner or Miller maybe could have made it into the top two if every seat had been highly competitive. Mayoral candidates clearly have it in their interest to find 12 council candidates to run on a similar platform in the future and turn localized turnout into wins.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by johnmatrix »

KCPowercat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:24 am
johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:43 am Last night was good. Shields won and that idiotic sales tax failed.

Would have been better had Justus lost.
I'll bite. Why shields?
Known her since college days. Did alot of work together for John Kerry.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by kboish »

KCUR just said 14k voted in Northland and 40k voted South of the river for Mayor.
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WSPanic
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by WSPanic »

Huh. The KCEB still has the total around 40K votes in all. 54K would be 25% of registered KCMO voters - which (sadly) seems pretty good for a municipal primary.
flyingember
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by flyingember »

kboish wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:30 am KCUR just said 14k voted in Northland and 40k voted South of the river for Mayor.
For south, 39735 out of 40180 votes total south

Council turnout was dramatically lower than mayor from my previous posts
flyingember
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by flyingember »

johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:28 am
KCPowercat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:24 am
johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:43 am Last night was good. Shields won and that idiotic sales tax failed.

Would have been better had Justus lost.
I'll bite. Why shields?
Known her since college days. Did alot of work together for John Kerry.
That still doesn't say why. John Kerry was secretary of state which is 4th in line to the presidency. Senator for 18 years and a presidential candidate. If she was associated with him to the point the association actually is something more than running a local office with a few unpaid volunteers that means she's highly successful and capable of running the city.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by KCPowercat »

johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:28 am
KCPowercat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:24 am
johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:43 am Last night was good. Shields won and that idiotic sales tax failed.

Would have been better had Justus lost.
I'll bite. Why shields?
Known her since college days. Did alot of work together for John Kerry.
I wouldn't vote for any of my college friends to run my city. Quite a reason.
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chaglang
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by chaglang »

I know a few people who have been friendly with her for decades and are having a hard time with her performance this council term. The changes in the city in the last 5-10 years seem to have opened quite a generational divide.
johnmatrix
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by johnmatrix »

KCPowercat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:22 pm
johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:28 am
KCPowercat wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:24 am

I'll bite. Why shields?
Known her since college days. Did alot of work together for John Kerry.
I wouldn't vote for any of my college friends to run my city. Quite a reason.
She's not a college friend. She did a great job helping the Kerry campaign in KC. She's always shown leadership unlike most of the KC city council. I get it you guys don't like her because you love corporate pigouts.
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WSPanic
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by WSPanic »

Oh FFS.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by johnmatrix »

WSPanic wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:31 pmOh FFS.
The federal government literally sued the KC government over the sewer systems. Basic services in this town are a complete failure. You all are going to be embarrassed to read your own posts once the development bubble pops.
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by KCPowercat »

Shields is the definition of being in big business back pocket.

Amazingly shields bares no responsibility for sewer or other basically service failures despite her numerous runs on the council. Lol dude.
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WSPanic
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by WSPanic »

johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:54 pm
WSPanic wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:31 pmOh FFS.
The federal government literally sued the KC government over the sewer systems. Basic services in this town are a complete failure. You all are going to be embarrassed to read your own posts once the development bubble pops.
No I won't. Because I don't come here to say embarrassing shit. I don't consider politics to be a dick measuring contest where someone has to be right and someone has to be embarrassed. I've been wrong plenty of times in the past and I'll be wrong plenty of times in the future. What I WON"T be is huge, gaping, festering pile of puss that only does drive by trolling and offers nothing to the conversation except "this board sucks" and "you guys are all stupid" and "I'm the only adult in the room". We'll leave that shit to you.
johnmatrix
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Re: Next Mayor 2019

Post by johnmatrix »

WSPanic wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 3:20 pm
johnmatrix wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:54 pm
WSPanic wrote: Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:31 pmOh FFS.
The federal government literally sued the KC government over the sewer systems. Basic services in this town are a complete failure. You all are going to be embarrassed to read your own posts once the development bubble pops.
No I won't. Because I don't come here to say embarrassing shit. I don't consider politics to be a dick measuring contest where someone has to be right and someone has to be embarrassed. I've been wrong plenty of times in the past and I'll be wrong plenty of times in the future. What I WON"T be is huge, gaping, festering pile of puss that only does drive by trolling and offers nothing to the conversation except "this board sucks" and "you guys are all stupid" and "I'm the only adult in the room". We'll leave that shit to you.
No drive by trolling here. You dodge debate and add snude comments I am trying to offer a different point of view.
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