Official: KCMO Light Rail

[DaveKCMO]

I think one of the need issues that needs to be considered relates to the increasing cost of energy.  The world is a lot different than what it was in before 2001.  The fact that this issue is not clearly reflected in the purpose and need statements is a concern to me.

did you submit these comments?

[K.C.Highrise]

News flash, The world is running out of cheap oil! $4 gas is only the beginning. We need need to start transitioning off of oil. The sooner we do this the less painful it will be. If you don't believe me wait five years...

[aknowledgeableperson]

Not saying you are wrong but people predicted dire consequences if gas reached $1/gallon.  And bread hitting $1/loaf.  At the same time people pay far more than $4/gallon for bottled water.  And a cup of Starbucks is how much if priced by the gallon?

Yes, during the short-term society will have problems adjusting to spikes in energy costs but for the long term society does adjust incorporates those costs and changes into its lifestyle.  What will society be like in five years nobody knows.  It will probably be different than it is today.  But I doubt that all of these vehicles will be left empty by the roadside or have road warriors cruising the roadways looking for fuel like in the Mad Max movies.

[cdm2p]

Still - energy issues should be part of the discussion.

[KCFutbol]

Not saying you are wrong but people predicted dire consequences if gas reached $1/gallon.  And bread hitting $1/loaf.  At the same time people pay far more than $4/gallon for bottled water.  And a cup of Starbucks is how much if priced by the gallon?

And the solution for my contact lenses is over $200/gallon. What does that have to do with the price of gasoline? 

[KCMax]

I think he's saying I need to ditch my idea of building a car that runs on Starbucks coffee.

[LenexatoKCMO]

I think he's saying I need to ditch my idea of building a car that runs on Starbucks coffee.

Hey as many calories as are in those starbucks drinks - it could be a serious energy source. 

[kcjak]

I'm not trying to predict doom and gloom here, but the cost of oil/energy effects a lot of what we do/buy. High oil has resulted in more farmers growing corn for ethanol. As a result, there is less farmland for wheat and other crops (my relatives farm), which makes bread and feed grain for livestock more expensive. Then meat and milk cost more.  In addition, packaging and transportation costs go up.
Mass transit/light rail is a great way to start getting people involved in depending on oil and I hope to participate in the planning workshops in the near future.

[shinatoo]

Bottled water varies between $1.00 a gallon (bulk like gasoline) and $10 as gallon in single severing sizes.

Tap water comes in much lower but is already being rationed in the southeast and southwest, which makes me wonder why a car that runs on water is a good idea?

[Highlander]

Not saying you are wrong but people predicted dire consequences if gas reached $1/gallon.  And bread hitting $1/loaf.  At the same time people pay far more than $4/gallon for bottled water.  And a cup of Starbucks is how much if priced by the gallon?

Yes, during the short-term society will have problems adjusting to spikes in energy costs but for the long term society does adjust incorporates those costs and changes into its lifestyle.  What will society be like in five years nobody knows.  It will probably be different than it is today.  But I doubt that all of these vehicles will be left empty by the roadside or have road warriors cruising the roadways looking for fuel like in the Mad Max movies.

And why shouldn't those changes in lifestyle incorporate riding public transportation.  My views of the future are not as rosy as yours.  That's because energy efficieny=wealth and oil is an incredibly efficient energy source.  In fact, nothing on the planet save nuclear comes close to equaling it.  When we start to switch to less efficient energy sources such as wind, solar, biofuels (incredibly inefficient), then we will also have to expend X amount of our wealth to make up for the lack of efficiency these sources bring to the table. 

We can impose a lot of stop-gap measures like fuel efficiency standards for cars, hybrids etc... but, unfortunately, the US increasingly is not the only thing controlling the market.  Not only would those measures only slow our growing consumption but third world countries are doing all they can to switch to oil economies themselves.  The inexorable connection between western wealth and oil economies is not all that difficult to see.  Third world countries see it and they want their share and are taking the steps to get out and reserve for themselves what they can of the world's remaining oil supply.  Consequently, I do not see how oil production is ever going to keep pace with demand until the price just becomes too high for the average person to afford.  Expect oil prices to rise dynamically and outpace inflation.   

[bbqboy]

And why shouldn't those changes in lifestyle incorporate riding public transportation.  My views of the future are not as rosy as yours.  That's because energy efficieny=wealth and oil is an incredibly efficient energy source.  In fact, nothing on the planet save nuclear comes close to equaling it.  When we start to switch to less efficient energy sources such as wind, solar, biofuels (incredibly inefficient), then we will also have to expend X amount of our wealth to make up for the lack of efficiency these sources bring to the table. 

We can impose a lot of stop-gap measures like fuel efficiency standards for cars, hybrids etc... but, unfortunately, the US increasingly is not the only thing controlling the market.  Not only would those measures only slow our growing consumption but third world countries are doing all they can to switch to oil economies themselves.  The inexorable connection between western wealth and oil economies is not all that difficult to see.  Third world countries see it and they want their share and are taking the steps to get out and reserve for themselves what they can of the world's remaining oil supply for themselves.  Consequently, I do not see how oil production is ever going to keep pace with demand until the price just becomes too high for the average person to afford.  Expect oil prices to rise dynamically and outpace inflation.   

It is freaking amazing that our President cannot articulate your cogent points. Scary stuff.

[LenexatoKCMO]

We can impose a lot of stop-gap measures like fuel efficiency standards for cars, hybrids etc... but, unfortunately, the US increasingly is not the only thing controlling the market.  Not only would those measures only slow our growing consumption but third world countries are doing all they can to switch to oil economies themselves.  The inexorable connection between western wealth and oil economies is not all that difficult to see.  Third world countries see it and they want their share and are taking the steps to get out and reserve for themselves what they can of the world's remaining oil supply for themselves.  Consequently, I do not see how oil production is ever going to keep pace with demand until the price just becomes too high for the average person to afford.  Expect oil prices to rise dynamically and outpace inflation.   

Correct me if I am wrong but has your tone changed?  I always thought you had a much rosier outlook on the petro-economy and long term supply.

[Highlander]

Correct me if I am wrong but has your tone changed?  I always thought you had a much rosier outlook on the petro-economy and long term supply.

I've had issues with long-term supplies for some time now.  The issue for me is timing and the way in which oil depletion will manifest itself.  I've always disagreed with peak oil people on those two issues and probably still do.  As oil prices rise, it makes economically challenged plays like heavy oil become more economical and that extends the production plateaus out another decade or more.  But these are not simple or cheap and will always need prices in the 80-100 barrel range at a minimum.  They take a huge amount of water and in places they even require subsidies.  You won't see record profits at oil companies when most of their production has shifted away from conventional oil to more challenged types of production (which is going on now).  ExxonMobil, for instance, even now is having a tough time maintaining their own production levels. 

The other big issue is the decline of international oil companies and rise of the National Oil Companies.  That will impact the price Americans pay for gasoline also because national oil companies are not in the market of selling oil, they are in the market of acquiring it for home use and they can out compete western companies all over the globe because they are not capital constrained (they do not care if they lose money on a project, they are entirely subsidized).  And as I said before, these countries want the same kind of wealth from the utilization of oil that they have seen us enjoy.  So, demand is the other wildcard and I do not see it doing anything but going up.   

And obviously, I do not think we will ever be able to fully replace oil as an energy source.  The world has boomed in the oil era both in terms of wealth and population.  Any less efficient energy source, clean as it might be, is going to have profound impacts on available wealth, particularly in societies like ours, and on the overall ability of the planet to support the population it has.  I think this is a far more immediate problem than global warming.  It's also a relevant discussion here in the light rail section because public transportation is one big thing that we can do to lessen the impact of these inevitable scenarios.  Not only does it provide an alternative to the car, it serves as a catalyst for building denser more efficient cities.  The whole thing seems lost on midwesterners though.       

[LenexatoKCMO]

It doesn't seem like much of anyone these days denies that prices are inevitably headed up.  I guess the big question is when/if will the increases start happening on an exponential scale.  When is the summer going to roll around where gas is $2 higher than it was the year before, instead of "just" $.50 higher? 

[K.C.Highrise]

I think the one question that needs answering is, "how much are people willing to pay for 1 gallon of gas?" Until we start to see a huge shift into plug in hybrids, and the demand for oil starts to decline, the price of oil will continue to go up. I think $7-8 in the US is entirely probable, before we see this transition. Shameless plug.........Why don't we put this discussion in my, "The End of Oil" thread?

[DaveKCMO]

Why don't we put this discussion in my, "The End of Oil" thread?

yes, thank you. i'll do my part: http://forum.kcrag.com/index.php?topic=12306.0.

[aknowledgeableperson]

And the solution for my contact lenses is over $200/gallon. What does that have to do with the price of gasoline? 

Read the 2nd paragraph and it might just make some sense to you.

In the long term people adjust to prices.  Compared to the 70's the price of gas went up and what did people do?  Buy vehicles that used more gas, and drove more miles.  Prices of natural gas and heating oil increase and they build and buy bigger houses.  What people will have a tougher time of adjusting to would be is shortage of supplies.  But even then over time people will adjust.  As an example I will use the rationing that occurred during WW II.  Did Americans stop living?  No.  Adjustments were made a life did go on.  Was life different?  Yes, but people still found a way to survive and move on.

[cdm2p]

People do adjust and move on when there are no options. I think the potential of an energy crisis gives us the opportunity to look at transportation alternatives that will provide options and not have the impact that cheap gasoline has on settlement and urbanization patterns.
From a political stanpoint, I would definetely play up the cost of gas issue as a selling point for light rail or improved transit.  Ignoring energy is like burying your head in the sand.

[warwickland]

you guys are confusing my thread!

[Highlander]

you guys are confusing my thread!

Sorry about that.  The philosophy behind the need for light rail is certainly relevant but perhaps this thread should deal primarily with the actual process of approving, building and operating light rail in KC.