KCRag Forum

Blunt isn’t running again. Who will run to replace him? Lucas?

Josh Hawley up in 2025 as well. D bench is very slim.

Jason Kander (update, he tweeted he doesn't want the job, not surprising)
Nicole Galloway (probably not)
Claire McCaskell (also probably not)
Lucas although not sure he has much appeal/name recognition statewide.

Blunt is a meh politician. Better than golden boy ladder climber Hawley.

Seems relevant, given what happened with Georgia's Senate seats: https://www.thepitchkc.com/new-missouri ... itiatives/

alejandro46 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:01 am Josh Hawley up in 2025 as well. D bench is very slim.

Jason Kander (update, he tweeted he doesn't want the job, not surprising)
Nicole Galloway (probably not)
Claire McCaskell (also probably not)
Lucas although not sure he has much appeal/name recognition statewide.

Blunt is a meh politician. Better than golden boy ladder climber Hawley.

R: Graves. Would be very surprised if he didn't.

Good opportunity for Jolie to get back into politics. She understands urban issues but her background and experience in Jeff City give her a strong understanding of what makes rural Missourians tick. She can speak the language of southwest Missouri.

alejandro46 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:01 am
Lucas although not sure he has much appeal/name recognition statewide.

Lucas has been campaigning for candidates on the other side of the state already. Senate is a big first step but seems like hes already tried to set himself up for it.

I could see Eric Greitens running for this. He’s been openly considering the idea.

On the Democrat side, former State Senator Scott Sifton (1st District) is running.

Claire McCaskill has said she will not run. Same with Jason Kander. Both tweeted about it. Claire doesn’t want to be in national politics again. Kander wants to focus on the Veterans Community Project.

Personally, it would be a mistake for Nicole Galloway to run because she just got trounced in the Governor’s election. And considering she is up for re-election as auditor in 2022, I doubt she’ll run for senator.

Short of a Alabama type situation, no D has a chance at that seat.

On the Republican side, Sam Graves is likely to get in the race. I can also see current office-holders Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Attorney General Eric Schmitt running in the primary.

The Democrats do have a weak bench. Mayor Lucas, Jolie Justus and Emanuel Cleaver: I don't think any of them would win a state-wide race against a Republican. Jason Kander is the only Democrat I think could win the seat, and he appears uninterested. For a Democrat to win that seat, they have to have some zest, and Kander is the only one with any imo. That said, because of Kander's battle with PTSD and depression, GOP political consultant Jeff Roe would run ads questioning Kander's mental fitness for the office. He would play dirty. You know he would. Would it work? I can't say.

Has Sly weighed in?

He'd be a much better candidate than Lucas.

Only chance is to mobilize the urban vote like crazy and hope the R's nominate a kook.

Sly would be a better candidate than Lucas. Would he win the race? I don't know.

FangKC wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:48 pm Sly would be a better candidate than Lucas. Would he win the race? I don't know.

Their gun views would end both their chances.

flyingember wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:52 pm

FangKC wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:48 pm Sly would be a better candidate than Lucas. Would he win the race? I don't know.

Their gun views would end both their chances.

I'm sure they said the same about Warnock and Ossoff.

Plenty of time for nuance.

And plenty of time to register more voters in KC and STL. Keep in mind the turnout in these places is very low!

DaveKCMO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:30 pm And plenty of time to register more voters in KC and STL. Keep in mind the turnout in these places is very low!

This

today they would lose.

With a voter registration effort, I wouldn't argue against either being a viable candidate.

I think Sly would be a good candidate. Hes charismatic and I think he can connect with a wide variety of the population. Run from a pro business and moderate campaign. Push like hell to nominate more inner city and suburban turnout.

Lucas is considering a Sentate run.

I could also see 2nd Congressional District Congresswoman Ann Wagner (R) running for Senate. The redistricting process will probably mean the second district will become lean Democratic instead of lean Republican. That's suburban St. Louis and she was elected with a wider margin this time around (2020: Wagner: 52% vs Schupp: 45.5%, +6.5 Wagner) than in 2018 (Wagner: 51.2% vs VanOstran 47.2, +4 Wagner).

Regarding Lucas's chances, I say he has a less chance at winning than Galloway. The State has been trending somewhat more right in recent elections. Galloway is the only Democrat to hold statewide elected office and can play the "moderate" card better than Lucas. She also has the benefit of having a campaign war chest leftover from the 2020 Governor's race. She also has the statewide name recognition that Lucas does not.

Regarding a register to vote push in the urban areas, I still think it will fall short here. It was successful in Georgia because the Atlanta Metro area is far larger (6,020,864 people) than the Missouri side of the St. Louis and Kansas City Metropolitan areas (and these two area's Metro Area numbers on both sides of the state lines total 4,950,995 people). Missouri could get more purple as a result, but it'll still elect a Republican unless the Democratic candidate is willing to spend a huge amount of money and attempt to paint himself/herself as moderate. Warnock and Osoff had the benefit of two unpopular Republican candidates.

If Democrats want a chance, their best bet is Eric Greitens being the Republican nominee. In my view, any candidate other than him will beat the Democratic candidate by at least 7 points.

Scott Sifton just announced his run. NFC who he is.

shinatoo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:37 pm Scott Sifton just announced his run. NFC who he is.

Former 1st District State Senator from St. Louis County.