2022 Senate Race

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FangKC
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by FangKC »

The people most likely to get elected senator in Missouri have to be able to win voters in the rural areas. The last three elected senators from Missouri were all from places not St. Louis and Kansas City. Hawley grew up in Lexington; Blunt is from Springfield; and McCaskill was born in Rolla, spent her early childhood in Houston, later moving to Lebanon, and eventually Columbia. As an adult, she lived in Kansas City, then Kirkwood near St. Louis. However, McCaskill ran as a small-town girl turned crime-fighter prosecutor.

The reason I point this out is that registered rural voters tend to always turn out, whereas urban voters don't always. Rural voters tend to be older voters as well.

Chris Stritzel
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Chris Stritzel »

Lucas Kunce, a veteran, has launched his campaign after setting up an exploratory committee in January.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/lucaskuncemo
Website: https://lucaskunce.com

On the Republican side, Jay Ashcroft is expected to launch his bid soon. Eric Schmitt and Jason Smith are also considering it. Let's not forget Greitens.
https://twitter.com/RealDylanMO/status/ ... 6758880257

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FangKC
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by FangKC »

Roy Blunt is out. So who’s in? A list of possible Missouri GOP senate candidates

https://missouriindependent.com/2021/03 ... andidates/

alejandro46
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by alejandro46 »

Ugh this whole thing is terrible. We are going to go from a moderately Trumpy R to a very Trumpy R (Greitens, Ashcroft or Schmidt.) Combined with Hawley our politicans are shifting farther and farther to the right while some other traditional Republican states like TX, GA, AZ are moving more towards the center as the GOP sheds support from suburban voters and continues to lose overwhelming with young and minority voters.

flyingember
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by flyingember »

The 2031 redistricting will be the start of a shift away from rural power. 2041 will be even bigger.

Blunt won a plurality in 2016 (78k votes) and Hawley won a majority in 2018 (140k votes)

Kander won a majority in Clay County in 2016 and McCaskell won a plurality in 2018

Rural areas are shrinking, from Bush to Trump they shifted down by 2% of the population but they're aging. So it's going to accelerate. Over 65 went up by 3% in the same year so this shows us younger people are moving away and having kids in suburban areas.

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... mmunities/
there's a nice map showing what is suburban vs rural

Immigrants have made up the majority of population growth since 1965
The majority of rural counties have fewer people in 2016 than 2000

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo ... rs-to-come
This estimates the number of retirees peaks in 2023. So each year the number over age 65 will decline a little on the average

Today the youngest baby boomer is age 56. From 55 and 65 1 million will pass and another 1 million will pass each year by 70, each and every year in total. This is reoccuring every year where the number from 55 to 65 adds up to 1 million.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... milli.html

The last baby boomer turns 65 in 2029. By 2031 about 10 million people or about 15% of boomers will have passed.


https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/registeredvoters/2020
here's registered voter numbers

If we take away 100% of voters from the 15% of boomers who pass by 2030 from the 18% of the population in counties excluding the 12 biggest

In the next ten years there would be a decline in ~46,000 rural voters or 1% of the electorate. To be replaced with mostly suburban and urban voters. It won't double the Democrat vote but based on demographic trend there will be more Democrats in 2030 than today

There's a lot of elections where 1 percent can turn elections at the state house level.

edit: fix a logic error

Chris Stritzel
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Chris Stritzel »

Ashcroft declined to run.

Schmitt is reportedly in.

Chris Stritzel
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Chris Stritzel »

Greitens is in

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Anthony_Hugo98
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by Anthony_Hugo98 »

What’s the likelihood Lucas runs? I’d be thrilled if he did, as it would allow us to get a pro development mayor in :lol:
For all my military brothers and sisters out there, thanks for paving the way, ill do my best! AIRBORNE!

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smh
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Re: 2022 Senate Race

Post by smh »

Anthony_Hugo98 wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:44 am
What’s the likelihood Lucas runs? I’d be thrilled if he did, as it would allow us to get a pro development mayor in :lol:
zero

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