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Re: COVID19

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:16 pm
by DaveKCMO
KCATA making our own masks for bus operators: https://twitter.com/RideKCTransit/statu ... 1854544897

Re: COVID19

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:19 pm
by brewcrew1000
earthling wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:08 pm
Markets and industries expected to be economically impacted most by COVID.

KC and STL expected to be hit harder than places like MSP and upper Atlantic. Apparently because of ties to transportation. No surprise to see Vegas and Orlando among hardest to be hit.
I could see a sort of Exodus in Vegas (moving to Phoenix) and Orlando (moving to Atlanta or other parts of Florida). Most of those jobs already paid nothing to begin with, lots of people were struggling to make ends meet.
No surprise to see MSP unfazed by this, they practically have a recession proof economy and probably the most well rounded in the entire US, I could see it actually growing cause of companies like General Mills, Hormel, Cargill and 3M all have HQ in the region and people sticking to familiar Staples for food or doing there part to help out with virus (3M).

Re: COVID19

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:26 pm
by brewcrew1000
Louisiana is an interesting case, 65 dead, highest growth rate in the world. The hot theory goes out the window

Re: COVID19

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:45 pm
by FangKC
Public health experts are really worried about New Orleans because of Mardi Gras.

New Orleans is a center of coronavirus. Mardi Gras could be to blame, doctors say.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ne ... s-n1167741

Re: COVID19

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:13 pm
by earthling
Even if say 25% of 1st World countries manage to contain, can they open borders when rest of planet hasn't contained? China tried and getting re-entry of cases. Same can be said for US with each state managing differently. Even if we close borders between states (or regions) and stop domestic flights, perhaps no one state/region can open borders back up to other states until essentially all of them contain. And even if that's pulled off, it will still exist elsewhere finding it's way back into US. The planet might be fucked until there is a vaccine or a weaker strain of virus takes over or most of us get it. (Or ignore as Sweden is essentially doing)

Attempting to slow down is reasonable/doable and we need to find creative ways to bring back workforce whether it involves body suits, something like motorcycle helmets or pushing for hyper mass production of N95 masks in the 100s of millions. If Apple suppliers can produce mass quantities of complex phones involving many many suppliers, the planet should be able to pull off producing relatively more simplistic N95 class masks in the 100s of millions per per week.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:24 am
by kas1
Social distancing is working:

Image


https://healthweather.us/

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 am
by earthling
^Would be great if true but is 2% good enough? We can still come up with new distancing/safety techniques like N95 class masks/goggles for all that could allow workforce to return with other measures, roles that can't work from home. A better balance than just throwing the workforce back like Trump wants to do.

BTW, unemployment claims rose about 3.3M in just the last week, way above 2.5M forecasted. Hopefully that's a peak but is expected to just be the start.

Image

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 am
by kas1
I probably shouldn't have said that it's working. I should have said that it's showing results. The initial drop would be from a reduction in flu (since it has a much shorter incubation period) but it should be followed by a slowdown in new coronavirus cases in places that shut down early. California looks pristine on all of their maps.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:13 am
by bobbyhawks
One hopes that if heat and humidity does have a significant impact, New Orleans will actually show it quite clearly within a few weeks. Mardi Gras being just a month ago was (hopefully) a/the cause of the initial spike, but weather in NO hasn't been above 85 degrees until this Monday (23rd). My only fear is that dumb Americans in every declining numbers circumstance are going to be cavalier after one or two reports come out (we've already seen it happen). I have very little faith that the Cheeto will be able to resist giving people "good news," either about Easter or maybe even the 4th of July, and we will see another surge like we are in now. I'm just waiting for the report about the first few instances at Liberty University.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:45 am
by kas1
Heat and humidity appear to have only a modest effect at best. Some warm places have been doing okay so far, but Sao Paulo and Guayaquil are both experiencing major outbreaks.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:10 pm
by dukuboy1
Social Distancing is working but the world can not be shut off forever. We can slow the spread but the virus is in every community of the globe (minus Antarctica). What these lock down/stay at home really do is slow or suppress the spread, not stop it. It also has the effect of giving the scientific & healthcare communities time to gather data & come up with better solutions and treatment short term until a vaccine is ready.

I'd really like to know how many people have been tested instead of just the positive cases. What is the infection rate? Only testing people who are showing signs would seem to mean a high level of infection rate. Do we know if it infects 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000? Do we have an understanding of the control, those who have been tested and did not have the virus. Plus I assume with more testing we get more people with it but more recoveries as well. Especially those with mild symptoms who got a test as precaution, tested positive but recover in isolation at home with standard meds. I've read more of those cases lately, especially with celebs making the news with the milder infections. How are those counted in the overall numbers? These are the things I wonder about as we never hear about those numbers, only the doom & gloom and tragic stories. I know the news runs on the old adage of "if it bleeds it leads" but I think we need to know about the progress, to let us know what we are doing is working, even if that is at the beginning stages. People want to know if their actions are having an impact. If we don't see that people will start to say F--k It and we lose the traction we have gained.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
by kas1
dukuboy1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:10 pm
I'd really like to know how many people have been tested instead of just the positive cases.
https://covidtracking.com/data/

Note the some states -- eg, Missouri -- have incomplete data for the negative results.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:02 pm
by grovester
dukuboy1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:10 pm
Social Distancing is working but the world can not be shut off forever. We can slow the spread but the virus is in every community of the globe (minus Antarctica). What these lock down/stay at home really do is slow or suppress the spread, not stop it. It also has the effect of giving the scientific & healthcare communities time to gather data & come up with better solutions and treatment short term until a vaccine is ready.

I'd really like to know how many people have been tested instead of just the positive cases. What is the infection rate? Only testing people who are showing signs would seem to mean a high level of infection rate. Do we know if it infects 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000? Do we have an understanding of the control, those who have been tested and did not have the virus. Plus I assume with more testing we get more people with it but more recoveries as well. Especially those with mild symptoms who got a test as precaution, tested positive but recover in isolation at home with standard meds. I've read more of those cases lately, especially with celebs making the news with the milder infections. How are those counted in the overall numbers? These are the things I wonder about as we never hear about those numbers, only the doom & gloom and tragic stories. I know the news runs on the old adage of "if it bleeds it leads" but I think we need to know about the progress, to let us know what we are doing is working, even if that is at the beginning stages. People want to know if their actions are having an impact. If we don't see that people will start to say F--k It and we lose the traction we have gained.
We won't know without massive amounts of testing.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:35 am
by earthling
bobbyhawks wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:13 am
One hopes that if heat and humidity does have a significant impact, New Orleans will actually show it quite clearly within a few weeks.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you sort by deaths on this chart it looks like Florida and Texas have lower death counts relative to their size. Warm weather might be a smallish factor but Brazil and Indonesia have outbreaks with summer conditions.

Philippines seemed to be under control but now has an outbreak despite temps in the mid-90s...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ilippines/

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:54 am
by herrfrank
I am disappointed at the state-wide data available for geotracking of the Coronavirus. It's far too general. 60 cases in Jackson County; 80 in Johnson County -- too vague. I want to know the census tract data for the residence of those who are sick. Not where they were tested, but where they reside. Is there a cluster in Brookside or in Westport? In Lenexa or in Fairway?

Specifics like this will help the rest of us determine where we do the limited things (groceries, gasoline, pharmacy visits) that we still have to do while minimizing risk.

Rant over.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:40 am
by flyingember
The network effect and spread rate makes that data irrelevant at this point. Once they've found a case in the urban county it's already at the level that anyone within the county needs to be aware

Take your idea and someone who is sick lives in Brookside. They went to the grocery store off 63rd a few days before feeling bad.

They indirectly interact with 50 other people. Some of the staff gets to work by bus and could spread the sickness on the 63 bus which connects to five other busses.
One person who shopped there went to CVS, another went to work at The Target at Ward Parkway, another went to Home Depot. One of the secondary people visited family. The bus driver on MMAX got it from someone shopping and gave it to someone transferring to 201 or 24 or 401. Another picked up lunch from the school for their kid.

So suddenly the impact of one person in Brookside, infected 2.5 people randomly. = 3 Those 2.5 people randomly infected 2.5 more. = 8. That's all within 30 minutes. And it's not in Brookside, it's widely spread that quickly too.

One person in theory could lead to hundreds being infected a week later. With asymptomatic individuals this is especially likely.

With a potential 14 day incubation period this is why the scope of lockdowns needs to be large.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:54 am
by herrfrank
After some poking around, I have found this link:

https://unifiedgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... da6d4c986c

...which shows the cases in Wyandotte County by zip code. This is good -- I would like to see this for the whole metro. People tend to shop near where they live (no one should be riding the bus nowadays), so an idea of the location of infected residents will give us better information about where to shop and where to avoid shopping.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:04 am
by flyingember
Again, no it doesn't.

It's not just shopping. A huge number of people are still working and relatively few people work in the same zip code as they live.

Someone who lives near a cluster in WyCo could work in Olathe. Their coworker could live in Lee's Summit.
So one person just spread into two zip codes and there's potentially 14 days to spread the disease and no one knows.

You should be protecting yourself when shopping anywhere within about 60 miles of a cluster. Or the whole county.



And no one should be riding the bus? How do you think many people are getting to work who are deemed essential?

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:52 pm
by Highlander
I am curious if KCraggers think Corona Virus will cause a pause or reversal in the trend among people (particularly young people and retirees) who were choosing to live a more dense urban lifestyle and embrace viable public transportation systems. It's clear that the US epicenters are denser areas like NYC, NJ and New Orleans.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:07 pm
by brewcrew1000
I don't know, nobody is really taking this that seriously. If anything it could increase people living in urban areas because I feel like rents on apartments and commercial really estate are going to drop. From a jobs standpoint the harder hit areas are the more suburban Sunbelt cities. Boston, nyc, Chicago don't seem to be impacted that badly economically.