COVID19

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earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^MO started with among lowest cases in US, KCMO had restrictions before first known case yet MO is climbing the charts rapidly.

Click 'Yesterday' on this chart...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

MO had over 100 new known cases yesterday, biggest jump of lower half of states on list. And passed up Oregon, next door to state that had first outbreak. And it's still hard to get a test in MO, right? Site says MO deaths also now at 5, high for being on lower half of list.

This says 6 deaths in MO...
https://www.kshb.com/news/coronavirus/c ... nationwide

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Re: COVID19

Post by DaveKCMO »

Boone County/COMO: https://www.columbiatribune.com/news/20 ... home-order

This put about 40% of Missouri's population under some sort of stay-at-home order.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

The number of cases being reported tells you a lot more about how many tests have been performed than it does about how many cases there actually are. Deaths are the only reliable statistic.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

And MO is behind with testing so not a good sign. Deaths climbing too, now within top 20 states. Yet MO had earlier jump with restrictions than most of US.

Agree deaths a better tracker but this claims MO is one of lowest in testing yet relatively high growth in known cases...
https://covidtracking.com/data/

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

That's not reliable. It's taking the number of negative results only from the state lab, but it's taking the number of positive results from all labs.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Yes, saw that, is specific about Grade C for reliability. But MO still behind in testing...
In Missouri and Illinois, for example, state health departments say people qualify [for testing] if they have respiratory symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized and they have tested negative for other possible causes, such as flu.
https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/hea ... d6263.html

No matter the nitpicking, MO had an early start with restrictions yet not looking great at its stage. Will be interesting to see how the tightened lockdowns play out but with domestic flights still running through KCI...
https://www.flykci.com/flight-informati ... ht-status/

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Highlander
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Re: COVID19

Post by Highlander »

earthling wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:53 am
And MO is behind with testing so not a good sign. Deaths climbing too, now within top 20 states. Yet MO had earlier jump with restrictions than most of US.

Agree deaths a better tracker but this claims MO is one of lowest in testing yet relatively high growth in known cases...
https://covidtracking.com/data/
I am suspect of all data we get via various tracking websites etc... Even death data. Deaths might be accurate in the US during the early stages of the pandemic here but in Italy, I have read that they have probably overestimated the amount of deaths attributed to corona virus as hospitals were attributing all deaths in certain time periods to the disease without knowing if those that passed even had the virus. Makes sense because Italy has such an incredibly high mortality rate (>8%). Much higher than any other western country. In Germany, where the average age of the population is 1 year higher than Italy, the mortality rate is <1%. There are obviously other things involved (Italy had the crisis early and have had more cases run their course, Germany has better health care etc...) but, as a scientist, my alarm bells go off when there's such a large discrepancy between two populations.

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Re: COVID19

Post by FangKC »

A German friend, who is also a public health official there, said one thing that could explain the discrepancy is that Italians are more likely to live in multi-generational, small houses and apartments than Germans are. This places 18-30 year olds in more proximity to 65+ relatives, and the 30 and under cohort seems more likely to be the biggest group of asymptomatic carriers. His other theory is that Italians (especially seniors) are more likely to attend church services than Germans, which would place much older seniors outside their homes regularly in a germ-laden atmosphere.
Last edited by FangKC on Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Part of Germany's low death rate is attributed to mostly younger people getting it, tracking mild cases and perhaps doing a better job protecting those at risk...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-patients

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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

Highlander wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:19 pm
I am suspect of all data we get via various tracking websites etc... Even death data. Deaths might be accurate in the US during the early stages of the pandemic here but in Italy, I have read that they have probably overestimated the amount of deaths attributed to corona virus as hospitals were attributing all deaths in certain time periods to the disease without knowing if those that passed even had the virus. Makes sense because Italy has such an incredibly high mortality rate (>8%). Much higher than any other western country. In Germany, where the average age of the population is 1 year higher than Italy, the mortality rate is <1%. There are obviously other things involved (Italy had the crisis early and have had more cases run their course, Germany has better health care etc...) but, as a scientist, my alarm bells go off when there's such a large discrepancy between two populations.
I've read from reliable media that Italy and Spain both have had significant numbers of nursing home residents die without being tested, so those deaths are not included in the toll even though they probably should be.

There are several problems with your approach to comparing the mortality rates. The first is that you're assuming the problem is in the reported deaths even though the reported cases are wholly unreliable. You're also trying to calculate the mortality rate in the midst of everything instead of afterwards. It takes 3+ weeks for the virus to kill its host, so a country that is actively testing a lot of people will see a long lag between the two numbers whereas in Italy's situation you're more likely to have a person's test result come in more or less concurrently with their death. And you're also not taking into account that Italy's mortality rate is supposed to be higher than elsewhere because Italy is triaging and because of demographics. But really it just doesn't even make sense to try to calculate mortality rate at all from these statistics unless there's a good reason to believe that the testing has been extremely thorough. The Diamond Princess tested everybody. South Korea probably found the vast majority of cases. Beyond that I wouldn't trust any country's stats for total cases (of those with a significant number of cases).

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Re: COVID19

Post by Highlander »

kas1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:22 pm
Highlander wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:19 pm
I am suspect of all data we get via various tracking websites etc... Even death data. Deaths might be accurate in the US during the early stages of the pandemic here but in Italy, I have read that they have probably overestimated the amount of deaths attributed to corona virus as hospitals were attributing all deaths in certain time periods to the disease without knowing if those that passed even had the virus. Makes sense because Italy has such an incredibly high mortality rate (>8%). Much higher than any other western country. In Germany, where the average age of the population is 1 year higher than Italy, the mortality rate is <1%. There are obviously other things involved (Italy had the crisis early and have had more cases run their course, Germany has better health care etc...) but, as a scientist, my alarm bells go off when there's such a large discrepancy between two populations.
I've read from reliable media that Italy and Spain both have had significant numbers of nursing home residents die without being tested, so those deaths are not included in the toll even though they probably should be.

There are several problems with your approach to comparing the mortality rates. The first is that you're assuming the problem is in the reported deaths even though the reported cases are wholly unreliable. You're also trying to calculate the mortality rate in the midst of everything instead of afterwards. It takes 3+ weeks for the virus to kill its host, so a country that is actively testing a lot of people will see a long lag between the two numbers whereas in Italy's situation you're more likely to have a person's test result come in more or less concurrently with their death. And you're also not taking into account that Italy's mortality rate is supposed to be higher than elsewhere because Italy is triaging and because of demographics. But really it just doesn't even make sense to try to calculate mortality rate at all from these statistics unless there's a good reason to believe that the testing has been extremely thorough. The Diamond Princess tested everybody. South Korea probably found the vast majority of cases. Beyond that I wouldn't trust any country's stats for total cases (of those with a significant number of cases).
I'm not assuming anything. I question the fidelity of all the data. I point out the difference between Germany and Italy in terms when the virus originated but even Italy at the same point where Germany is now, had a considerably higher mortality rate. Obviously the mortality rate is impacted by under reporting # of cases every where and in Italy's case over-reporting number of deaths. That was the entire point of my post - with an 8% difference between mortality rates between Italy and Germany, be suspicious of the data.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Is surprising that Florida (I'm back here now), with the huge retired population there hasn't been an elderly outbreak or high deaths like Seattle. They seem to be doing a decent job protecting those at risk and senior centers (so far, could break out any time). But central FL doesn't have much density and summer like conditions might be helping some. A week ago more cases were attributed to travel than spreading, now travel related accounts for less than 1/3 of known cases./ Still many from NY are flocking here and now FL is requiring those flying in from NY/NJ to quarantine for a couple weeks. There's a lockdown now in FL but not as strict as other places and many don't follow it.

Meanwhile Louisiana has summer conditions yet double the deaths of FL.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

Highlander wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:34 pm
I have read that they have probably overestimated the amount of deaths attributed to corona virus as hospitals were attributing all deaths in certain time periods to the disease without knowing if those that passed even had the virus.
Where did you read this, exactly? What I found from googling is a quote from an Italian doctor saying that corona deaths might be overreported because every patient who dies with coronavirus is labeled as a coronavirus death without any effort to confirm that the virus was what actually caused the death.

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Highlander
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Re: COVID19

Post by Highlander »

kas1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:51 pm
Highlander wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:34 pm
I have read that they have probably overestimated the amount of deaths attributed to corona virus as hospitals were attributing all deaths in certain time periods to the disease without knowing if those that passed even had the virus.
Where did you read this, exactly? What I found from googling is a quote from an Italian doctor saying that corona deaths might be overreported because every patient who dies with coronavirus is labeled as a coronavirus death without any effort to confirm that the virus was what actually caused the death.
I read it yesterday or the day before. An entire article dedicated to the subject. I've read probably 40-50 articles on various aspects of the pandemic in the last couple of days so not sure where it was. It was an American article though.

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Re: COVID19

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earthling wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:41 pm
Is surprising that Florida (I'm back here now), with the huge retired population there hasn't been an elderly outbreak or high deaths like Seattle. They seem to be doing a decent job protecting those at risk and senior centers (so far, could break out any time). But central FL doesn't have much density and summer like conditions might be helping some. A week ago more cases were attributed to travel than spreading, now travel related accounts for less than 1/3 of known cases./ Still many from NY are flocking here and now FL is requiring those flying in from NY/NJ to quarantine for a couple weeks. There's a lockdown now in FL but not as strict as other places and many don't follow it.

Meanwhile Louisiana has summer conditions yet double the deaths of FL.
Miami ER doctors seem to think there is cause for concern and no one is listening.

https://wsvn.com/news/local/broward/doz ... f-warning/
Seventy-six ER doctors wrote a letter to the community, saying in part, “We’ve never written a letter to you before, but we’ve never experienced a crisis like the one we are currently facing. We are the people who are witnessing first-hand the impact that COVID-19 is having on people in our community, and we have seen a frighteningly rapid increase in the number of people with severe and life-threatening respiratory illnesses coming into our emergency rooms. The low number of confirmed cases in published reports does not show the true number of people who have been infected by the virus in Miami…”
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 30821.html

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Central FL takes it somewhat more seriously in terms of distancing but otherwise considered just a notch or two worse than flu. No one is connected with it with personal accounts, which matters here. S Florida Latino culture is more touchy/feely/social like Spain/Italy so might have more spreading. Beaches are loaded up even if officially closed.

As far as concerns for healthcare workers, there are probably thousands if not 10s of thousands of retired healtchare workers here but not aware if State is asking for those capable to come forward. Would imagine that will happen when needed. Summer conditions might keep it manageable but doesn't take much to enter retirement communities.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Eight deaths now in MO, putting it in top 15 of states for moment even though having early restrictions...
https://www.kmbc.com/article/covid-19-m ... y/31900937

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Re: COVID19

Post by FangKC »

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest?f ... 6aSSxkgINQ

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FangKC
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Re: COVID19

Post by FangKC »

Doctors produce 3D view of the inside of COVID-19 patient's lungs
...
“What you’re seeing in the video, essentially the blue part is the more normal lung, but anything you’re seeing that’s yellow is lung that’s being destroyed by the virus,” Mortman said.

The rendering was created in partnership with a company called Surgical Theater that used a patients CAT scan to create an interactive model.

“It’s quite alarming to see, in all honesty. Because unlike your garden variety pneumonia that might affect only one small part of the lung, or unlike the common flu, what you’re seeing in this video is really the widespread diffuse damage to the lung,” Mortman said.
...
https://www.kmbc.com/article/doctor-ins ... t/31915109

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Markets and industries expected to be economically impacted most by COVID.

KC and STL expected to be hit harder than places like MSP and upper Atlantic. Apparently because of ties to transportation. No surprise to see Vegas and Orlando among hardest to be hit.

Image

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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... t-hardest/

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