COVID19

Come here to talk about topics that are not related to development, or even Kansas City.
kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

It's a chicken/egg problem. Containment doesn't look realistic because the current administration is nonfunctional. But letting the virus run its course isn't a reasonable option, so containment should be attempted at this point regardless of the hurdles. With half of the country already ordered to stay home for a month, it would not take many additional steps to reduce the number of cases down to a level where they could be identified and aggressively attacked. But instead all we get are half-measures that still allow the virus to spread. The status quo is untenable. Removing current restrictions is untenable. The only remaining option is to embrace the shutdown and actually do it the right way.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

The US/Euro versions of a shutdown aren't anywhere close to 'right way' Asian versions, culturally/logistically more difficult to pull off and might be too late even if Asian version tried. Still discussing/pursuing containment in West is unrealistic and maybe even naive. Now the Feds are talking potential 30% unemployment by summer with just partial shutdown.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

I agree that it will fail in the US, at least in the near term. My point is that there's no harm in making a serious effort at it once you've already ordered everyone to stay at home. At that point there's nothing to lose. I'm sorta half-expecting Cuomo to try to make it happen all on his own. I'm very pessimistic right now, so the rational half of my brain is telling me that any new development is almost guaranteed to be better than what I expect. Surely there's a limit to how long this can go on before someone in some position of power decides it's time to stop reacting and start planning.

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Re: COVID19

Post by Highlander »

kas1 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:33 pm
Surely there's a limit to how long this can go on before someone in some position of power decides it's time to stop reacting and start planning.
Absolutely. Your post reminds me of this scene from LOTR. Not sure our current leadership is competent enough to do so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7MCVm4XISc
Last edited by Highlander on Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »


earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^That's the Singapore method, which can work for a city-state island or cruise ship or communist-like countries but not the West, especially like US where each state is governed differently and GOP in control (with idiot at the helm) that favors states managing their own affairs. Not agreeing with latter but that's what we have. The article also indicates why it won't work in US... back to cultural differences.

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Re: COVID19

Post by mykn »

I hope this pandemic gets it through peoples heads that we need a radically improved social safety net in this country.

brewcrew1000
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Re: COVID19

Post by brewcrew1000 »

mykn wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:39 am
I hope this pandemic gets it through peoples heads that we need a radically improved social safety net in this country.
I'm sure we will get one for the businesses, we socialize risk in this country and privitize profits. Cruise Ships should get nothing, they are based in other countries now to avoid taxes

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Re: COVID19

Post by mykn »

brewcrew1000 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:44 am
mykn wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:39 am
I hope this pandemic gets it through peoples heads that we need a radically improved social safety net in this country.
I'm sure we will get one for the businesses, we socialize risk in this country and privitize profits. Cruise Ships should get nothing, they are based in other countries now to avoid taxes
Of course, can't let the wealthy get hurt

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Roanoker
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Re: COVID19

Post by Roanoker »

If businesses of all sizes suffer, all the people who work for them will, too. So then will tax money, which is all the governments have to help families and individuals who have lost income.

mykn
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Re: COVID19

Post by mykn »

Which is why we should actually tax businesses and wealthy at a reasonable amount so we can fund these programs so when shit hits the fan we don't have what we have now, unlike now.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Hate to agree with Trump advisers and capitalists but at some point we do need to find the right balance of living with COVID and avoiding economic disaster especially destroying livelihood of those living per paycheck. Need to find more creative ways to protect those at risk while allowing workforce to return and still using reasonable levels of social distancing when possible, especially with those at risk.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump ... =home-page
The president’s chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, echoed Trump in an interview with CNBC.

“At some point, you have to ask yourself if the shutdown is doing more harm than good,” offered Kudlow, adding that “I can’t answer that question.”

States and cities have shutdown business and personal activity in an effort to mitigate the spread of the illness, but those efforts are throwing the domestic and global economy into a recession.

It isn’t just Trump and his inner circle. Some prominent economists, businesspeople and lawmakers are also raising questions about how long the U.S. can shutter large parts of its economy before the damage becomes permanent.

Prominently among them are former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. He said people with lower risks to the coronavirus — generally healthy people under 50 — should be allowed to return to work in a few weeks.

“Crushing the economy, jobs and morale is also a health issue—and beyond,” he tweeted.
<insert image of dynamite with a fuse on both ends>
Last edited by earthling on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

brewcrew1000
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Re: COVID19

Post by brewcrew1000 »

When we do get back going I can see Commercial Real Estate taking a huge hit unless rents go down as a result. Entire offices are working from home and I guarantee you they are more productive or as productive than going into the office.

brewcrew1000
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Re: COVID19

Post by brewcrew1000 »

I don't even really care anymore if we have economic collapse. After this, we will just keep making the same mistakes, people will still keep consuming more and people/business will have loads of debt and the government will just keep bailing everyone out until it all collapses, it's like a huge pyramid scheme. Capitalism is nothing but a pyramid scheme that needs to keep growing.

I honestly wish we could dissolve the federal government, it's useless and doesn't work, federal government should just have basic border patrol and let the states do all the SS, healthcare, Medicare, etc but it's impossible now because it's like our entire economy if built around the federal government and many businesses wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for federal government.
Last edited by brewcrew1000 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

flyingember
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Re: COVID19

Post by flyingember »

Have you read the book 2140?

It's not a perfect connection, and the story has a crazy deus ex machina in it, but the premise is that at some point we need to stop bailing out companies for bad economic decisions

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

This article does a very good job of explaining in simple terms not just what needs to be done, but why it needs to be done that way:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

Clfff's Notes:

1) The R-value (number of people each infected person infects) of the coronavirus with no countermeasures is estimated to be 2.5
2) If R is reduce to 1 then the number of infections will remain constant, anything over that leads to exponential growth
3) As long as the total number of cases is small then you can allow R to be as high as 1
4) The number of cases now is not small. Right now we need to get R as close to 0 as possible. That way we can shut things down for the shortest period of time while still reducing the number of cases as much as possible.
5) It's easier to keep R low if the total number of cases is small because you have the capacity to test everybody that's been exposed, identifying them and isolating them during the 5-ish days in which they are infected and contagious but not yet symptomatic. With our current exponential growth, most people currently infected have acquired it too recently to develop symptoms, leading society to be flooded with invisible carriers, forcing us to enforce blanket shutdowns.

Nothing about this is especially complicated or difficult for the American people to do.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^The Singapore/S Korea tracing method would've been ideal and also avoids drastic shutdowns. Apparently too late for the US to attempt if it could even work with our bureaucracy - those are essentially small islands.

A truly full lockdown method will be difficult to pull off with 50 states governed differently but seems we're headed toward attempting that direction at high expense yet half-assed. Domestic flights probably would need to be killed to work among other more extreme shutdown measures that unfortunately too many probably won't abide to (culture differences discussed). Italy is showing possible signs of hitting a peak but they've isolated zones and some zones testing even those with no symptoms, US hasn't.

The US may have to find another method to get below R1, wait for vaccine/drugs or a weaker strain that dominates. Is interesting that US deaths relative to case rate is relatively low. That is, when looking at point when US hit 10K or 20K known cases compared to other countries hitting those points, the US death count is often lower, including vs. China. Germany is one of lowest. Berlin now has a lockdown but allows all to go to work if work from home not an option.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Florida is now requiring those on flights from NY/NJ to self-quarantine. Should rest of US do this at state level? Would be surprising if GOP kills all domestic flights.

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Steve52
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Re: COVID19

Post by Steve52 »

If the lack of social distancing and finesse I experienced at Marshes yesterday during a shopping trip is any indication of the new norm I suspect we are not out of the woods by a long shot. Can you at least require your employees (yes food stockers too) to wear latex gloves? Damn.

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