COVID19

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earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Health officials are more concerned about hospital overload. World/US leaders are willing to commit economic suicide to prevent more deaths. But take a look at the forest from the trees...

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kas1
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Re: COVID19

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100k deaths by end of year is a Utopian fantasy at this point. We're doing absolutely nothing (meaningful) to stop this thing, hospitals in some areas are nearly overwhelmed already with just a fraction of one percent of the population infected, and the fatality rate will jump to 5% for people who are beyond the capacity of the health care system. Italy long ago reached the point where they can't treat everyone, and the cutoff point for receiving treatment has now dropped to 50 years of age -- anyone older than that is written off. They had 800 deaths today, which is equivalent to 4500 in a country the size of the US, and the deaths are still growing exponentially there. And we've been following their playbook to the letter. Right now we're in the perfect no-man's land where we're committing economic suicide while also not actually stopping the outbreak. If you don't quash this thing completely then it's just going to bounce back again the minute you open everything up again.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

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Your chart also doesn't account for how many increased deaths there will be in every other category due to shortage of hospital beds and doctors. People don't stop having heart attacks just because the hospital is swarmed with COVID patients.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

kas1 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:49 pm
Right now we're in the perfect no-man's land where we're committing economic suicide while also not actually stopping the outbreak. If you don't quash this thing completely then it's just going to bounce back again the minute you open everything up again.
And that's the big gamble. All good points. We're killing the economy with the *assumption* it can be contained but it's not looking realistic outside Asia, if Asian countries are providing directionally correct data that is. IE Russia claims low COVID cases yet pneumonia cases are over 35% higher than previous year.

It may slow down naturally to a controllable level as virus outbreaks do tend to peak. COVID isn't spreading as fast in most regions with summer conditions but it's still spreading along with deaths (and check out Brazil).

The unknowns about this is what makes every move a poker game. We (edit: can't) rely on the East to make informed decisions.
Last edited by earthling on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

droopy
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Re: COVID19

Post by droopy »

https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronav ... 00106.html

30 day stay at home order issued for KCMO and Jackson, Johnson and Wyandotte counties. Restaurants staying open for takeout and delivery only. Grocery stores, pharmacies and other essential businesses staying open too

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grovester
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Re: COVID19

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droopy wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:04 pm
https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronav ... 00106.html

30 day stay at home order issued for KCMO and Jackson, Johnson and Wyandotte counties. Restaurants staying open for takeout and delivery only. Grocery stores, pharmacies and other essential businesses staying open too
It's a pretty spongy order, lots of exemptions.

I think they are trying to get the public's attention (rightly) and to shut down the most egregious examples like gyms and massage parlors.

brewcrew1000
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Re: COVID19

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grovester
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Re: COVID19

Post by grovester »

South Korea isn't.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

It's remarkable how at any site I visit, the people claiming this is all no big deal are the literal exact same people who tell everyone that China is lying about having it under control.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

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grovester wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 pm
South Korea isn't.
Hopefully. Though unlike the West, Asian culture tends to highly value responsibility to the group, so they'll listen to the orders of the community authorities to the point of high personal sacrifice. Have a better chance to contain than West. In Italy and Spain, people are super touchy-feely-handsy with each other, and there are few suburbs. Even in rural areas, it's tight village life, not spread out. NY and densest parts of US could potentially pattern more like Italy/Spain and maybe even rest of US.

Missouri will be interesting to watch given the tight restrictions started when having very few cases. If the rate of cases/deaths per capita are on average with rest of US in 2-3 more weeks, then the restrictions may end up being pointless.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

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kas1 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:20 pm
It's remarkable how at any site I visit, the people claiming this is all no big deal are the literal exact same people who tell everyone that China is lying about having it under control.
Many who take COVID seriously also question the data out of China. As well as comments from outsiders living in China saying not much has really changed. Like Russia, many think they are recently diagnosing deaths as pneumonia and now only reporting cases attributed to incoming international travel. They kicked out American reporters, which raises questions.

And even if accurate, it's a bit naive to think the West could contain like Asia due to cultural differences.

BTW, NY state (20M pops) did pass up S Korea (50M pops) in known cases and may pass up France soon (67M pops). Yes, NY has bumped up testing more than rest of US but still not at higher rate than most Euro countries.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

LA County gives up on containment...
https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... nt-testing
Los Angeles County health officials advised doctors to give up on testing patients in the hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak, instructing them to test patients only if a positive result could change how they would be treated.

They are not planning to test patients who have the symptoms but are otherwise healthy enough to be sent home to self-quarantine — meaning they may never show up in official tallies of people who tested positive.

brewcrew1000
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Re: COVID19

Post by brewcrew1000 »

This is what they should have been doing the entire time.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^Agree and there may be ways to take action while not destroying the economy. Focus on hospital resources, use military/popup hospitals, manufacturing more equipment as highest priority, bringing capable healthcare people out of retirement, focusing on those at risk while still allowing people to work for a living with social distancing and/or other precautions. We need to learn to live *with* this rather than pursue absolute containment at this point.

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grovester
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Re: COVID19

Post by grovester »

earthling wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:58 am
^Agree and there may be ways to take action while not destroying the economy. Focus on hospital resources, use military/popup hospitals, manufacturing more equipment as highest priority, bringing capable healthcare people out of retirement, focusing on those at risk while still allowing people to work for a living with social distancing and/or other precautions. We need to learn to live *with* this rather than pursue absolute containment at this point.
"Living with this" is what we will be doing come summer and fall, if we're lucky. Actually until there is a vaccine.

What we're doing now is necessary to slow down the rate of infection.

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Tale- ... 96951.html

earthling
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Re: COVID19

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TN has 1 death with more cases. KY has more deaths with fewer cases. MO has been strictest of the 3 early on yet so far has more deaths than both. Testing rates are a factor too of course. The data set is too small for these 3 states to analyze at this point.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Last edited by earthling on Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

earthling wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:21 am
kas1 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:20 pm
It's remarkable how at any site I visit, the people claiming this is all no big deal are the literal exact same people who tell everyone that China is lying about having it under control.
Many who take COVID seriously also question the data out of China. As well as comments from outsiders living in China saying not much has really changed. Like Russia, many think they are recently diagnosing deaths as pneumonia and now only reporting cases attributed to incoming international travel. They kicked out American reporters, which raises questions.

And even if accurate, it's a bit naive to think the West could contain like Asia due to cultural differences.

BTW, NY state (20M pops) did pass up S Korea (50M pops) in known cases and may pass up France soon (67M pops). Yes, NY has bumped up testing more than rest of US but still not at higher rate than most Euro countries.
I've heard quite a bit from a friend who lives in China as well as other detailed accounts from internet acquaintances who live in China, and it seems very clear that their containment strategy has been successful. I wouldn't have any way to know if they are fudging the numbers a bit, but if there were major outbreaks outside of Wuhan then we'd have heard something about it by now. In China they quarantined entire cities based on a single batch of infections whereas in the US we wait until there are dozens of deaths in a city and then ask people very nicely to please stay home unless they work at someplace very important like a liquor store or feel like going outside for some exercise. And of course they didn't have all the sick people living at home with their families like we're doing here, which is just phenomenally stupid.

Some of the confusion about China stems from the fact that most people are unaware that the Asian version of lockdown looks absolutely nothing like the Western version of lockdown. In China, people literally could not leave their homes for weeks at a time. Food and other supplies were delivered weekly by the government. So when people hear that China is lifting restrictions and letting people go back to work, they think it means life in China is going back to normal, then they hear a different account and think it's a big contradiction and that they've spotted a lie. But all that's really happened is that they've misinterpreted what they've heard. China's idea of lifting some restrictions and letting some people return to work is still more restrictive than what we have in the vast majority of the US.

China was well prepared, quickly developed a comprehensive plan, acted decisively, and the public took it seriously. That they would have far better results is the typical, expected result here.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

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Many who question China data don't dispute better abilities to contain, but rather the actual actions... kicking out US reporters as if something to hide, trying to avoid blame for start of virus, locals who say recent deaths are pegged simply as pneumonia yet flu not diagnosed. And China admits many out there have it with no symptoms, so things don't add up. But even if China data accurate, the West can't look to Asia as a reference due to cultural differences.

kas1
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

Cultural differences are a piece of the puzzle, but that can't be used as cover for the complete absence of leadership.

earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

No but the West has to find another way to live with it given containment doesn't look realistic.

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