KCRag Forum

The IRS facility in downtown KC dropped the mask requirement for fully vaccinated folks as of Tuesday evening.

I was wondering if people were more likely to die in Missouri based on political party

1. I took the 83 state house seats with a competitive race in the 2020 election and figured what percentage voted Republican vs Democrat.

2. We know each district is around 37,000 people, give or take.

3. There's county level data of the death rate ex, 1 in X people died. Now, districts cross county lines but I figured an average of all the counties served was good enough for a ballpark number.

Now, we take the voter percentage of each district by party and figure how many died by party.


Best guess, 60% of deaths are more likely to vote Republican
Extrapolating from 10015 deaths total there's 2000 more Republican deaths state wide.

There's no chance that all elections will be impacted by this number across the entire state. It's too small a number.
But the smaller the election the greater a chance. I found elections so small that winning vs losing was 1-3 votes. Those elections sometimes are the path to a state house seat so they can have a real result.

I've seen talk that this could affect some races, and especially who ends up with a majority in the House of Representative in Washington.

From other thread...

FangKC wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:49 pm A lot of it depends on those who haven't been vaccinated -- not just in the USA, but worldwide, because the economy is global.

^Given Sinovac is apparently most commonly used outside US/Europe and reports coming out it's not very effective with Delta as well as less effective with S American Lambda variant, we probably have a long term problem. Need to throw countless billions at developing in-home pill treatments as well, and some may be available by end of year. If we can't beat COVID (few virus experts really believe we can), at least focus on treatments that prevent death and hospital stays. Expecting most of planet to vax every 6-8 months is going to be a problem, which is what Pfizer seems to be suggesting given rise of Delta in heavily Pfizer vaccinated Israel, about 1/2 of new cases infecting those fully vaccinated.

As far as construction supply issues from other thread, we're probably just going to have to learn to live with COVID, use defenses as realistically feasible/deployable and move on with being productive and living life.

earthling wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:04 pm From other thread...

FangKC wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:49 pm A lot of it depends on those who haven't been vaccinated -- not just in the USA, but worldwide, because the economy is global.

^Given Sinovac is apparently most commonly used outside US/Europe and reports coming out it's not very effective with Delta as well as less effective with S American Lambda variant, we probably have a long term problem. Need to throw countless billions at developing in-home pill treatments as well, and some may be available by end of year. If we can't beat COVID (few virus experts really believe we can), at least focus on treatments that prevent death and hospital stays. Expecting most of planet to vax every 6-8 months is going to be a problem, which is what Pfizer seems to be suggesting given rise of Delta in heavily Pfizer vaccinated Israel, about 1/2 of new cases infecting those fully vaccinated.

As far as construction supply issues from other thread, we're probably just going to have to learn to live with COVID, use defenses as realistically feasible/deployable and move on with being productive and living life.

I'm astounded how many people simply don't understand virology. Especially with Influenza being so prevalent every year. You'd think they'd all have figured it out by now...

Here's a hint: If you think COVID is going anywhere near "Away", you're dead wrong. Stop saying COVID and start saying FLU if your brain requires that level of thinking to obtain clarity. They both behave generally the same, as nearly every widespread virus does. If your life doesn't revolve around the Flu, then it shouldn't revolve around Covid. There's no ridding the world of viruses. Stop thinking this is something you can simply mask up and move beyond. It's not.

You move forward recognizing the facts that;
1. Various treatments exist but they will never prevent you from contracting the virus or illness, and their effectiveness will range from poor to bad.
2. Various new strains of viruses will constantly be evolving and persisting.
3. Various new treatments will need to be concocted every year through the end of time, and they will all behave as mentioned in point #1.
4. You will contract COVID just as you contract literally thousands of other viral infections throughout your life. Stop being ignorant of your own medical history.
5. You will likely survive COVID and every other viral infection, as the vast majority of people do.
6. You will eventually die, as all life does.

im2kull wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:37 am

earthling wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:04 pm From other thread...

FangKC wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:49 pm A lot of it depends on those who haven't been vaccinated -- not just in the USA, but worldwide, because the economy is global.

^Given Sinovac is apparently most commonly used outside US/Europe and reports coming out it's not very effective with Delta as well as less effective with S American Lambda variant, we probably have a long term problem. Need to throw countless billions at developing in-home pill treatments as well, and some may be available by end of year. If we can't beat COVID (few virus experts really believe we can), at least focus on treatments that prevent death and hospital stays. Expecting most of planet to vax every 6-8 months is going to be a problem, which is what Pfizer seems to be suggesting given rise of Delta in heavily Pfizer vaccinated Israel, about 1/2 of new cases infecting those fully vaccinated.

As far as construction supply issues from other thread, we're probably just going to have to learn to live with COVID, use defenses as realistically feasible/deployable and move on with being productive and living life.

I'm astounded how many people simply don't understand virology. Especially with Influenza being so prevalent every year. You'd think they'd all have figured it out by now...

Here's a hint: If you think COVID is going anywhere near "Away", you're dead wrong. Stop saying COVID and start saying FLU if your brain requires that level of thinking to obtain clarity. They both behave generally the same, as nearly every widespread virus does. If your life doesn't revolve around the Flu, then it shouldn't revolve around Covid. There's no ridding the world of viruses. Stop thinking this is something you can simply mask up and move beyond. It's not.

You move forward recognizing the facts that;
1. Various treatments exist but they will never prevent you from contracting the virus or illness, and their effectiveness will range from poor to bad.
2. Various new strains of viruses will constantly be evolving and persisting.
3. Various new treatments will need to be concocted every year through the end of time, and they will all behave as mentioned in point #1.
4. You will contract COVID just as you contract literally thousands of other viral infections throughout your life. Stop being ignorant of your own medical history.
5. You will likely survive COVID and every other viral infection, as the vast majority of people do.
6. You will eventually die, as all life does.

Morbid, to the point, fairly realistic. Solid take

im2kull wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:37 am
I'm astounded how many people simply don't understand virology. Especially with Influenza being so prevalent every year. You'd think they'd all have figured it out by now...

Here's a hint: If you think COVID is going anywhere near "Away", you're dead wrong. Stop saying COVID and start saying FLU if your brain requires that level of thinking to obtain clarity. They both behave generally the same, as nearly every widespread virus does. If your life doesn't revolve around the Flu, then it shouldn't revolve around Covid. There's no ridding the world of viruses. Stop thinking this is something you can simply mask up and move beyond. It's not.

You move forward recognizing the facts that;
1. Various treatments exist but they will never prevent you from contracting the virus or illness, and their effectiveness will range from poor to bad.
2. Various new strains of viruses will constantly be evolving and persisting.
3. Various new treatments will need to be concocted every year through the end of time, and they will all behave as mentioned in point #1.
4. You will contract COVID just as you contract literally thousands of other viral infections throughout your life. Stop being ignorant of your own medical history.
5. You will likely survive COVID and every other viral infection, as the vast majority of people do.
6. You will eventually die, as all life does.

It's a great take except for one part. You bungled your thesis of treating it like the flu.

We shouldn't treat it like the flu. We should treat it more like the worst flu outbreak in ~100 years

The 1918 flu pandemic killed 600,000 in the US. The population was about 103 million that year
0.00461 ratio

For the flu, I'm using figure 2, 2010-11. It was the worst year on the chart
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

37,000 deaths of 21,000,000 cases.
0.00176
Nationally, 37,000 deaths of 309,000,000 people
0.0001119

Known US Covid death rate I used is 607,360 deaths of 33,932,000 cases
0.0178
Looking at total population with covid is 607,360 deaths of 331,000,000 people
0.00183

The 1918 flu death rate was 2.5x more deadly than Covid in the population as a whole so far
The 1918 flu death rate was 41x worse than the most recent flu year in the past decade
Covid is 10x worse than the more recent flu year for a percent of people infected dieing

So Covid is much closer to the death rate of a pandemic so bad we still talk about it 100+ years later than anything

flyingember wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:51 pm

im2kull wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:37 am
I'm astounded how many people simply don't understand virology. Especially with Influenza being so prevalent every year. You'd think they'd all have figured it out by now...

Here's a hint: If you think COVID is going anywhere near "Away", you're dead wrong. Stop saying COVID and start saying FLU if your brain requires that level of thinking to obtain clarity. They both behave generally the same, as nearly every widespread virus does. If your life doesn't revolve around the Flu, then it shouldn't revolve around Covid. There's no ridding the world of viruses. Stop thinking this is something you can simply mask up and move beyond. It's not.

You move forward recognizing the facts that;
1. Various treatments exist but they will never prevent you from contracting the virus or illness, and their effectiveness will range from poor to bad.
2. Various new strains of viruses will constantly be evolving and persisting.
3. Various new treatments will need to be concocted every year through the end of time, and they will all behave as mentioned in point #1.
4. You will contract COVID just as you contract literally thousands of other viral infections throughout your life. Stop being ignorant of your own medical history.
5. You will likely survive COVID and every other viral infection, as the vast majority of people do.
6. You will eventually die, as all life does.

It's a great take except for one part. You bungled your thesis of treating it like the flu.

We shouldn't treat it like the flu. We should treat it more like the worst flu outbreak in ~100 years

The 1918 flu pandemic killed 600,000 in the US. The population was about 103 million that year
0.00461 ratio

For the flu, I'm using figure 2, 2010-11. It was the worst year on the chart
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

37,000 deaths of 21,000,000 cases.
0.00176
Nationally, 37,000 deaths of 309,000,000 people
0.0001119

Known US Covid death rate I used is 607,360 deaths of 33,932,000 cases
0.0178
Looking at total population with covid is 607,360 deaths of 331,000,000 people
0.00183

The 1918 flu death rate was 2.5x more deadly than Covid in the population as a whole so far
The 1918 flu death rate was 41x worse than the most recent flu year in the past decade
Covid is 10x worse than the more recent flu year for a percent of people infected dieing

So Covid is much closer to the death rate of a pandemic so bad we still talk about it 100+ years later than anything

You also bungled your response when you treated 1918 technology, diagnosis, and record keeping as the same that exists in 2021.

Just saying.. that alone should help you realize how flawed all of this analysis is.

im2kull wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:21 am
You also bungled your response when you treated 1918 technology, diagnosis, and record keeping as the same that exists in 2021.

Just saying.. that alone should help you realize how flawed all of this analysis is.

Even if you want to throw big question marks on all the numbers, it doesn't invalidate that Covid is dramatically worse than any flu year than one.

Suspected/known US covid deaths and then total deaths back to 1/4/2020
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -wrfu/data

covid deaths of total deaths nationwide
< 1 year: 82 of 28909 (0.28%)
1-4: 40 of 5286 (0.76%)
5-14: 117 of 8421 (1.39%)
15-24: 5406 of 166403 (3.25%)
25-34: 4396 of 112038 (3.92%)
35-44: 11166 of 161165 (6.93%)
45-54: 20856 of 291615 (7.15%)
55-64: 76729 of 670684 (11.44%)
65-74: 134045 of 1029958 (13.01%)
75-84: 164531 of 1238134 (13.29%)
85+: 178151 of 1496156 (11.91%)

It's a little behind other sources at 595k deaths
total: 11.43% of deaths since Jan 1, 2020

What does the delta variant mean?

It appears the death rate isn’t higher but the spread rate is faster

The Washington post found that adjusted for population those unvaccinated in MO are 50 cases per 100,000
Arkansas is 98% of cases are unvaccinated individuals
They show an adjusted death rate of about 4% of unvaccinated
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/i ... lta-surge/

Since there’s a clear political split this means if 1 in 2000 get it each day and 4% dies that 3075 unvaccinated get sick in MO each day and 123 die

So over 100 days that’s 12300 who are most likely Republican at this point. In May 36-49% of Republicans planned to not get vaccinated compared to 6% of Democrats

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/he ... arty-lines
Splitting the difference, that’s about 10x Republican case for 1 Democrat case. Reality is messier but I bet cases where it’s 100% Republicans far outweighs places where it’s more Democrats

So let’s say that of those 3075 cases, 2795 are Republican and 275 are Democrat
Deaths, about 112 to 11

So over 100 days it’s possible 11200 Republicans die to 1100 Democrats

As already seen, rough numbers were 6000 to 4000 so far
viewtopic.php?p=623312#p623312

So this becomes 17200 to 5100
22% Democrat deaths, 78% Republican deaths

Vaccination disinformation is of the greatest killings of your own supporters a party could possibly create. The Republican Party is a death cult more interested in destroying themselves for power than anything

If the rate increases, the percentages will continue to grow in the favor of democrats

Delta is what flips seats simply because it spreads faster.

Given the recent about face on the "get your vaccines, everyone!" messaging from the GOP/Fox News higher-ups, it looks like they have also worked through the math and came to a similar conclusion.

swid wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:53 pm Given the recent about face on the "get your vaccines, everyone!" messaging from the GOP/Fox News higher-ups, it looks like they have also worked through the math and came to a similar conclusion.

That’s my thought.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21 ... ed-deaths/

Texas has seen nearly 9,000 COVID-19 deaths since February. All but 43 were unvaccinated people.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... itics.html
April

The relationship between vaccination and politics reflects demographics. Vaccine hesitancy is highest in counties that are rural and have lower income levels and college graduation rates — the same characteristics found in counties that were more likely to have supported Mr. Trump. In wealthier Trump-supporting counties with higher college graduation rates, the vaccination gap is smaller, the analysis found, but the partisan gap holds even after accounting for income, race and age demographics, population density and a county’s infection and death rate.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 272085.php
Late June

Nearly half of Texas Republican voters say they do not plan to receive a COVID-19 vaccination, according to new polling released Thursday by Quinnipiac University.

All told, pollsters found, about one-third of Texas adults said they do not plan to get vaccinated, whereas about 70 percent said they have already received or are planning to get inoculated.

Pollsters found “sharp differences” in views on vaccines among political parties, with about 30 percent of independents saying they’ll forego vaccines and 13 percent of Democrats saying the same.

Texas counties that are more rural and were likely to have voted for former President Donald Trump have generally lagged more urban counties, such as Harris County, when it comes to vaccine rates.

Presidential election and vaccination disparity snapshot:

Trump won 25 states
average 58.9% win rate
average 41.4% fully vaccination rate.
So the vaccination rate is closely in line with the Biden vote average of 41.3%

Biden won 26 states + DC
54.2% average win rate
57.55% fully vaccinated rate
So the vaccination rate is closely in line with the Biden votes average.

If true, not good news on Pfizer decreasing efficacy over time. Need more studies but is probably why Pfizer seems to suggest a need to vax every 6 months.

From Israel study, which is one of most vaccinated countries that got an early jump...

The report has also reflected the decreasing potency of the vaccination, showing a mere 16 percent effectiveness against transmission among those vaccinated in January, compared to 44 percent of those vaccinated in February, 67 percent of those who received their shots in March, and 75 percent for those vaccinated in April.

The relatively better news is that preventing severe cases is over 85% if vax taken 6 months ago (though not as high as advertised). Will have to wait and see effectiveness for 8+ months...

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavi ... istry-says

Seems older and those with weak immunity who took vaccine 5+ months ago might consider masking again, if not sooner.

"If you think COVID is going anywhere near "Away", you're dead wrong. Stop saying COVID and start saying FLU if your brain requires that level of thinking to obtain clarity."

The big difference I see between the flu and covid is that the flu is generally considered to be a threat for roughly 5 months a year whereas covid is a threat all 12 months.
I know quite a few people who have contacted covid recently and almost all have been vaccinated. Some of those people have had covid twice already and were vaccinated.

Vaccination doesn't prevent COVID infection. It helps the immune system recognize COVID to fight it off. In most people, vaccination results in a less serious infection, and less likelihood of death from it.

The vast majority of hospitalization and deaths now are among unvaccinated.

Vaccinated people should still wear masks when in enclosed spaces around other people. Vaccinated people can spread the DELTA variant of the virus to others. Masks reduce spread.

We need to severely slow the spread of COVID because future variants might elude the vaccine completely, and we we will be back at square one. New variants have formed, and will form, as long as so many remain unvaccinated.

Children's Mercy Hospital is at capacity.

https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/chil ... 676d1.html

Back to masks indoors tomorrow.

FangKC wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:50 pm Vaccination doesn't prevent COVID infection. It helps the immune system recognize COVID to fight it off. In most people, vaccination results in a less serious infection, and less likelihood of death from it.

The vast majority of hospitalization and deaths now are among unvaccinated.

Vaccinated people should still wear masks when in enclosed spaces around other people. Vaccinated people can spread the DELTA variant of the virus to others. Masks reduce spread.

We need to severely slow the spread of COVID because future variants might elude the vaccine completely, and we we will be back at square one. New variants have formed, and will form, as long as so many remain unvaccinated.

Children's Mercy Hospital is at capacity.

https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/chil ... 676d1.html

I think there’s some misinformation here. The vaccine does prevent you from getting Covid. None of them are 100% but in several studies certain vaccines show a 90% efficacy rate in preventing Covid.

COVID is an airborne virus hosted in the human pulmonary system -- it is still spreading in indoor spaces in great quantity in KC and most everywhere in the world. So unless you are avoiding people like 2020, you are getting "exposed" if not infected. The word infected simply implies sero-conversion. Vaccinated people would have antibodies to fight the virus, so they might still test positive during a period of exposure, but without serious disease.

I am getting a third Pfizer shot in August as it will have been five months since my second shot. I am planning to continue with a five-month boosters forever, per my MD's advice. Future guidance may change that, but that is my current medical advice.