COVID19

[grovester]

The other problem is so many people will become severely ill at once (in addition to all the flu cases and other illness that typically use the hospital resources) that you overrun the system such that people cant receive the care they need and people unnecessarily die who otherwise would have survived. That is what we are seeing in other countries. We know thats what happens unless you flatten the infection curve.

^^This, people will die from appendicitis, bacterial infections, etc., things that are normally treatable, because the hospitals are maxxed out.

[kboish]

And look, we will make it through this. Its not a world ender or something, but it will be more traumatic and deadly then it could have been.

[FangKC]

We've already seen a case where there are multiple deaths in one nursing home in Washington--23 in that facility alone. Take that times thousands of nursing homes and you can see the problem.

The USA has fewer hospital beds per 1,000 residents than Italy, where hospitals are already overwhelmed. The other problem is that many rural hospitals -- serving large areas-- have closed. Those residents have to travel large distances for care.

This model shows the US hospitals will become overwhelmed by April 1.

https://medium.com/@trentmc0/when-does- ... 6cf2835f89

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1186475100

The other problem is that most nursing home workers get very low wages. They can't afford to miss any work, so they come to work sick and infect the residents. Most nursing homes are very understaffed anyway.

[brewcrew1000]

I don't think some people realize this but I believe all flus and common colds are a cornavirus. This is a different strand of that is covid19

[kboish]

The term "flu" has become synonymous with seasonal illness, but it comes from the distinct Influenza family of viruses, which is separate and distinct from the Corona family of viruses. Influenza is widely known because of the 1918 pandemic commonly called the Spanish Flu.

But you are correct in that their are currently 4 Corona viruses that regularly/seasonally infect us and cause common cold symptoms, typically upper respiratory type issues like coughing and bronchitis.

The fact that there are already 4 common Corona viruses doesn't get us off the hook here. You'll notice people keep referring to it as a novel strain of the Corona virus. Thats because it has different and unknown characteristics compared to its family. The danger for us as a population is the year when the novel virus strain introduces itself to the population. No one has immunity yet. We have no medical responses or vaccines ready. The best we can do is quarantine and treat symptoms. Think about the Spanish Flu. It ended because you either died, or you developed immunity to a level where it was basically a seasonal cold. So eventually this COVID-19 will probably just become another seasonal virus that causes the common cold, but there will be.... an adjustment period.

[earthling]

My Brooklyn brother just returned from Rome overnight to JFK. He said his temperature was checked before boarding in Rome but no COVID test. Many travelers intentionally take fever reducers to attempt to bypass so hard to say how effective that is anyway.

When he arrived at JFK he was not tested or temp checked even though in Italy over 2 weeks. No discussion to self-quarantine other than given a form about recommending it (not required). Was otherwise no different than any customs return.

He doesn't have any symptoms but is self-quarantining for 2 weeks. And will also try to get a test just to know. Will be interesting to see if he can get the test with no symptoms.

[TrolliKC]

So if all these business end up filing insurance claims, will companies like AIG end up needing a bailout? There is no way they have this amount of money to cover all these claims

only limited forms of business insurance could potentially cover coronavirus-related claims. i suspect the insurers will be okay.

We could start selling Pandemic Disease Business Interruption Insurance

[kboish]

This seems to be the most telling graph. Cases increasing at approximately 33%. Doubling roughly every 2- 2.5 days. Its tough to comprehend exponential/logarithmic growth, but we are all following the same trajectory as Italy. All except those that initiated intense testing and isolation early on (Korea) or those that are under counting (probably Japan...and may even us).

But, there is a possibility that the seasonal change in weather will help us. Uncertain at this point.

[Highlander]

The term "flu" has become synonymous with seasonal illness, but it comes from the distinct Influenza family of viruses, which is separate and distinct from the Corona family of viruses. Influenza is widely known because of the 1918 pandemic commonly called the Spanish Flu.

But you are correct in that their are currently 4 Corona viruses that regularly/seasonally infect us and cause common cold symptoms, typically upper respiratory type issues like coughing and bronchitis.

The fact that there are already 4 common Corona viruses doesn't get us off the hook here. You'll notice people keep referring to it as a novel strain of the Corona virus. Thats because it has different and unknown characteristics compared to its family. The danger for us as a population is the year when the novel virus strain introduces itself to the population. No one has immunity yet. We have no medical responses or vaccines ready. The best we can do is quarantine and treat symptoms. Think about the Spanish Flu. It ended because you either died, or you developed immunity to a level where it was basically a seasonal cold. So eventually this COVID-19 will probably just become another seasonal virus that causes the common cold, but there will be.... an adjustment period.

Virus's that kill generally go extinct pretty quickly because they destroy their host and cannot propagate. What normally happens is that they evolve into a more innocuous virus over time because it's the milder strains that live on to infect again. People do develop immunities but the virus itself changes too.

[kboish]

Thats a good point.

[earthling]

Colorado is breaking out with 72 known cases. Wichita has one (cruise travel related). Of course unknown carriers are likely 3X higher, some estimates are 7X higher nationally.

Open in Incognito/Private tab if you get a paywall. This map seems to be updated more timely than others...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

[earthling]

Looking at global stats, warm weather regions (Indonesia, Malaysia, SE Asia, etc) do have slower growth and far fewer deaths so hopefully a good sign for a summer slowdown in northern hemisphere. But apparently still higher spreading rate than flu in summer conditions. Brazil looks to be fairly high growth for warm weather. Is going to be a long winter for southern hemisphere.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And looking at Florida, which has summer conditions, most of their cases are travel related, not as much community spreading as rest of US (yet). The list has 3 pages...
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/ ... 66171.html

[Highlander]

Colorado is breaking out with 72 known cases. Wichita has one (cruise travel related). Of course unknown carriers are likely 3X higher, some estimates are 7X higher nationally.

Open in Incognito/Private tab if you get a paywall. This map seems to be updated more timely than others...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

If cases are truly 7X the reported number presently, with 41 fatalities and 2000 cases (x 7), the fatality rate drops to a very flu like 0.02%. Of course, the virus has not ran its course for all those cases yet so I expect the rate will be higher than 0.02% but I do suspect the fatality rate will be considerably lower than is currently touted when enough information becomes available. The US first and foremost needs to keep people who are high risk out of harms way.

[earthling]

Yeah agree, the death rate may not be as high, but unknown is unknown. If the 3X factor is correct, would correlate to about 1% death rate. Problem is we'll never have a true known count so those who politicize this will pick the stat that fits their agenda.

And agree, we should be focusing more on those at risk rather than unknown carriers. That is at some point, not shutting down events. If the factor is 7X or higher unknown carriers, should we bother with containment efforts and just focus on at-risk people? Hospital ICU loads in US over next couple of weeks will probably an important indicator to follow (in addition to deaths).

As of now, only 10 are shown in serious/critical condition in US, but who knows how accurate that tracking is...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[DaveKCMO]

Colorado is breaking out with 72 known cases. Wichita has one (cruise travel related). Of course unknown carriers are likely 3X higher, some estimates are 7X higher nationally.

Open in Incognito/Private tab if you get a paywall. This map seems to be updated more timely than others...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

Lots of paywalls going down, specifically the Star and NYT coverage.

[FangKC]

Mayor bans gatherings/events over 50 people for 8 weeks.

https://twitter.com/MayorLucasKC/status ... 01312?s=20

https://fox4kc.com/tracking-coronavirus ... 0-or-more/

[earthling]

Will be interesting to see how tighter restrictions play out for an area not hit hard yet. MO has among fewest known cases, the largest state to have under 10 known cases. Feel for servers in states that have closed restaurants, jobs are being taken away from many living paycheck to paycheck.

Am not particularly optimistic the West can minimize the spread as much as some of Asia has. Many Asian countries tend to value society slightly over individuality and can more easily pull off community compliance. And overall, China didn't contain it as it got out, and now it's re-entering.

Hope shutting down half the planet will be worth it. We are maybe not just shooting ourselves in the foot but possibly cutting off our limbs for something that may not be able to be minimized enough anyway. We could instead be protecting those at risk more directly rather than destroying the economy out of fear of the unknown.

US case map again. Open in private window if a paywall comes up...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

[Major KC Fan]

If you allow the general public to continue to gather in restaurants, bars, etc. then how do you protect the at-risk people that they will come into contact with? My spouse is a transplant patient (5 years!) and I cannot take the risk. Also anyone over 60. Our company has instructed all to stay home for two weeks at least and is continuing to pay as normal.
What is needed is compliance with containment efforts to “flatten the curve” of infection rates and a COORDINATED effort by all government, including federal, state & local to address the economic actions needed to support the economy during this health crisis. Unfortunately we seem to be following the same path that places like Italy took in addressing the epidemic, thus setting the stage for a healthcare system crisis. I’ve heard from health professionals that are on the front lines of this and we are woefully unprepared and more reactive than proactive. Maybe it would have been a good idea to keep the pandemic response team at the federal level staffed and funded instead of cutting it two years ago......

[kboish]

Missouri has done very little testing. I think you will see our numbers spike by the end of the week because of increased testing.

[kboish]

And to be clear, as testing ramps up we should expect to see numbers spike everywhere, not just MO. Nothing will have fundamentally changed, those people are already infected. We will just have situational awareness finally. Which is a good thing. Should/Could have been done 2-6 weeks ago if it was taken seriously. If that were done, people would already be isolating themselves and the spread would have been slower or lessened. Actions we take today (in relation to testing and isolation) are effecting 2 weeks from now, not tomorrow.