COVID19

[earthling]

Bottom line, this doesn't stop until people who can get vaccinated.

^If the case that vax's lose significant efficacy after 5-6 months will be a bit difficult to keep the planet on top of it. Under 15% of planet is fully vaccinated, about half using Sinovac that isn't very effective against Delta. Only about 1% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose. edit: UK doesn't plan to vax those under 18 outside those at risk. Varying approaches per country mostly not working, there's no global unified plan.

Which is why the species will have this new endemic virus, possibly the current virulent Covid Delta or its next worse mutation, for the next several eons of humanity. This is a tragedy for the human species of pretty substantial (once a millennium?) proportions (not a planetary calamity like melting icecaps, because this only appears to affect our species).

^Yeah it comes across as a Debbie Downer/defeatist/alarmist message many don't want to hear on both sides of fence but looking at the bigger global picture, is really difficult to imagine ever getting this under control before a deadlier variant appears unless it somehow putters out on its own.

This is not a great sign from a reported internal CDC document if the case (CNN, WaPo)...

The document -- a slide presentation -- outlines unpublished data that shows fully vaccinated people might spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people.

That conflicts with data for those fully vaccinated recently but based on the Israel study and recent trends of heavily early Pfizer vax'd countries, might be the case for those vax'd several months ago. Several vaxs are clearly great for reducing hospitalization and death (for an unknown period) but maybe not for preventing new strains as earlier advertised, at least not on a global scale with a limited timeline window.

Am planning to take followup Pfizer boosters if needed either way as even short term protection is worth it to me (and relatives I'm caregiving for). Masking up again too.

[FangKC]

I’m An ICU Doctor And I Cannot Believe The Things Unvaccinated Patients Are Telling Me

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/icu-doct ... s_politics

[aknowledgeableperson]

I think the real problem is that the CDC has been dogshit on this. Their messaging has been, essentially, that the vaccine makes you all but bulletproof, instead of that it is just one piece of a broader overall harm-reduction strategy, which is why people now seem to regard anything less than total protection against even asymptomatic infection as a failure. They never should have issued the guidance that vaccinated people no longer needed to mask, and, having issued that guidance anyway, they should have rescinded it long before they did. Their decision a few months ago to simply not track breakthrough infections unless they result in hospitalization is responsible for the dearth of data in this country about how effective the vaccines actually are at preventing infection, which -- just as when Trump complained that testing was the reason for all the bad numbers -- was probably precisely their intention (some states, like Virginia, are tracking this, which is better than nothing). Anecdotally, I'm seeing people who are now regarding the pandemic as just an issue for all those Republicans who have ignorantly chosen not to vaccinate, no need to re-adopt precautions like masking because fuck them anyway, which is not only grotesque on its face but also misses the (small, but real) risk that still remains for vaccinated people themselves, as well as the larger risk for populations that cannot be vaccinated (e.g., children) or for whom the vaccine might not be effective (e.g., the immunosuppressed). So it's been an all-around terrible job by the CDC, which seems to have been weighing political calculations more heavily than public health concerns, something for which Trump and others (rightfully) caught shit, but now that Uncle Joe is the one fumbling the response, the pandemic is "over" and nobody really cares anymore. Back to brunch, everyone -- at an indoor restaurant, and no mask required if you're vaccinated!

Yes, the CDC has made some mistakes in how it has messaged Covid from the very beginning. But remember it is learning as time moves on and different variants come into play. Just over the past 4-6 weeks the CDC and other health organizations have learned a lot about the Delta variant (and the many vaccines) and how it behaves and how it affects those vaccinated and not vaccinated. We are still in a learning process about this virus and we don't know what we don't know about it.

One thing for sure Covid-19 and its many variants will forever be around, much like the flu, measles, chicken pox, polio, and many other illnesses. And we will learn more about it as time marches on.

[flyingember]

https://acasignups.net/21/08/11/us-covi ... -over-time

Interesting maps on partisan lean and covid vaccine uptake
Basically, if your county voted for Trump people aren’t getting vaccinated

As of Aug 10, the 50% fully vaccinated point is 40% Trump voters.
Of course, kids can’t be but it strongly shows Trump voters are the cause of the continued pandemic.

One thing that’s interesting is it appears this wasn’t nearly the case early on. Over 65 were more likely to get the vaccine in the early months.


Christian County voted 75% for Trump
30% vaccinated but 70% 65 and older

There’s been 126 deaths in 11871 cases, 1.06%. At 45 cases per day that’s an average of one death every 2.5 days, and if the chart lines up with this county, it’s a Republican under 65 who are dieing.

I would not be surprised to find that under 65 the overwhelming majority of those vaccinated voted for Biden.

The part that gets me, there’s no way that people 65+ aren’t more Republican than the population as a whole

The majority of Republican voters are over 50 nationwide
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... oalitions/

So there’s this deep divide where if you’re over 65 you likely got vaccinated. If you’re under 65 you have to be Democrat to get vaccinated.

[flyingember]

So I completely forgot something in the equation again.

Consider covid months ago to today
The majority of deaths were in cities early on. Cities have hospitals.
Rural areas have hospital closures.

Nationwide, heart attack deaths went up 32,000 in 2020. An overworked hospital isn’t available for emergencies. If ambulances are transporting covid patients, they aren’t available for emergencies.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... u-n1270260

If rural republicans are more likely to get sick, it’s far worse for them. The resources aren’t equal to cities. Imagine being a sick kid and the closest good pediatric center is 4 hours away.

[FangKC]

Almost every hospital medical director being interviewed is mentioning that where they are overwhelmed with COVID cases, it means that anyone who has a stroke, heart attack, or is in a car accident is put at even greater risk simply because ERs can't handle the load, and there aren't intensive care beds available.

So yes, critically-ill or injured people, who don't have COVID, might die unnecessarily because people are neglecting, or refusing, to get vaccinated.

[im2kull]

Almost every hospital medical director being interviewed is mentioning that where they are overwhelmed with COVID cases, it means that anyone who has a stroke, heart attack, or is in a car accident is put at even greater risk simply because ERs can't handle the load, and there aren't intensive care beds available.

So yes, critically-ill or injured people, who don't have COVID, might die unnecessarily because people are neglecting, or refusing, to get vaccinated.

Hospitals are for profit businesses. As such they run tight on bed usage since it's to their advantage to have each bed filled, for maximum profit. Knowing where Covid patients are being kept is important too, because they're not mixed in with other patients. The ICU may have 9/10 beds filled, but the Covid unit may only have 3/10 beds filled. Context is everything.

Nonetheless, lets look at some actual data from a Covid ridden area and see how bad the bed availability is. KC area hospitals are no dice for public information, but luckily the state of Montana has much better public records availability. Jackson County Missouri has a 7 day average of 33 new cases per 100K population (Globalepidemics.org). Cascade County MT has a 7 day avg of 44 (25% higher than Jackson County MO), and their main hospital, Benefis, is the 3rd largest in that state.. so lets take a look under the hood and see just how big of an impact Covid has had.

https://dphhs.mt.gov/assets/publichealt ... 092021.pdf

As of August 9, Benefis has 202 of 240 beds (85%) in use. 14 beds (7%) in use by Covid patients. 20 of 21 ICU beds (95%) in use. 2 ICU Covid patients. 4 of 26 (15%) ventilators in use. Only 1 is a Covid patient.

It does appear that the hospital is quite full, but it does NOT appear to have much of anything to do with the 2 Covid patients in the ICU. If any critically-ill or injured people, who don't have COVID, die unnecessarily because of hospital capacity.. then something else is to blame.

[flyingember]

Hospitals are for profit businesses.

It's much easier to be wrong than to spend the time to be right.

https://www.childrensmercy.org/ways-to- ... questions/
They're a nonprofit

https://www.tmcgiving.org/our-mission/
They're a nonprofit

I didn't look past two but it shows you that many are businesses run to make a profit, many aren't.

[FangKC]

Most medical directors being interviewed on TV about being overwhelmed are in the COVID hot zones in states like Florida, Texas, and Mississippi. So yes, context is everything. Not many medical directors being interviewed in Montana right now.

A hospital in Mississippi is putting patients in a parking garage.

Field hospital opens in parking garage as Mississippi sees 'skyrocketing' crush of COVID patients

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/field-hos ... d=79433418

Houston runs out of hospital beds as COVID-19 surges across South

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQQ6H1wb1Io

Patients waiting hours for beds as hospitals max out capacity

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- As hospitalizations continue to increase, the Houston area is seeing a real impact on wait times at emergency rooms.

In fact, ABC13 found hundreds of patients have been admitted to the hospital but were left waiting for a bed.

According to the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council (SETRAC), in a 25-county region in southeast Texas, 469 patients were admitted to the hospital on Sunday, but didn't have a general bed.

There were also 53 ICU patients who were admitted, but they also didn't have a bed immediately available.
...
He said in one case, a patient was left waiting for five and a half hours on a stretcher, inside an ambulance just waiting for a bed.

"That's an egregious incident. It doesn't serve our patients well. It doesn't serve our EMTs well," said Pena.

The chief said it's taking about 10% longer to transfer patients from the ambulance to the hospital.

"The downstream effect that it causes is significant," he said. "A 5-, 10-, 15-minute delay, or an additional delay, in transferring a patient means that unit is not available to service the next emergency call. So what happens is when the next call comes, the ambulance that's responding to those new calls are coming from further away."
...
https://abc13.com/covid-hospitals-houst ... /10941386/

Local doctors warn patients wait for beds, transferred out of state, surgeries delayed

KANSAS CITY, MO (KCTV) -- Area doctors are sound the alarm that hospitals are stretched too thin and are now transferring some patients out of state.
...

https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/local ... 75496.html

[shaffe]

Hospitals are for profit businesses. As such they run tight on bed usage since it's to their advantage to have each bed filled, for maximum profit. Knowing where Covid patients are being kept is important too, because they're not mixed in with other patients. The ICU may have 9/10 beds filled, but the Covid unit may only have 3/10 beds filled. Context is everything.

Nonetheless, lets look at some actual data from a Covid ridden area and see how bad the bed availability is. KC area hospitals are no dice for public information, but luckily the state of Montana has much better public records availability. Jackson County Missouri has a 7 day average of 33 new cases per 100K population (Globalepidemics.org). Cascade County MT has a 7 day avg of 44 (25% higher than Jackson County MO), and their main hospital, Benefis, is the 3rd largest in that state.. so lets take a look under the hood and see just how big of an impact Covid has had.

https://dphhs.mt.gov/assets/publichealt ... 092021.pdf

As of August 9, Benefis has 202 of 240 beds (85%) in use. 14 beds (7%) in use by Covid patients. 20 of 21 ICU beds (95%) in use. 2 ICU Covid patients. 4 of 26 (15%) ventilators in use. Only 1 is a Covid patient.

It does appear that the hospital is quite full, but it does NOT appear to have much of anything to do with the 2 Covid patients in the ICU. If any critically-ill or injured people, who don't have COVID, die unnecessarily because of hospital capacity.. then something else is to blame.

I'm going to assume that it was an unintentional oversight instead of willful ignorance on your part, but local hospital data is freely available at https://marc2.org/covidhub/. The last day all 27 hospitals on that tracker reported data was August 12, and on that date 13% of available adult hospital beds and 30% of ICU beds were occupied by COVID patients. Total bed availability was just under 30% while ICU bed availability was only 18%. Also consider the possibility that an "available" bed may not be a "staffed" bed.

I'd really like to assume unintentional oversight on your part, but when you start your premise talking about percentages and then use raw numbers to compare 2 ICU patients in Wyoming to whatever the KC region might be saying I have to say you lose a lot of credibility.

[flyingember]

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... by_county/

This post has a chart of covid by voting percentage nationwide
Leaving out the middle 40-60 group, Republican voting counties have twice the rate nationally at the end of August.

As expected, that wasn’t the case in January. Only the most Democratic counties were doing that much better. So this shows the impact of vaccination. The 2/3 Democrat counties went from ~80% the rate of Republican majority counties to ~50% the rate.

So assuming this is the same in Missouri and is the same ratio on the average for all covid impacts the death rate is 36 per day.
For 24 Republicans to 12 Democrats dieing per day

So over 90 days that’s 2160 Republicans to 1080 Democrats.

Just more evidence that the most conservative voters are dieing, slowly shifting future election results little by little.
The major impact will be seen if the rate goes up for people age 20-30 before they have kids. A rural community with fewer kids from conservative families will see quicker long-term demographic changes. Even more middle ground republicans taking over will have a big impact. As has been proven, it’s not the big elections that will change, it’s the small ones that don’t have vote spreads of more than a few dozen like your small town councils or school boards.

[bones.25]

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... by_county/

This post has a chart of covid by voting percentage nationwide
Leaving out the middle 40-60 group, Republican voting counties have twice the rate nationally at the end of August.

As expected, that wasn’t the case in January. Only the most Democratic counties were doing that much better. So this shows the impact of vaccination. The 2/3 Democrat counties went from ~80% the rate of Republican majority counties to ~50% the rate.

So assuming this is the same in Missouri and is the same ratio on the average for all covid impacts the death rate is 36 per day.
For 24 Republicans to 12 Democrats dieing per day

So over 90 days that’s 2160 Republicans to 1080 Democrats.

Just more evidence that the most conservative voters are dieing, slowly shifting future election results little by little.
The major impact will be seen if the rate goes up for people age 20-30 before they have kids. A rural community with fewer kids from conservative families will see quicker long-term demographic changes. Even more middle ground republicans taking over will have a big impact. As has been proven, it’s not the big elections that will change, it’s the small ones that don’t have vote spreads of more than a few dozen like your small town councils or school boards.

That makes me think of this https://youtu.be/c6eSPWaUsgY

[flyingember]

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... by_county/

This post has a chart of covid by voting percentage nationwide
Leaving out the middle 40-60 group, Republican voting counties have twice the rate nationally at the end of August.

As expected, that wasn’t the case in January. Only the most Democratic counties were doing that much better. So this shows the impact of vaccination. The 2/3 Democrat counties went from ~80% the rate of Republican majority counties to ~50% the rate.

So assuming this is the same in Missouri and is the same ratio on the average for all covid impacts the death rate is 36 per day.
For 24 Republicans to 12 Democrats dieing per day

So over 90 days that’s 2160 Republicans to 1080 Democrats.

Just more evidence that the most conservative voters are dieing, slowly shifting future election results little by little.
The major impact will be seen if the rate goes up for people age 20-30 before they have kids. A rural community with fewer kids from conservative families will see quicker long-term demographic changes. Even more middle ground republicans taking over will have a big impact. As has been proven, it’s not the big elections that will change, it’s the small ones that don’t have vote spreads of more than a few dozen like your small town councils or school boards.

That makes me think of this https://youtu.be/c6eSPWaUsgY

I agree it's especially disturbing when what the Onion posts comes true, which has already happened around Covid

https://www.indy100.com/offbeat/trump-c ... ke-9483601

The summary of that article, they posted an article with this title a month before he suggested bleach as a cure

Man Just Buying One Of Every Cleaning Product In Case Trump Announces It’s Coronavirus Cure

[flyingember]

He doesn't quote his source, but here's a claim the Republican death rate nationally is 5x the Democrat death rate
https://twitter.com/neiltyson/status/14 ... 97026?s=20


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One big aspect, redistricting is based on 2020 numbers. Districts will include Republicans who passed and Democrats who didn't in ever more skewed numbers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... /index.htm
In August Males died 1.3x more than females
July, 1.25x
Jume 1.19x
May 1.25x

More women vote than men and women vote Democrat more than men, 12% more.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... ification/

confirmed deaths are 2.52 % of men with covid and 1.9% of women with covid.
https://globalhealth5050.org/the-sex-ge ... USA#search

https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race
here's a good site for stats on race through early March

Of the more than 520,000 cumulative U.S. deaths catalogued in this Color of Coronavirus update, these are the numbers of lives lost by group: Asian (17,747), Black (73,236), Indigenous (5,477), Latino (89,071), Pacific Islander (830) and White Americans (299,915).

white deaths made up 57.5% of the first year

https://www.pewresearch.org/2020/09/23/ ... lectorate/
whites are majority republican, no other race is.

whites turn out in higher percentages to vote so on the average more white deaths is a voter than non-white deaths

most electoral demographic changes back to 2000 is in non-white voters becoming a greater percentage. so white deaths change the electoral map in a bigger way

Overall, the death rate, or more correctly the unvaccinated rate, benefits Democrats.

-------------------------------------
There's always economic opportunity in chaos too.

There's stories of people retiring early.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/09/the-pan ... ement.html

Some 28.6 million boomers said they were now out of the workforce due to retirement as of the third quarter of 2020, out of total national cohort of about 71.6 million. That is 3.2 million more than those who said they were retired during the same period in 2019, according to a Pew Research report.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-of-covid

Much like the U.S. economy’s so-called K-shaped recovery, the pandemic is treating the affluent differently, empowering them to leave corporate life early. Others who lost jobs had to delay retirement, or grew discouraged and retired before they were ready.

The affluent had the better paying jobs of course and that's creating opportunity for others down market.

The male workforce is higher. 68% of men work to 56% of women.

College educated workers are more likely to be women now with women as 55% of undergrad students. So women are more likely to be able to get a better job than men, but not universally

This is just one example of a fast food restaurant losing it's entire staff. The comments echo the original post. The retail employment market is most likely to be upended and that matches the retirement post that says the well off recovered quicker
https://old.reddit.com/r/funny/comments ... s_its_end/

So many stories of job openings that can't be filled are low wage jobs. The well off owner of a franchise needs to raise wages and provide benefits in this job market.

3.2 million people retiring in 2020 is like every worker at Walmart and Amazon retiring all at once.

I would expect we'll see places that don't pay well decreasing in number and places that can raise wages gain an advantage.

One possible outcome, retail unions will be in a stronger position in 2022 than in 2019.

[flyingember]

Some ERs in Oklahoma are so backed up that gunshot victims couldn’t get help.

Because of ivermectin overdoses

https://www.insider.com/oklahomas-emerg ... tin-2021-9

I’m expected this antivax and anti mask group to have a higher death rate than the general public but the number of weird causes has been stunning from bleach to horse dewormer

I keep receiving spam texts and thinking, “you have to be stupid to fall for this”
And that’s the point, they’re designed so only some who is stupid responds. That’s their target.

What’s the odds that all these fake cures and anti-mask crusades are started with a few people playing with conservatives because they know that stupid people will spread misinformation? It doesn’t seem likely but it’s not improbable.

[flyingember]

Wow, this is going to be a culture clash. An NFL team is requiring proof of vaccination to go to home games

https://www.allegiantstadium.com/news/d ... nt-stadium

[flyingember]

This pandemic is shifting socially. It’s no longer an over 65 disease. Over 65 92% have at least one vaccination shot.
It’s turning into a family disease.

There’s comments like this becoming more and more common.

My cousin who is a doctor had been slogging in the covid ward since last year said entire families have died from covid. They can't figure out whom to contact to claim the bodies. Cases of parents dying leaving orphans with no living relatives. It's horrifying.

A nurse over at r/nursing referred to Covid as a "household disease" because they often will lose a patient and discover there is no immediate family to notify because they have all already died of Covid.

The CDC forecasts continued death rate increases for at least several more weeks
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... eklydeaths

[herrfrank]

This pandemic is shifting socially. It’s no longer an over 65 disease. Over 65 92% have at least one vaccination shot.
It’s turning into a family disease.

There’s comments like this becoming more and more common.

My cousin who is a doctor had been slogging in the covid ward since last year said entire families have died from covid. They can't figure out whom to contact to claim the bodies. Cases of parents dying leaving orphans with no living relatives. It's horrifying.

A nurse over at r/nursing referred to Covid as a "household disease" because they often will lose a patient and discover there is no immediate family to notify because they have all already died of Covid.

The CDC forecasts continued death rate increases for at least several more weeks
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... eklydeaths

One concern I have is that the Delta wave has become so politicized, researchers are consequently focused on the cultural gaps (anti-vaxxers, mistrustful-of-government people, etc.) rather than possible medical explanations.

In 2020 early during Covid first phase, there was some analysis that blood type (A, B, AB, or O) (but not rhesus factor) may have a strong correlation with susceptibility to serious disease from Covid. Couldn't that also explain why families or clans are dying -- much more analytical research would be helpful, with minimized political discussion around the disease. Same for Ivermectin -- the human formulation was heavily used in Peru, Chile, and Spain, and El Pais (big Madrid newspaper, not right-wing by any stretch) ran a 10,000 word article by their science editor citing several studies asserting the drug was helpful. One study was later indicted, not for factual reasons but rather that one of the contributors copied his data from another scientist -- again, not great, BUT WAS THE DATA WRONG or just plagiarized ?

Perhaps they were wrong, but I want to see factual evidence, not stories about rural folks consuming the formulation for horses (which may be chemically different -- who knows -- this all requires dispassionate exposition).

[flyingember]

I would love to see real studies on if these drugs do or don’t help but as you said, politics got in the way.

I have no interest in seeing children suffer and want to be wrong on the stupidity of taking certain drugs.

Things are to the point I don’t think the remaining unvaccinated would listen to someone medically even if they said the horse drug has a better formula that would save their life.

One of the stupidest things ever was a group of influential Christians ever bringing politics into faith. I don’t think religious leaders understand what they unleashed. Trump was elected pre-covid but they needed to push the vaccine hard as being what conservatives do, and didn’t. And that one action is going to have influence for decades.

[Riverite]

I would love to see real studies on if these drugs do or don’t help but as you said, politics got in the way.

I have no interest in seeing children suffer and want to be wrong on the stupidity of taking certain drugs.

Things are to the point I don’t think the remaining unvaccinated would listen to someone medically even if they said the horse drug has a better formula that would save their life.

One of the stupidest things ever was a group of influential Christians ever bringing politics into faith. I don’t think religious leaders understand what they unleashed. Trump was elected pre-covid but they needed to push the vaccine hard as being what conservatives do, and didn’t. And that one action is going to have influence for decades.

There is a fraction of conservatism that has quite literally turned into a death cult. The right should absolutely have to reckon for what they have unleashed on the world. Forget working with them on climate change they won’t even takes something that helps themselves if it is for societal benefit