COVID19

Come here to talk about topics that are not related to development, or even Kansas City.
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KCtoBrooklyn
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Re: COVID19

Post by KCtoBrooklyn »

brewcrew1000 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 12:44 pm I know someone who is a bartender making 900 a week on unemployment more than he would make working at the bar
I think there is an issue with syntax there. I assume you are saying the bartender makes $900 per week from unemployment, which is more than he would make at the bar. Not that he makes $900 more than his usual weekly income.

I believe the extra $600 weekly unemployment payments are set to expire in July. Once that happens, people won't be making more on unemployment.
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Re: COVID19

Post by brewcrew1000 »

^Correct. Forgot a semicolon or comma
earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

"Great Depression 2020? The unofficial U.S. jobless rate is at least 20%—or worse"
About of 25% of the workforce is unemployed or underemployed
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/great ... =home-page

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flyingember
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Re: COVID19

Post by flyingember »

I'll work off 26.5 million jobs = 15%

So there's 176 million jobs right now, normally.
In a country of 328 million people

There's 73 million children under 18, most don't work, and 49 million seniors =138 million so 190 million (roughly) working.

So there's 14 million people not included in this statistic, or about 5% of the country.


So we would need to multiply those numbers by 0.95 to get closer to reality.
earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

April 19...
earthling wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:19 am Vermont will start loosening restrictions starting Monday for workplaces. They are doing it more cautiously than Texas. VT requires masks in public for workers statewide but apparently not mandated yet for all, just suggested. Not a requirement in TX either statewide. They need to add that.
https://www.wcax.com/content/news/Gov-S ... 21071.html

Vermont currently ranks 17th in deaths per million and TX ranks 41st.
May 11...
Despite VT and TX earlier with opening up lockdowns VT now ranks 25th in deaths/million compared to 17th before loosening up. VT requires masks in workplace and urges it for public.

TX still ranks 41st. And even though FL has high density of elderly/nursing homes and looser lockdown restrictions than MO, MO has recently passed FL in deaths/million.

Sort Deaths/1M by clicking on the header...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

It takes 3-8 weeks to die after getting infected so not sure what you're trying to prove by posting about death tolls 20 days after opening up. The obvious inference to draw from the numbers you've posted is that Vermont was on a better trajectory than the country as a whole before they opened up.
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Looking at patterns for several countries from actual data (not a forum poster), death surges often occur around two weeks after surges in cases. I know of an elderly person who died days after showing signs of having it.

VT started to improve after requiring masks despite opening up. TX and FL had looser restrictions before opening up. Try again.
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Re: COVID19

Post by kas1 »

Looking at actual data (not a forum poster), cases don't show up in statistics the instant a person becomes infected. They show up after a person gets tested, which is far from being immediate, especially in a place that's being overwhelmed. And infections don't surge the instant there is a change in behavior -- that's not how exponential growth works.

But in the case of Vermont it's pretty much moot since they were reporting less than 10 cases per day as of 3 weeks ago. At that level they should be able to keep things under control.
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Yes, VT had under control possibly due to encouraging mask use, which most states have not. Opening up with continued mask use/testing has kept it under control.

FL has had fewer lockdown restrictions than MO since March breakout yet MO recently passed FL in deaths/million. So the gap between cases to deaths isn't as relevant to any explanation.

We'll see what happens over next few weeks with each state taking a different approach.
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Re: COVID19

Post by flyingember »

The varying levels of testing and reporting from the building level on up of course has an impact on the numbers.

Florida might be far higher and we don't know.

Sadly, states that report badly will respond badly.
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^If possible there does need to be a national standard to define cause of death as it varies.
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Re: COVID19

Post by grovester »

A number of states (FLA, TX) that are "open" have large cities still under stay at home orders, so flat state numbers can be deceiving.
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^Yeah, the three major Miami counties are still in lockdown, though FL has many largish metros that have loosened up. Tampa area is bigger than STL and Orlando bigger than KC metro. Jacksonville opened their beaches 3 weeks ago and others have been opening since.

Miami metro represents under 30% of state population and KC/STL areas represent approx 50% state population. So higher % of MO is and has been in stricter lockdown than FL yet MO death rate appears to now be slightly higher than FL. MO had stricter lockdown weeks before FL. FL took way too long to act and started to open early yet in middle of US pack for death rate.
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Re: COVID19

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Re: COVID19

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Unreleased White House report shows coronavirus rates spiking in heartland communities
...
The 10 top areas recorded surges of 72.4 percent or greater over a seven-day period compared to the previous week, according to a set of tables produced for the task force by its data and analytics unit. They include Nashville, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; and — atop the list, with a 650 percent increase — Central City, Kentucky.

On a separate list of "locations to watch," which didn't meet the precise criteria for the first set: Charlotte, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska; Minneapolis; Montgomery, Alabama; Columbus, Ohio; and Phoenix. The rates of new cases in Charlotte and Kansas City represented increases of more than 200 percent over the previous week, and other tables included in the data show clusters in neighboring counties that don't form geographic areas on their own, such as Wisconsin's Kenosha and Racine counties, which neighbor each other between Chicago and Milwaukee.
...
The spiking infection rates suggest that the pandemic is spreading quickly outside major coastal population centers that were early hot spots, while governors of some of the states that are home to new hot spots are following Trump's advice to relax stay-at-home restrictions.

Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Tennessee, for example, have no stay-at-home orders, according to a task force map. In other states where restrictions are being put in place or repealed at the local level, some counties are experiencing surges. Dallas and Fort Bend counties in Texas, where decisions are made locally, are on a "locations to watch" list because they have recorded increases in numbers of cases of 116.8 percent and 64.8 percent, respectively.
...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white ... eEljfIBDCQ
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Re: COVID19

Post by FangKC »

If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05 ... study-says
earthling
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

^MO, Iowa and Minnesota all passed up Florida in death rate recently despite FL starting lockdown later and releasing sooner. Sort by Deaths/Million

MN made an effort with contact tracing in April but infections took off in May. Masks are working for several countries that have mandated them (Austria, Czechia, Slovakia). Maybe time to make them a minimum requirement in US but many 'freedom protesters' will unlikely comply.
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Re: COVID19

Post by FangKC »

earthling wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 8:41 am Sweden cases/deaths are decreasing despite never having much of a lockdown...
ttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Some attribute it to being a relatively healthier country with relatively higher personal responsibility. Probably not a model for US.

Sweden's death rate per million is more than three times that of Denmark--which implemented stricter measures.

Sweden's total number of reported cases is 26,670;
Sweden's death rate per million is 322.

Denmark's total number of reported cases is 10,591.
Denmark's death rate per million is 92.

Sweden Revises Covid Strategy After Deaths of Elderly Spiral
...
The Danish Way

But the strategy remains controversial. Within the Nordic region, contrasts have been drawn between Sweden and Denmark, which opted for a strict lockdown early on.

Denmark is now in the second phase of reopening its economy. What’s more, recent data even suggest its infection rate is falling, and its death rate so far is less than a third Sweden’s.

Denmark opened large swathes of its economy in mid-April, including primary schools and hairdressing salons. This week, Danish shops opened for the first time in two months, with museums and cinemas set to follow.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... wn-relaxed
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

The Sweden risky approach was to oddly accept more up front, yet cases/deaths are now surprisingly showing signs of declining...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

Might not continue but would expect it to still be rising given almost no restrictions. Requiring masks probably should've been part of approach.
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Re: COVID19

Post by earthling »

Coronavirus: Czechs so far avoid worst of COVID-19 despite lenient lockdown
The Czech Republic has so far managed to escape the worst of COVID-19 and it's all been done with outdoor life continuing relatively normally.

That's despite one of the facets of life under lockdown being the relative freedom to engage in outdoor activities, even though the government advises to the contrary.

Come 5 pm most evenings, parks and public squares in the eastern city of Olomouc, the country’s sixth-largest city and situated in one of the worst affected regions for the epidemic, are busy with people cycling, jogging or taking in a crisp spring sun. Groups sit around on the grass, sipping on beers sold at two busy outdoor cafes. A fortnightly farmers market has restarted in the city’s main park.

However, the Czech government’s main proviso to outdoors activity was that people must wear face masks, something that most Czechs agree with and have stuck to. A recent National Pandemic Alarm survey found that around 75 per cent of Czechs support this measure, making it the most praised government policy.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/08/cor ... t-lockdown
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