brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:37 am
Why is the market still going up, makes no sense. I am tempted to put some June $200 puts out on SPY
I'll assume you mean the DOW or S&P Indexes. An index's value right now is based on the financial stability of the businesses in the index in the short term.
With so many businesses in trouble and a goal of making money off trouble, an index stock will have value as they're generally really stable businesses.
McDonalds will do better in a period people need to spend less money. More people will eat there.
Walmart like most grocery stores had crazy business, this would look good on a quarterly report.
brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:37 am
Why is the market still going up, makes no sense. I am tempted to put some June $200 puts out on SPY
Where else is there to put your money? It’s the best long term play right now.
There is no credit crisis yet during this disturbance and most major businesses have been able to tap and expand lines of credit (this is good for development too). Overall, savings are up which will allow banks to lend/invest more. For those working from home, a lot of expenditures have been killed (movies, vacation, restaurants) but paychecks keep flowing in. Corona itself is peaking this week which has made investors hopeful that the economy can start to reopen in May/Summer.
799 known COVID deaths in New York in the last 24 hours. New York state has more cases now than any country in the world except for the greater United States. 7,067 total known deaths so far in New York state. That number is likely much higher. Experts say New York was seeded by coronovirus from travelers coming back from Europe -- not Asia -- based on genome testing of virus. Trump shut down travel from China (Jan. 31), but didn't shut down travel from Europe at the same time (mid-March). Still, Americans have still been allowed return from China and Europe, and the restrictions have been laughably weak.
355 inmates and staff infected in the Cook County jail in Chicago.
More than 16,800,000 Americans have filed for unemployment.
In one nursing home in Virginia, 39 residents have died.
Family gatherings were often "seeding events" for virus spread.
31 percent of Americans could not afford to pay rent in April.
This says NY state has more new cases (over 10K) than last several days. Maybe because of more testing but the positive rate is about 38%, which is way high, upper end of hotspot territory.
CDC officials tracked large Chicago outbreak to family gatherings
A case study on contact tracing in Chicago showed how one person who showed up to a family funeral with mild symptoms of the coronavirus set off a chain reaction of infections to 16 more family members, including three deaths, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.
...
Picking off the rent statistic, they cited last year and the previous month both being about 18-19%. Using that as a baseline, the number went up about 50%. Not everything is corona related...
777 died in the last 24 hours in New York City. Morgues are full. The City is burying dead in mass graves on Hart Island.
34 percent of deaths in NYC are in Latino community.
980 deaths in the last 24 hours in the United Kingdom.
The KC Star reports:
Kansas identified 1,106 COVID-19 cases on Thursday including 263 hospitalizations and 42 deaths.
In Missouri, there have been 3,539 cases and 568 hospitalizations. Seventy-seven people have died.
Per MSN:
COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus, is now the deadliest disease in the United States, killing more people per day than cancer or heart disease.
KCMO cases by zip. Curious that 64112 (Plaza) has a lot of hirise/elevator denser living yet lower in cases. Similarly Manhattan has fewer cases than Bronx/Queens. An indication that social behavior/demographics may have more to do with spreading than density.
My buddy works as a programmer at mayo clinic in Minnesota and just got furloughed for like 3 months with a pay cut coming when he comes back. No patients are going to hospitals getting surgeries, going in for rehab, etc. Will probably have a ripple effect across healthcare with non healthcare staff like IT, HR, Instructional Design, project managers, etc.
I could see layoffs coming at cerner if hospitals need to break contracts or defer payments. I would say people from home are not safe from layoffs either. Lots of big business are going to start realizing they can do just as much with less.
brewcrew1000 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:01 pm
My buddy works as a programmer at mayo clinic in Minnesota and just got furloughed for like 3 months with a pay cut coming when he comes back. No patients are going to hospitals getting surgeries, going in for rehab, etc. Will probably have a ripple effect across healthcare with non healthcare staff like IT, HR, Instructional Design, project managers, etc.
I could see layoffs coming at cerner if hospitals need to break contracts or defer payments. I would say people from home are not safe from layoffs either. Lots of big business are going to start realizing they can do just as much with less.
Yes, and I think there will be a fairly big market correction because of it. Lots of people at home anticipating they have a job when this is over will be surprised to be permanently cut. Purchasing will not jump back to where it was pre virus. We are far from back to normal, no matter what the latest stock market rally tells you.
The United States now has the most dead from COVID-19 in the world -- more than 20,000.
783 deaths in New York City in the last 24 hours. 8,627 dead in New York state.
NYC mayor De Blasio says schools will remain closed for the remainder of the school term. Cuomo says decision has not been made.
Los Angeles extends stay-at-home order to May 15 and mandatory mask order for those in public.
New hot zones have popped up in Maryland (1,500 new cases in last 24 hours, and more than 200 people have died) and Georgia.
Texas requires 14-day quarantine for air passengers arriving from many major US cities.
Three case clusters in Kansas from church gatherings.
First round of stimulus payments have gone out.
Long, long lines of cars at the nation's food banks.
USC is testing 10,000 healthy volunteers for antibodies to COVID-19 to test program to return to work.
Pope marks beginning of Easter in empty St. Peter's Basilica.
Kansas Supreme Court meets Saturday to rule on the overturning of Gov. Kelly's executive order to close public facilities to decide how it applies to churches. No decision has been made yet.
Unemployment claims may jump near 7M again (Thursday's report) for potentially a total of about 24M jobs lost/furloughed over last 4 weeks. That would take it down to around 1998/99 level, near 22 years of job gains lost. 6M-7M appears to be all the states can process so may be that range again following week.
The upward trend scenarios shown are very optimistic, assumes job gains are with consumer confidence as high as last 10 years, which is highly unlikely. More likely consumer confidence will be low at varying rates long term.
Each week that goes by with lockdown the hole will dig even deeper so we need to safely release lockdown ASAP.
The below shows potential with the Apr 16 report expecting to show another 6M-7M jobless claims...
normalthings wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:10 pm
Are we really able to return to work if there is no vaccine or treatment? Or is the expectation that we are nearing herd immunity?
Nowhere near herd immunity.
With lots of testing, both swab and antibody you might be able to bring groups of people back to work with masks, distancing, etc.
Testing would have to be on demand with quick turn around, don't see that happening any time soon, maybe by summer?
Yeah, best we can do is manage spread with masks, PPEs and workplace best practices. Will be at least a year to get a vaccine, obviously can't wait that long. Can we even wait another couple weeks? Already in economic suicide territory. The Feds say they can blow up to $5T. Will hit that soon and it's not helping small biz or consumer confidence yet while still adding more debt.
