COVID19

[brewcrew1000]

A doctor in NYC is saying ventilators are making it worse on some patients. Pretty good video

http://thejewishvoice.com/2020/04/ny-em ... pneumonia/

[longviewmo]

Fears coronavirus can reactivate as 51 recovered patients test positive again
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... is-johnson

...or perhaps not re-infections and were false negatives that slipped through, which is no more comforting.

That article says the test they're using is inaccurate 20% of the time - "Currently, the available tests produce one wrong result in five." Testing twice, you'd have a 4% chance of having both tests be wrong. I think that's part of the problem with testing here - I am pretty sure the FDA sets the bar just a bit higher.

[earthling]

^Found these. Claims 30% inaccuracy for tests.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cov ... perts-warn
https://www.livescience.com/covid19-cor ... tives.html

The Chinese research has not yet been peer-reviewed, but anecdotally, Krumholz's colleagues have expressed concern that the false-negative rate may be even higher in the U.S., he wrote.

With the push for 'test test test' as the popular approach, might need double testing to have effective impact. And another reason to ramp up production of PPEs for all, at least existing essential workforce.

[beautyfromashes]

I know local hospital is doing four tests on each potential coronavirus infection to make sure of accuracy. Makes the calls for, “test everyone!” seem misguided.

[FangKC]

According to ABC News, New York City logs highest numbers of deaths so far today. St. John the Divine Cathedral is being converted into a field hospital. It's the nation's largest Gothic hospital.

In Chicago, 72 percent of deaths are African American.

COVID019 has now killed at least 12,021 people in the United States.

The U.S. has more cases than any other country, with over 383,000 people diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new respiratory virus, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

...
The actual numbers are believed to be much higher due to testing shortages...

Detroit's mayor says ""The fatality rate for African Americans is two or three times what it is for Caucasians with this virus. "

NBC News is reporting New York City health department's tally of coronavirus-related deaths reached 3,544 by 5 p.m. ET, a spike of 806 fatalities from the previous report of 2,738 on Monday night.

---

Locally, here is a map of COVID cases. District 3 is being hit the hardest.

[earthling]

Detroit's mayor says ""The fatality rate for African Americans is two or three times what it is for Caucasians with this virus.

Is high with Chicago and New Orleans as well.

According to ABC News, New York City logs highest numbers of deaths so far today. St. John the Divine Cathedral is being converted into a field hospital. It's the nation's largest Gothic hospital.

NY says confirmed cases have been reducing but it's still among highest 'hotspot' territory. So far today if this is tracking change properly NY state roughly performed about 20K tests with about 7K positive, which is ~35% positive rate. Hotspots are generally over US avg, which is about 17% so far today.

MO is only 7%. PA is over 15%. FL under 10%. IL and Indiana over 20%. Louisiana about 25%.

Though if true 20%-30% of tests can show false negatives, all could be even higher unless they double test.

[FangKC]

The reasons why the U.S. isn’t on track to open up

Labs nationwide are overwhelmed by patient samples flooding in as they continue to face a shortage of critical supplies.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/0 ... bh5OLbT4Zo

[earthling]

[grovester]

The people dying now got infected 4 weeks ago before anyone was doing social distancing.

We should see deaths plateau the same way we're seeing new cases leveling off.

[kboish]

What is really interesting is the number of deaths reported in NYC did not include those dying at home, only those dying at hospitals.

https://gothamist.com/news/death-count- ... irmed-ones

This article says that yesterday 727 people died at hospitals in a 24-hour period yesterday. During that same time and exclusive of that number, EMS picked up 280 people who had died already. Prior to the pandemic, NYC EMS averaged only 24 deceased person pickups per day.

So you could guess that the NYC death number to date is under counted at least 25%. Apparently they will soon begin including the "presumed" COVID deaths at home.

[kboish]

Another quote from that article that is disturbing.

“This week it went from critical patients, to just cardiac arrests all over the place,” he said. “We get there and the family’s telling us, ‘We went to the hospital five days ago and they discharged us’ or ‘We stayed home. We called our doctor. We called 311, a tele-doc gave us a prescription for a Z-pack this morning.’ And now they’re dying.”

[earthling]

The reasons why the U.S. isn’t on track to open up

Labs nationwide are overwhelmed by patient samples flooding in as they continue to face a shortage of critical supplies.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/0 ... bh5OLbT4Zo

The antibodies test will be a key tool to get workforce back in addition to PPEs, hopefully can get more accurate sooner than later.

Will be interesting to see what States/Feds determine as appropriate levels to loosen/remove lockdowns. S Korea is at very low levels of spreading but technically not really contained and they still have restrictions. Given S Korea is essentially an isolated island and US has hotspots bouncing around different areas w/out shutting off those regions, it could take the US much longer to get down to S Korea levels.

So at some point me may have to accept living with relatively higher levels of COVID activity and focus on PPEs to keep hospital loads manageable.

[kas1]

Another quote from that article that is disturbing.

“This week it went from critical patients, to just cardiac arrests all over the place,” he said. “We get there and the family’s telling us, ‘We went to the hospital five days ago and they discharged us’ or ‘We stayed home. We called our doctor. We called 311, a tele-doc gave us a prescription for a Z-pack this morning.’ And now they’re dying.”

This might shed some light on that: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... e-to-blame

[DaveKCMO]

Downtown CIDs put portable toilets and handwashing stations out this week, in response to the lack of public restrooms (because everything's COVID closed):

Public Toilet / Handwashing Stations

3rd & Grand - KCATA parking lot
5th & Main - west of City lot
Oppenstein Park - 12th & Walnut
12th & I-35 - by parking lot
Washington Park - Main St.
Washington Park - Grand Blvd.
10th & Main - Metropolex
Library District - 9th & Baltimore
8th & Charlotte - east of viaduct
11th & Charlotte - northeast corner
Ilus Davis Mall - 9th & Oak
Ilus Davis Mall - 11th & Locust
Case Park - 8th & Jefferson
Case Park - 10th & Kirk Drive
6th & Broadway - southeast corner
17th & Main - northwest corner
20th & Grand - northeast corner
29th & Wyandotte - northwest corner
18th & Oak - southwest corner
Oak & 14th St. - northeast corner

[Chris Stritzel]

It's off-topic but on the topic at the same time. I have friends who live on the coasts and one in Chicago. They've all told me different things about the situation ongoing in their parts of the country. I'll summarize.

SAN FRANCISCO: Cases are all over the place. Lockdown is still in effect. People are getting anxious from being inside all the time and many want to return to work out of fear of losing their homes, cars, or being evicted. Some business owners are contemplating not reopening.

SEATTLE: Situation is seemingly winding down. The governor and city government are figuring out ways to reopen the economy, but ever so cautiously. My friend here has been discriminated against for being Chinese, so that's not good.

CHICAGO: He thinks the situation is being made worse by the Mayor threatening to arrest people for going on walks in the parks and on the lakefront. He also thinks that Mayor Lightfoot has done a terrible job at trying to calm the situation by reports of the Mayor going out and about to get her hair done and other things while other people stay at home. He says cases are still rising but most people are sure that Chicago won't be the next NY. Finally, he says that the good thing out of this is that his neighborhood and neighbors have become nicer to each other a more neighborly when before they were pretty rude to each other. So, some unity is forming out of this.

NEW YORK CITY: She says that people are becoming hopeful that they are at their peak. People there are getting anxious but are listening to the stay at home rules because they just want this to be over with.

Now for my observations...

ST. LOUIS: People here seem to be split on staying at home and going about life as normal. A little over 2 weeks after the Stay at Home order was put in place, road traffic is going up as people emerge from their homes. The past 3 days of nice weather have seen neighborhoods on the South and West sides of the City become lively again. Forest Park and Tower Grove Park have been pretty packed with people. However, once you go into the county, it's pretty dead as people remain in their homes or just go and sit out on their porches. Mayor Krewson hasn't closed City parks yet but has allowed the closure of some streets within certain parks to allow for more social distancing space. County Executive Sam Page closed all County Parks and Trails down. Hospitals here aren't overwhelmed. St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County created a Pandemic taskforce made up of SSM Health, BJC, and Mercy Medical organizations. This taskforce predicts a peak in the region in a week or two with hospitals being near capacity, but not overwhelmed.

Grocery Stores here (Schnucks, Dierburgs, Whole Foods, and other smaller ones) have put measures in effect to limit how many people are inside the stores. However, I went to two Schnucks stores today and neither of them were enforcing this. In general, our spirit has been pretty positive throughout this. Small businesses here are doing what they can to stay afloat and many people by carry out to support small businesses. Some, that I have seen, have found loopholes in the government orders that allow people to congregate on outdoor patios and eat. It's strange but also something that I totally expected from some St. Louisans. And the police, who many think should be enforcing the order, don't care and instead go and sit down at those places as well to converse with people or to get something to eat. Honestly, the response in the City Limits has been pretty Libertarian in terms of enforcement compared to the County (who has been slapping fines on any non-essential business that remains open and sending cops all over to address people violating the rules, primarily due to parties and get together). To also boost spirits, there's been a msall band walking through some South City neighborhoods playing music. There's a video on YouTube (linked here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFz3jE2NSRA).

I know people in government here and there are people behind the scenes actively working at reopening the STL by the second Monday in May (although it can change). They're looking at ways to reopen some businesses but have limits on numbers of people inside them. So primarily offices. They intend on keeping the schools closed through the end of the school year. They're also looking at keeping occupancy limited on Metro Bus and MetroLink to seated capacity only, but that will be ultimately up to Bi-State. The government people are also trying to work with the State and CDC to come up with a definitive plan. This could be derailed if the original projection date for a peak (made by the regional pandemic taskforce) is passed and cases grow exponentially.

Most people I talk to here, including myself, that not having a true International Airport anymore was the saving grace STL has. If we were a hub, our numbers would surely be far more than what we are seeing. I also believe this holds true for the Kansas City Airport. Could be wrong but I think not having direct flights to Europe or Asia really helped with keeping the numbers lower here than what they otherwise would've been.

[earthling]

^From my Brooklyn brother. Edited a text he sent yesterday...

The virus is really starting to hit home. [A friend's] boss died from it a few days ago, and that sucked, but I didn't know his boss and he took it very stoically, so I didn't mention it. But tonight [a co-worker] just died from the virus. He was a great guy -- I have so many good memories of him and this really bums me out because he was so full of life and such a solid, decent man. Additional tragic part is people are dying without family or others allowed in the hospital. So they are alone other than medical personnel. And public funerals aren't allowed. And of course people are dying from the normal causes but no funeral for them either. [Another person] I've known for 15 years, but not well personally, died yesterday of a heart attack in his kitchen but will a funeral be allowed? Based on what I know so far, the answer is no. Anyway, sorry to be a downer.

[earthling]

Jobless claims add another 6.6M this week for a total over 16M in three weeks, over 10% of workforce. 6-7M may be all the states are able to take in a week, so likely to be sustained around that level as long as were in lockdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/weekly- ... eport.html

[earthling]

With 16.8M jobs lost/furloughed in last 3 weeks we are approaching 10 years of gains lost, likely to be over 10 years by next week and possibly 6M+ added every week until lockdown lifted.

Scenario 1.0: Optimistically jobs return within a year and continue to grow. Congress/Feds/White House seem to be operating as if this could actually happen. Seems overly optimistic to some economists as consumer confidence likely tanks but we'll see. Throwing $2T every couple weeks at the problem isn't exactly a solution, it's a bandaid that adds more debt.

Scenario 1.1: Could be that nearly all jobs come back fairly soon but consumer confidence and biz performance become poor long term and economy/jobs slowly decline over time.

Scenario 2: Maybe around half the jobs come back, but could take 5+ years for recovery if growth near pace before COVID, might be slower depending on consumer confidence.

Scenario 3: Jobs don't immediately return and growth near pace as before COVID. Would think a good chunk immediately come back but the longer we are in lockdown, the deeper the hole we dig. Possibly 6M+ per week deeper during lockdown.

Endless possibilities of course.

[brewcrew1000]

Why is the market still going up, makes no sense. I am tempted to put some June $200 puts out on SPY

[beautyfromashes]

Why is the market still going up, makes no sense. I am tempted to put some June $200 puts out on SPY

Where else is there to put your money? It’s the best long term play right now.