COVID19

[normalthings]

COVID could have big impacts on the 2020 census. College students are normally supposed to register in the town in which their dorm/school is in. They are still supposed to do that but very few people know that. I know some schools are trying to spread the word but I doubt it will take hold.

I expect Springfield, Columbia, Manhattan, Lawrence, Rolla, etc to take sizable hits. Even Parkville and St. Louis will likely be affected. Kansas City really only has UMKC with most students commuting anyways. I doubt we will have much of a negative effect and may even see a boost with all those college students returning home to KC to get counted.

Kansas City is now estimated to be at around 503,000. STL is in the high 290,000's but could go lower considering most of the 25-30,000 attending school there will not be counted this cycle.

[Chris Stritzel]

Kansas City is now estimated to be at around 503,000. STL is in the high 290,000's but could go lower considering most of the 25-30,000 attending school there will not be counted this cycle.

It wouldn’t be surprising to me to see St. Louis hit 285,000 or so during this census because of this. I never knew that college students were counted in the census, and maybe not many others knew that either. Regardless, it will be a shock to many in STL, and in other places, to see the numbers fall potentially below 290,000 for the first time since 1860-1870.

I’m interested in seeing how other cities and towns in Missouri do that have a lot of college students. Surely it will be brutal for some, especially Columbia.

As you said, KCMO has UMKC, so it shouldn’t be too dramatic of a population shift.

[earthling]

The census often shows a little lower than or around the previous year's estimate so KCMO might still show below 500K. Remember all the census challenges in 2010?

[earthling]

An indicator of next hotspots...

She said Louisiana, where 26% of all tests come back positive, concerns U.S. health officials. Michigan, Connecticut, Indiana, Georgia and Illinois all test positive about 15% of the time.

Non-hotspots tend to show below 10% positive. Though testing rates higher/lower than average per county are a factor.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/white-h ... itive.html

[earthling]

STL City/County showing quite a bit higher known cases than Jackson County per cap. Are testing rates still low in KC area or is KC maybe following stay at home orders better? Density maybe?

https://www.kmbc.com/article/covid-19-m ... y/31900937

[scooterj]

[...] Are testing rates still low in KC area...

I have a local friend who is now nearly recovered after two weeks of experiencing the full run of symptoms. He developed his symptoms after multiple direct contacts with another person who did test positive. But despite showing all the symptoms and having direct contact with a confirmed case, he was denied testing because he "didn't meet the criteria". So I would say testing rates in the KC area are definitely too low.

(BTW his exposure happened the first half of March, just wanted to put that out there before anyone asks if he was violating stay at home.)

[taxi]

[...] Are testing rates still low in KC area...

But despite showing all the symptoms and having direct contact with a confirmed case, he was denied testing because he "didn't meet the criteria".

This is infuriating.

[grovester]

They're hoarding tests for first responders and professional athletes.

This thing will be over before there are enough tests for us proles.

[flyingember]

They're hoarding tests for first responders and professional athletes.

This thing will be over before there are enough tests for us proles.

The proverbial "they"

There's thousands of theys and 99%+ of them aren't doing this.

[herrfrank]

COVID could have big impacts on the 2020 census.

--College students are normally supposed to register in the town in which their dorm/school is in. They are still supposed to do that but very few people know that.--

Are you sure about the noted? -- I think college students are supposed to register wherever they are on April 1, as should be for all people otherwise not at their "domicile" regardless of reason. FWIW, this week we responded that I was here in KC, because I am (as a coronovirus co-locator). Had I been in Florida where I am domiciled, I would have responded there. I think this is how it is supposed to be, definitely was last time it was explained to me by a census worker (during the 1980 census, IIRC taken by hand into a ledger book). I was in college in Massachusetts in April 1990, and I think I responded there even though domiciled in KC.

In the 1940 census, I have a great uncle who shows up twice. His wife was the respondent at their home near Kelso, Washington and she listed him there (I think incorrectly), and then he was also listed in Ridgefield where he was spending a week with his parents at their farm, helping with some task.

Back to current day: My elderly father did note in the final question of the Kansas response that I usually reside elsewhere, someday we will see what happens with the actual results.

[flyingember]

For colleges, here's the official answer

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... dents.html

In general, students in colleges and universities temporarily closed due to the COVID-19 virus will still be counted as part of this process. Even if they are home on census day, April 1, they should be counted according to the residence criteria which states they should be counted where they live and sleep most of the time. We are asking schools to contact their students and remind them to respond.

[FangKC]

Gov. Parson has issued a mandatory statewide stay-at-home order starting Monday April 6 at midnight until April 24.

https://www.kmbc.com/article/missouri-g ... r/32035404

[Steve52]

Gov. Parson has issued a mandatory statewide stay-at-home order starting Monday April 6 at midnight until April 24.

https://www.kmbc.com/article/missouri-g ... r/32035404

This guy is so far behind it isn't even funny.

[normalthings]

For colleges, here's the official answer

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... dents.html

In general, students in colleges and universities temporarily closed due to the COVID-19 virus will still be counted as part of this process. Even if they are home on census day, April 1, they should be counted according to the residence criteria which states they should be counted where they live and sleep most of the time. We are asking schools to contact their students and remind them to respond.

Yes, you are supposed to count yourself at college as usual. However, so far in my early polling, 100% of respondents have submitted or plan to submit in their "real home." No one really knows about the technicality and its definitely not something being shared broadly(at least yet). Parents are the ones who fill out the census and I really doubt many will have a student who both cares enough to redo a general email blast and tell their parents about it.

[normalthings]

Kansas City is now estimated to be at around 503,000. STL is in the high 290,000's but could go lower considering most of the 25-30,000 attending school there will not be counted this cycle.

It wouldn’t be surprising to me to see St. Louis hit 285,000 or so during this census because of this. I never knew that college students were counted in the census, and maybe not many others knew that either. Regardless, it will be a shock to many in STL, and in other places, to see the numbers fall potentially below 290,000 for the first time since 1860-1870.

I’m interested in seeing how other cities and towns in Missouri do that have a lot of college students. Surely it will be brutal for some, especially Columbia.

As you said, KCMO has UMKC, so it shouldn’t be too dramatic of a population shift.

Either way, STL will be in for a big shock. Without the potential college drop, STL will still likely fall officially below 300,000 for the first time since the 1800s.

[normalthings]

COVID could have big impacts on the 2020 census.

--College students are normally supposed to register in the town in which their dorm/school is in. They are still supposed to do that but very few people know that.--

Are you sure about the noted? -- I think college students are supposed to register wherever they are on April 1, as should be for all people otherwise not at their "domicile" regardless of reason. FWIW, this week we responded that I was here in KC, because I am (as a coronovirus co-locator). Had I been in Florida where I am domiciled, I would have responded there. I think this is how it is supposed to be, definitely was last time it was explained to me by a census worker (during the 1980 census, IIRC taken by hand into a ledger book). I was in college in Massachusetts in April 1990, and I think I responded there even though domiciled in KC.

In the 1940 census, I have a great uncle who shows up twice. His wife was the respondent at their home near Kelso, Washington and she listed him there (I think incorrectly), and then he was also listed in Ridgefield where he was spending a week with his parents at their farm, helping with some task.

Back to current day: My elderly father did note in the final question of the Kansas response that I usually reside elsewhere, someday we will see what happens with the actual results.

Yes, college students are supposed to fill out the census that they live at their college. (Both in a normal year and this year)

[earthling]

NY Times has various US maps where you can set to total cases, deaths and per capita cases. And the next one shows cases rising fastest by county.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

[shinatoo]

For colleges, here's the official answer

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... dents.html

In general, students in colleges and universities temporarily closed due to the COVID-19 virus will still be counted as part of this process. Even if they are home on census day, April 1, they should be counted according to the residence criteria which states they should be counted where they live and sleep most of the time. We are asking schools to contact their students and remind them to respond.

Yes, you are supposed to count yourself at college as usual. However, so far in my early polling, 100% of respondents have submitted or plan to submit in their "real home." No one really knows about the technicality and its definitely not something being shared broadly(at least yet). Parents are the ones who fill out the census and I really doubt many will have a student who both cares enough to redo a general email blast and tell their parents about it.

It spells it right out on the page that you list your children on. How much more widely spread can you get?

[FangKC]

Map of reported COVID cases in New York City by zip code. The interesting aspect of this is that the most dense parts of NYC (Manhattan) don't have the highest reports of COVID infection. At least so far.

https://untappedcities.com/2020/04/02/i ... -zip-code/

[Highlander]

Kansas City is now estimated to be at around 503,000. STL is in the high 290,000's but could go lower considering most of the 25-30,000 attending school there will not be counted this cycle.

It wouldn’t be surprising to me to see St. Louis hit 285,000 or so during this census because of this. I never knew that college students were counted in the census, and maybe not many others knew that either. Regardless, it will be a shock to many in STL, and in other places, to see the numbers fall potentially below 290,000 for the first time since 1860-1870.

I’m interested in seeing how other cities and towns in Missouri do that have a lot of college students. Surely it will be brutal for some, especially Columbia.

As you said, KCMO has UMKC, so it shouldn’t be too dramatic of a population shift.

Either way, STL will be in for a big shock. Without the potential college drop, STL will still likely fall officially below 300,000 for the first time since the 1800s.

What surprises me about St Louis is how slow the metro grows. KC is on a pace to overtake St Louis in a few of decades. St Louis has the big companies and business environment but KC keeps growing at a considerably faster pace. Not sure what the driver is.