COVID19

[kboish]

JoCo is acknowledging they have community spread. Their response is to shift testing away from JoCo to focus on other parts of the state because they will run out of tests otherwise. They are essentially surrendering and telling everyone to hunker down until they get Federal testing resources to isolate just the people with the virus. So don't expect anything to open until that time.

The US's response could have been different if they had ramped up development of the test in January (when the first case arrived in the US) and proactively and aggressively tested in outbreak areas. That would have prevented the shutdowns we are seeing now.

[kboish]

One stat I'd like to see especially in Italy is how many tests per day and % of positive results. And if the tests are general population or only those with conditions. At some point, if there is a high % of positive results relative to those tested, you may as well stop the lockdown, focus on those at risk and allow daily life to continue. Germany estimated that 60% could get this at some point and does seem plausible given no one has immunity and no vaccine. The US could hit 20% unemployment according to Mnuchin, would think at least 10% by summer. If 60% will get infected anyway, is shutting down the planet worth it? Maybe for now to keep hospital loads as low as possible but need to ask that question again in another couple weeks.

If the point is to make it spread slower and take longer to be over with to avoid crushing hospitals and making healthcare professionals choose where to focus limited resources (essentially deciding who lives and dies in potentially thousands and thousands of cases), then I don't think it makes sense to have a short term lockdown that merely delays that crush for a couple weeks. Either commit to attempting to avoid the nightmare apocalyptic scenario in every hospital in the country, or don't do that, but don't half do it.

Right, there are mixed signals everywhere. Thats part of the problem.

[grovester]

One stat I'd like to see especially in Italy is how many tests per day and % of positive results. And if the tests are general population or only those with conditions. At some point, if there is a high % of positive results relative to those tested, you may as well stop the lockdown, focus on those at risk and allow daily life to continue. Germany estimated that 60% could get this at some point and does seem plausible given no one has immunity and no vaccine. The US could hit 20% unemployment according to Mnuchin, would think at least 10% by summer. If 60% will get infected anyway, is shutting down the planet worth it? Maybe for now to keep hospital loads as low as possible but need to ask that question again in another couple weeks.

If the point is to make it spread slower and take longer to be over with to avoid crushing hospitals and making healthcare professionals choose where to focus limited resources (essentially deciding who lives and dies in potentially thousands and thousands of cases), then I don't think it makes sense to have a short term lockdown that merely delays that crush for a couple weeks. Either commit to attempting to avoid the nightmare apocalyptic scenario in every hospital in the country, or don't do that, but don't half do it.

The goal is to prevent the crush indefinitely. Seattle is 11 day behind Italy, we might be 11 days behind Seattle. Starting sooner will hopefully work.

Also don't think we could ever now flip a switch and have the economy whole again.

[FangKC]

Expect more of this type of thing seeing that the permafrost is melting, and pristine jungles are being deforested at an alarming speed. Long-dormant viruses--that we have no immunity to--will be unleashed again.

[grovester]

Interesting summary of the Imperial College report that got Trump's attention finally.

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status ... 2643357696

[brewcrew1000]

Vegas is going to be hit really hard

[earthling]

Am back in Florida, flew down yesterday for a family emergency (not COVID related). Very few are following the rules here. Beaches are busy, crowds form everywhere, some grocery stores are so busy that long lines form to get in, many restaurants not following 50% capacity rule.

As mentioned, Asia appears to have some level of control because much of Asia values society over individuality and the culture is to follow rules. That's not the case in the West and will be harder to go 'all in' for containment w/out some kind of martial law. The West might have to give into spread and start to manage life *with* COVID rather than fight it until there is a vaccine, which will probably be too late.

[FangKC]

Ford, GM, Fiat-Chrysler, Honda and Toyota will shut down all North American manufacturing plants.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ap- ... s-69666401

[brewcrew1000]

Am back in Florida, flew down yesterday for a family emergency (not COVID related). Very few are following the rules here. Beaches are busy, crowds form everywhere, some grocery stores are so busy that long lines form to get in, many restaurants not following 50% capacity rule.

As mentioned, Asia appears to have some level of control because much of Asia values society over individuality and the culture is to follow rules. That's not the case in the West and will be harder to go 'all in' for containment w/out some kind of martial law. The West might have to give into spread and start to manage life *with* COVID rather than fight it until there is a vaccine, which will probably be too late.

I feel like it's a right vs left thing. Texas isn't doing anything about school closings as of now and letting cities make own rules while the more liberal places are going on lockdown. We ate a bar/grill in Peabody KS on our drive back from New Mexico yesterday and the place was fully packed.

As for Asia, I feel like the people have more trust in the govt so that's why everyone is obeying.

[mean]

More trust in the govt or more fear of the govt depending on where. Don't leave your house or we'll shoot you is pretty convincing.

[brewcrew1000]

Maybe we will get over the culture here in the US if you are sick and go into work u will be looked down upon rather than some hero/loyal employee

[FangKC]

Politicians and some parts of the media are making it a left-right thing. Listen to health professionals and scientists. Ignore talking heads spouting off about things they don't know. Listen to the CDC.

One of the biggest threats right now is that our health professionals (doctors and nurses) will become sick and not be available to take care of the vulnerable when hospitals are overwhelmed.

[FangKC]

Slideshow: Paris under isolation. Anyone who has spent time in Paris knows that even late at night the streets are rarely this empty.

https://www.archdaily.com/935897/a-soli ... tali-photo

[FangKC]

Italy reports 475 new deaths from COVID in one day. Nearly 3,000 have died from COVID in Italy so far.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51952712

[mgsports]

Only Dillards left open in Oak Park Mall among Anchors.

[kboish]

I think its important to note that region of Lombardy has accounted for most of those deaths. Both overall and the past day. (319 out of the 475 this past day).

You can compare the total number of deaths to the whole population of Italy, but that is misleading. You should consider that most of the deaths are localized. Localized such that they are calling in military trucks to carry away their dead because their morgues cannot cope. Lombardy has had 200-300 deaths a day for the past week.

The rest of the country is shut down not because people are dying everywhere, but to prevent what they are seeing in one region from spreading to the rest of the country.

[kboish]

And im not trying to be an alarmist. Most people will be fine. But its hard to imagine how we will react if something similar happens in part of the US. And we can prevent that from happening in most places.

[FangKC]

[earthling]

^Trump's market was artificially inflated anyway - cutting rates, reducing corp taxes while still adding over $1T/yr to debt. In 2019 the market grew about 25-30% yet earnings only grew about 1-3%. Even at peak the US debt to economic output ratio was at worst since WW2. Trump's cocaine party is over but COVID was just the trigger not entirely the cause. I pulled rest out of emotional/manipulated market in Jan (slowly over last 2 years into private equity/loans) because it was ridiculously overvalued and any bad news could pull trigger. And we may be committing economic suicide by literally shutting down the economy rather than living *with* COVID until it peaks and protecting those at risk.

[alejandro46]

The "Trump Economy" was mainly built on unnecessary tax cuts and stimulus when at the time the US should have been raising taxes and cutting debt since the strong economy (that he inherited from Obama) was on the up and up in preparation for an eventual downturn. Except, you know, he did exactly the opposite, super-heating the economy through continual fiscal stimulus. As you can see in Fang's stock market chart above, volatility was increasing in recent months, which is not a good sign.