Politics

Come here to talk about topics that are not related to development, or even Kansas City.
Riverite
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Re: Politics

Post by Riverite »

Chris Stritzel wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:15 pm
I think GM, Chrysler, Ford are going to slowly move their cars to all-electric platforms. By 2030, I expect most of their lineups will include stuff like that. Hybrid versions of the cars will also become much more widespread. However, for everyone to switch to all electric cars, the batteries need to be able to go further distances, the charging times need to become faster, charging stations need to become much more widespread, and the biggest of all: Electric Cars need to become more affordable for people.

Right now, the price points for these just seems high for the average American to want to go and buy. I mean seriously.
- Starting price of $31,260 for a 150-226 mile range Nissan Leaf?
- Starting price of $36,630 for a 259 mile range or so Chevy Bolt EV?
- Starting price of $37,990 for a 263-353 mile range Tesla Model 3?
I get that these appeal to different people but for a majority of Americans, these price points just won't work. I appreciate that car companies are working on bringing costs down. I also understand that the savings come in the form of not spending money on gas or oil, but still. Dishing out that much for a car that doesn't go too far and takes a while to charge up doesn't make sense to me.

We all know that Americans like their cars. It's how a huge majority of us get around the country because our rail system sucks and plane tickets are too high. If a 4 or 5 hour drive now turns into 6+ hours as a result of charging up along the way, I feel like inter-state travel via car will be reduced significantly. So a balance has to be struck, and that's where the faster charging, cheaper car prices, and longer range batteries come into play.

Maybe in the future it will all work out, and I imagine it will, but for now, car companies have a lot of work to do to convince people to buy all electric cars.

All of this said, I think 2040 would be a year to look at for phasing out gas powered car sales. 19 years of innovation can get us very far and convince Americans to switch over. I doubt gas will fully go away.
I agree, I’m hoping that they can bring down battery prices as it’s really not reachable for many segments in the US.

I do think it’s important they add negative externalities into the price of gas, because we are already starting to pay for that stuff now and it will only compound down the line. It’ll be a lot cheaper to do it at the start and hopefully lower demand

mykn
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Re: Politics

Post by mykn »

DColeKC wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:28 pm
FangKC wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:22 am
India and several European countries will ban sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2030 -- in nine years. Japan and China by 2035. South Korea likely to ban by 2035. Brazil is attempting to set a goal of 2035. California and Massachusetts will ban sales by 2035. That will drive conversion quickly since Europe, Brazil, India, China, Japan, and South Korea are big vehicle manufacturers; and Europe, China, India, and California are big car markets so they drive trends. As Brazil goes will go South America, since it's the largest car market in Central and South America. The United States as a whole has not set a determined ban date on new gas-powered cars yet, but bills have been introduced to do so by 2035.
What happens to all the existing gas vehicles? Will the government add taxes that force people’s hand? What about classic cars? Will gas stations disappear and how much will fuel be with such low demand? I wonder if I’ll be able to even have a few classic vehicles when I retire in 30 years.
Do an electric conversion! Diyelectriccar.com

alejandro46
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Post by alejandro46 »

Couple things-

1. There are 17 million new car and light truck sales in the US/yr. The replacement rate for this fleet is around 20 years per vehicle. It will be multiple decades before we even get to a decent percentage of the total fleet EVs. Hence, the need to stop the sale of new cars in 2030, and not push until later.
2. Gas stations will not go under. There will be plenty of cars still needing fuel. Classic cars will not go away. Yes, maybe there will be a higher registration taxes for high pollution vehicles or a congestion charge like in the UK, where you cannot bring in a high emission non-classic car to certain city centers without a 16 pound fee. Norway reached 60% new car sales EV last year and they are doing fine.
3. I am not a huge fan of most Hybrids and PHEVs. You miss out on the main cost savings of not having to service an engine. However, some PHEV are getting longer and longer battery ranges to actually be usable. The BMW X5 has like 30 mi usable range.
4. The average sale price of a new car in the US is $40k. A person can save thousands in maintenance long term in an electric car, not just fuel costs. This will be huge benefit for people who have commercial vans, taxis, and distribution truck routes. As economies of scale increase, the cost of batteries comes down and the vehicles get cheaper. Having the fully EV tax credit back under Biden for GM and Tesla, who already sold 200k vehicles will be good too.

One last note, on charging. I haven't made a ton of roadtrips in my car, just to Chicago a few times. I would never tell someone it's quicker. You do have to kind of plan ahead. I use abetterrouteplanner.com. Most stops are 20 minute quick stops to take advantage of the fastest charging curve. Slowest to charge 0=5% and 90-100%.

Basically, TL:DR, nobody is going to take your lifted bro truck away, but you probably aren't going to be able to buy a new one to replace it and instead have to buy used or a battery version which is faster, cheaper to run and better for the air.

Riverite
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Re: Politics

Post by Riverite »

I don’t think lifted trucks will go away either until electric has a suitable replacement. What I could see them doing is taxing trucks with low gas mileage heavier, and handing out tax breaks or allowing people to write it off if they use it for work.

My guess is we will probably see fewer cars like that driven for pleasure, but just as many for work.

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FangKC
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Re: Politics

Post by FangKC »

There is already technology that allows for five-minute charging. It just needs to be manufactured to scale, and deployed. By 2030, I assume it will become very common.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

The other point that should be made is that electric cars have fewer moving parts, are expected to need repair less, and can be driven longer.

Cost to travel per mile is much cheaper. Electricity prices are not as volatile as gasoline. Drivers can expect more stability in monthly budget planning.

Once there is a mass conversion, gasoline will still be available, but there will be fewer places that carry it, and the price will be much higher since there won't be the volume sales to justify so many refineries.

Auto industry leaders are already talking about a change in the transportation model. They expect less personal ownership of vehicles. It might be a situation were cars are owned by a company, and when you need a ride, they are summoned to your location and you are a passenger. Fewer vehicles will be needed since most sit idle for the majority of the day.

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DColeKC
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Re: Politics

Post by DColeKC »

FangKC wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:24 am
There is already technology that allows for five-minute charging. It just needs to be manufactured to scale, and deployed. By 2030, I assume it will become very common.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times

The other point that should be made is that electric cars have fewer moving parts, are expected to need repair less, and can be driven longer.

Cost to travel per mile is much cheaper. Electricity prices are not as volatile as gasoline. Drivers can expect more stability in monthly budget planning.

Once there is a mass conversion, gasoline will still be available, but there will be fewer places that carry it, and the price will be much higher since there won't be the volume sales to justify so many refineries.

Auto industry leaders are already talking about a change in the transportation model. They expect less personal ownership of vehicles. It might be a situation were cars are owned by a company, and when you need a ride, they are summoned to your location and you are a passenger. Fewer vehicles will be needed since most sit idle for the majority of the day.
Sounds cool and all, but when we getting flying cars?!

Riverite
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Re: Politics

Post by Riverite »

DColeKC wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:13 pm
Sounds cool and all, but when we getting flying cars?!
When technology is good enough to fly by itself, but for the majority of people my guess would be never

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DColeKC
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Re: Politics

Post by DColeKC »

Riverite wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:20 pm
DColeKC wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:13 pm
Sounds cool and all, but when we getting flying cars?!
When technology is good enough to fly by itself, but for the majority of people my guess would be never
I want to see at least one “air rage” incident in my lifetime.

alejandro46
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Re: Politics

Post by alejandro46 »

FangKC wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:24 am
There is already technology that allows for five-minute charging. It just needs to be manufactured to scale, and deployed. By 2030, I assume it will become very common.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times
Current quickest charging is Electrify America chargers capable of charging at 350kW. However, the quickest EV on the market, the Porsche Taycan, can currently only charge at 270 kW. Tesla Version 3 chargers charge at 250kW, but most are V2 limited to 120 kW.

Look to Megawatt Charging standard to be released 1H of 2021 to support high level charging for heavy EV trucks (Tesla Semi, Daimler eCascadia, Volvo FH-electric).

https://www.charinev.org/news/news-deta ... t-at-nrel/

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Highlander
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Re: Politics

Post by Highlander »

alejandro46 wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:13 pm
FangKC wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:24 am
There is already technology that allows for five-minute charging. It just needs to be manufactured to scale, and deployed. By 2030, I assume it will become very common.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times
Current quickest charging is Electrify America chargers capable of charging at 350kW. However, the quickest EV on the market, the Porsche Taycan, can currently only charge at 270 kW. Tesla Version 3 chargers charge at 250kW, but most are V2 limited to 120 kW.

Look to Megawatt Charging standard to be released 1H of 2021 to support high level charging for heavy EV trucks (Tesla Semi, Daimler eCascadia, Volvo FH-electric).

https://www.charinev.org/news/news-deta ... t-at-nrel/
How does running the AC or heating impact your range? In IC engines, the latter is a byproduct of work the engine does, not sure how it works in an EV.

alejandro46
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Re: Politics

Post by alejandro46 »

Highlander wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:43 pm
alejandro46 wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:13 pm
FangKC wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:24 am
There is already technology that allows for five-minute charging. It just needs to be manufactured to scale, and deployed. By 2030, I assume it will become very common.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ging-times
Current quickest charging is Electrify America chargers capable of charging at 350kW. However, the quickest EV on the market, the Porsche Taycan, can currently only charge at 270 kW. Tesla Version 3 chargers charge at 250kW, but most are V2 limited to 120 kW.

Look to Megawatt Charging standard to be released 1H of 2021 to support high level charging for heavy EV trucks (Tesla Semi, Daimler eCascadia, Volvo FH-electric).

https://www.charinev.org/news/news-deta ... t-at-nrel/
How does running the AC or heating impact your range? In IC engines, the latter is a byproduct of work the engine does, not sure how it works in an EV.
You are correct, since the internal combustion engines are basically on-board explosion boxes they don't suffer as much efficiency loss in bitter cold. Overall, EVs are much more efficient if you look at the amount of energy converted from fuel/electrons to propulsion, EVs are just more impacted by heat loss.

Running the heater on my car (older 2018 Model 3 long range) is probably 5% efficiency loss. AC less impactful. Overall, driving in the bitter cold is not great for efficiency and I would say 20-40% less range at speed in bitter cold. Many newer EVs like Kona and Model 3 have heat pumps which greatly improves efficiency in heating up the car and keeping it warm in winter. Using the seat heater instead of heater is a way to stretch range as well as driving slower. The system will sometimes ask you to slow down to reach a pre-programmed destination. It also is slower to charge with a cold battery. I have access to a pickup truck and my wife has an ICE SUV so I can take those if its snowing pretty bad.

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FangKC
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Re: Politics

Post by FangKC »

GM announces it will cease production of gas-powered cars and SUVs by 2035.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3535 ... cles-2035/

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Anthony_Hugo98
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Re: Politics

Post by Anthony_Hugo98 »

FangKC wrote:
Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:59 pm
GM announces it will cease production of gas-powered cars and SUVs by 2035.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3535 ... cles-2035/
The market begins to turn, that’s good news!
For all my military brothers and sisters out there, thanks for paving the way, ill do my best! AIRBORNE!

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