2012 Election

[zlohban]

When your house is on fire, you don't care if the firefighter driving the tire truck is a Democrat or a Republican.

But they do want them to be union..

[aknowledgeableperson]

The CBS Sunday Morning News show had a piece on a GOP Rep retiring this year after serving 18 years. He is a moderate that expressed his complaints about the GOP right wing. But he also leveled charges against the Dems. He was the GOP half that came up with a budget compromise with a moderate Dem. They had over 100 members of the House initially back the effort. After pressure from the leadership of both sides of the aisle that support dropped to 38 other members.

Both parties are guilty of strict partisanship and it appears that no matter what most of the public says this election will likely increase that partisanship.

To answer a question, IMO Sandy has helped Obama overall.

[IraGlacialis]

All the tv stations here in Bangkok are preparing to do live coverage of the elections during the day and in-depth follow-up during regular news time.
Kinda surreal but, in the end, understandable.

[IraGlacialis]

Fecking Double Post...

[KCMax]

Predictions?

Among close states:

Obama wins: NV, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA (290)
Romney wins: CO, NC, FL, NH (248)

Obama wins popular vote 50.2 to 48.5

Close Senate races:
-Flake (R) over Carmona (AZ)
-Murphy (D) over McMahon (CT)
-Donnelly (D) over Mourdock (IN)
-Warren (D) over Brown (MA)
-King (I) over Summers and Dill (ME)
-Akin (R) over McCaskill (MO)
-Rehberg (R) over Tester (MT)
-Heller (R) over Berkeley (NV)
-Berg (R) over Heitkamp (ND)
-Kaine (D) over Allen (VA)
-Thompson (R) over Baldwin (WI)

Would make it a 49-49 tie in the Senate, but the two independents would caucus with the Dems, giving them the majority.

Dems pick up 5-7 seats in the House. All local incumbents win re-election.

Prop B in Missouri passes.

Gov. Nixon (D) cruises to re-election over Spence. AG Chris Koster (D) wins re-election. Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R) wins re-election.

Colorado legalizes pot.

Gay marriage passes in Maine, fails in Maryland and Minnesota.

[smh]

Obama receives 307 electoral votes.

McCaskill over Akin (by a hair).

Mitt Romney refuses to concede, despite Obama's clear victory.

[KCMax]

McCoy's is offering a free beer to anyone with a "I voted" sticker.

Taco Bueno is offering free Election Day guac and chips all day tomorrow.

Any other Election Day freebies?

[earthling]

It 'feels' like Obama is more likely now. I was not planning to vote for either and do not like either but am now leaning to vote for Obama. Maybe others in swing states who don't like either will lean toward Obama too over a no vote. Not counting on him winning MO but if I'm willing to vote for Obama, others who don't like either might too. Better to do business with the devil you know than don't know. I fear (justified or not) another war will happen with Romney and I don't want him to have Supreme Court picks. Just hoping Obamacare gets watered down quite a bit. Economy will eventually pick back up either way. Romney is not suggesting anything specific that would accelerate it.

Seems to me it's still up to OH and FL to ultimately decide. Romney focus on PA is odd.

[AllThingsKC]

RED STATES states that could turn BLUE (in order of likelihood):
1. Ohio. The polls are tied. I made Ohio red because there's little to suggest a reversal in it's 2012 GOP sweep.
2. Wisconsin. The polls are tied. I made it red because Paul Ryan is from there.
3. Virginia. Polls are close. I made it red because Romney is +22 in Independents in most polls.

BLUE STATES that could turn RED (in order of likelihood):
1. New Hampshire. Polls are tied and they've been known to turn red before.
2. Colorado. Polls are too close to call it for sure.
3. Minnesota. Polls are close, but one poll has Romney +1 in what should be a safe blue state.
4. Iowa. Polls are too close to call.
5. Pennsylvania. Obama leads in most polls, but some people have it in near "toss-up" status.
6. Michigan. Obama leads, but there's been some talk of a possibility turning red.

As far as the local races go:
MO Governor: Jay Nixon (D) over Dave Spence (R). Nixon will get around 60% of the vote.
MO Senate*: McCaskill (D) over Akin (R). McCaskill could win with 47% or 48% of the vote.
MO Amendment 3 (Judicial Reform): Too close.
MO Prop A (Control of St. Louis Police Department): Passes slightly.
MO Prop B (Tobacco Tax): Passes big, 65 - 75%.
MO Prop E (Healthcare exchange): Passes big, 60% are higher.

The McCaskill/Akin is the toughest race to predict, IMO. Either outcome wouldn't surprise me.

[KCMax]

Would this be the first time neither Presidential candidate carried their home state? Romney is down 20 points or so in Massachusetts, and of course Kenya is not allowed to vote. HAHAHAHA

[chaglang]

Would this be the first time neither Presidential candidate carried their home state? Romney is down 20 points or so in Massachusetts, and of course Kenya is not allowed to vote. HAHAHAHA

Ladbrokes has changed their odds from late last week. Obama's odds have jumped in one range and decreased slightly in all others. I've included a payoff from a hypothetical $2 bet as a frame of reference.

Romney:
270-289 6:1 (7:2 last week) $14
290-309: 10:1 $22
310-329: 14:1 $30
330-349: 16:1 $38
Obama
270-289 7:2 $9
290-309: 2:1 $6
310-329: 7:1 $16
330-349: 7:2 (3:1 last week) $9
EV tie: 1:50

[bobbyhawks]

2. Wisconsin. The polls are tied. I made it red because Paul Ryan is from there.

Are you only looking at the 10/29 Rasmussen? It is the only one that doesn't have Obama up. There is a plausible scenario where Obama loses Florida and Ohio and still wins with 272 votes. I don't really see a path to victory for Romney if he loses Ohio, but he clearly would like to flip Wisconsin to avoid the catastrophe that would be losing an election, yet winning Ohio and Florida.

[KCMax]

Would Obamacare fare better under a Romney victory?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rticles%29

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rticles%29

[zlohban]

Party Affiliation Poll 10/31/2012

YEAR......RASMUSSEN...............................ACTUAL VOTER TURNOUT

2004........D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2).......D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)

2008........D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3).......D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)

2012........R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1).......Find out November 7th


I'll be watching MSNBC!

[chaglang]

Edit: Actual what?

[AllThingsKC]

Are you only looking at the 10/29 Rasmussen? It is the only one that doesn't have Obama up.

My guess is the polls have it pretty close, otherwise Obama wouldn't be campaigning in that state.

[aknowledgeableperson]

Predictions, it is rough because many races are too close to call and so will depend on who gets the vote out.

POTUS: Obama, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a picture of Romney taken sometime Wednesday holding up a newspaper with a headline Obama Beats Romney (Truman in '48). I definitely think there is a good chance of one winning the EC and the other the popular vote.

MOGOV and other State Government Statewide races: Nixon and fellow Dems. I think the people of MO do a good job separating state government from federal government and therefore willing to split the ballot since it is likely the state will be heavy for Romney.

MOSENATE: Tough to call but I will go out on a limb and say McCaskill. It really depends if StL and KC produce a vote to overcome what I think will be a strong turnout in areas outside of Dem strongholds in the cities. Again with this I wouldn't be surprised if Akin also holds up a newspaper saying McCaskill has won.

On a national level the GOP controls the House. The Senate will likely be Dem but with only 50 or 51 seats (counting I's).

Personally outside of POTUS it looks like I will vote Dem. For POTUS I am now leaning to Obama but I just don't know. Will be one of those decisions I make when I fill out the ballot.

[grovester]

So 538 is predicting 314 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote for Obama, and half the states. Is that a mandate? Or at least high ground in dealing with congress going forward?

[KCMax]

So 538 is predicting 314 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote for Obama, and half the states. Is that a mandate? Or at least high ground in dealing with congress going forward?

I'm not sure we'll see a "mandate" again for a really long time, without the President's coattails giving him both houses of Congress.

No matter who wins the WH, working with Congress is still going to be a huge challenge.

[phxcat]

(in order of likelihood):
1. Ohio. The polls are tied. I made Ohio red because there's little to suggest a reversal in it's 2012 GOP sweep.
2. Wisconsin. The polls are tied. I made it red because Paul Ryan is from there.
3. Virginia. Polls are close. I made it red because Romney is +22 in Independents in most polls.

BLUE STATES that could turn RED (in order of likelihood):
1. New Hampshire. Polls are tied and they've been known to turn red before.
2. Colorado. Polls are too close to call it for sure.
3. Minnesota. Polls are close, but one poll has Romney +1 in what should be a safe blue state.
4. Iowa. Polls are too close to call.
5. Pennsylvania. Obama leads in most polls, but some people have it in near "toss-up" status.
6. Michigan. Obama leads, but there's been some talk of a possibility turning red.

The polls are not tied. There may be one tied poll, but those are outliers.

YEAR......RASMUSSEN...............................ACTUAL VOTER TURNOUT

2004........D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2).......D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)

2008........D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3).......D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)

Rasmussen was good in the Presidential elections, but horrible in 2010. He is now a Republican house pollster. As opposed to most of the other pollsters who rely on results, he gets paid to give the Republicans what they want to see, and will continue to do so as long as he is getting paid. Watch (and it is already happening) for his polls to regress toward the mean as the election ends, allowing him to be not too far off. Also, when has there ever been a Republican advantage over the Dems (last time may have been a very slight and brief one after 9/11)? It strains credulity that there would be one now.