GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Maitre D]

There was an interesting interview with Billy Beane where he was asked why his teams never steal.  He says, "We steal whenever it makes sense."

One weekend 2 years ago in San Diego, Mike Piazza was C.  He is atrocious at throwing guys out.  Suddently, the A's stole bases all weekend.  The next series, they stopped running.


It's all about cost-benefit.  75% being the break even.

[KansasCityCraka]

Moose won't be around until 2011 at the earliest, and I'll be awfully surprised if he sticks at SS. 2B or RF is more likely.

ETA in Majors is 2010. The Royals have said they want to keep him at SS but he will need to prove himself there.

There are plenty of good SS or 2nd base prospects out there, unfortunately the Royals have no depth in the organization in either spot.

[phxcat]

As WSPanic alluded to, there is a lot of research to suggest that the stolen base isn't worth the risks associated with it.  Using data supplied by MLB, statisticians have created run expectation tables, predicting the likelihood of a run scoring in various situations based on how those situations have resulted in the past.  For example, a runner on first with no outs is generally worth about .9 runs.  A runner on second with no outs is worth about 1.2 runs.  So a successful steal of second base with nobody out is worth +.3 runs.  However, nobody on with one out is only about .3 runs, meaning if you get caught, the effect on your team is -.6 runs.  The numbers vary based on how many outs there are, which bases have runners, etc.  As WSPanic mentioned, the break even point for steals in general is about 75%.  If you're successfully stealing 75% of the time, the net effect is the same as if you weren't running at all.  Below 75%, you're actually costing runs and hurting your team.

That isn't to say that you should never steal.  The numbers show what common sense would dictate, that a successful steal does help the team.  The trick is to know when to run and when not to.  Tuesday was a great example of when to run, when you've got a fast player like Gathright or Pena on base facing a catcher with a tired arm in poor weather.  And the Royals ran and they stole five bases and won the game.  I still think they ran too much in that game -- for instance, a slow guy like Ross Gload should never be trying to steal; he successfully stole second when Giambi just couldn't get a throw off at all, but then he pressed his luck (and it was incredibly lucky, Giambi had the ball with plenty of time to throw him out at second) and got thrown out trying to take third.  And then they tried to run on a catcher with a good arm in poor conditions on Wednesday night and predictably had little success.  With strong pitching that kept the Yankees from scoring at all that night, they still won, but as I mentioned at the time, Gathright's CS cost the Royals an additional run.  They're not always going to shut out the league's top offenses, so it's probably best if we don't waste outs and throw away potential runs.  The stolen base certainly has its place in the game, but if you overuse it, you're just asking for trouble.  The Royals themselves are a great example -- in 1996, they stole 195 bases, among the most of any team in the past 15 years, and for their trouble, among American League teams they ranked 14th in runs scored (14th, otherwise known as last).  Disciplined stealing (that is, only trying to steal with appropriate players in appropriate situations) can add an extra something to a strong offense, but it's not going to do much for a team that's not swinging the bats even if you're successful with the steal.

The chances of scoring a run from first vary based on the team. obviosly.  A home run hitting team will be much more likely to score a runner from first than a team that doesn't have great power. You do have to pick and choose your times to steal, but you do have to steal more, probably reducing that 75% figure, if you don't have much power.  Also, I don't have any statistics, but if you don't have great hitting, having a potential stealer should divide the pitcher's attention, increasing his chances of hurrying a throw and making a mistake, thus increasing the hitter's average by a few points.

[KCMax]

If you have less power you should steal less because you have even less leeway to give away outs.

[Maitre D]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... index.html

[kcmetro]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... index.html

KU wins an Orange Bowl and the national bball title....and the Royals are ranked 2nd by a sports writer (at least for now)? Am I dreaming?

[WSPanic]

KU wins an Orange Bowl and the national bball title....and the Royals are ranked 2nd by a sports writer (at least for now)? Am I dreaming?

Up is down. Black is white.

I'm concerned about our run production. We are not hitting all that well. Our hits are timely - which has been a huge help. I just don't how long we can count on that. Would love to see some more power out of the middle of the lineup sooner rather than later.

[Maitre D]

KU wins an Orange Bowl and the national bball title....and the Royals are ranked 2nd by a sports writer (at least for now)? Am I dreaming?

Even MU football and KSU hoops were good this year.  Talk about upside-down.


You know it's a funny time in KC, when the only team getting routinely dominated is the Thiefs.

[KansasCityCraka]

Guillen's suspension was lifted. Hopefully now that he does not have that hangining over his head he will start to perform.

[shinatoo]

Even MU football and KSU hoops were good this year.  Talk about upside-down.


You know it's a funny time in KC, when the only team getting routinely dominated is the Thiefs.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2008/02/ ... ansas.html there is an oddly inverse ratio of wins on a season by season basis between the Royals and the Chiefs. They track almost perfectly against each other season by season.

[StL_Dan]

Holy Shit! Just to clarify I really don't care that much. I had no idea that my "revenge" comment would spur 2-3 pages of remarks. I am very satisfied with our 2006 World Series Championship. I should have been more clear and simply said it would be "neat" if we had a chance to face off in the World Series again.......geeeezzzz.

I know that's what it meant.  Some folks on here try to read more into it, though.

[phuqueue]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... index.html

Wow.  That one seems a little different from most power rankings though; I don't look at SI that much, but it seems like he didn't do his first rankings until after the season started, based on what happened in week 1.  The Royals are fighting an uphill battle on ESPN, which had offseason rankings, preseason rankings, etc, so they already started in the mid-20s.  They didn't budge after week 1, despite sweeping the Tigers.  But in the new rankings today, they jumped up ten spots and are ranked 14th.

Meche seems to be having a little trouble with the strike zone so far tonight.  23 pitches thrown, 13 for strikes, with a leadoff walk in the second inning.  And Guillen struck out to end the Royals half of the first and waste Teahen's walk.  I really think Guillen needs to be dropped down in the lineup until his bat wakes up.  Teahen is arguably the best all around hitter on the team right now and he's got an offensive black hole behind him.  And then after Guillen, you've got Butler, Gordon, and Gload all hitting well.  If Hillman wants to stick with his L/R/L/R alternating lineup, I'd like to see Butler pushed up to cleanup, then Gordon in the fifth spot, Guillen batting sixth, and leave the bottom of the order alone -- although you may get even more production if you drop Guillen below Gload, too.

And as I've been writing, Meche has given up another walk.  Runners at the corners with one out.  29 pitches, 14 balls, and Meche has already given up eight walks on the season.  With any luck, he'll get out of this with a double play or a strikeout or something, but I'm not too happy with what Meche has been doing so far tonight and in his previous two starts.

[KansasCityCraka]

Meche isn't looking like the ace we had last year...4 ER in 2 innings with 47 pitches already.

[AllThingsKC]

I know that's what it meant.  Some folks on here try to read more into it, though.

True.  But in my defense, the original statement was, "I want I-70 Series Revenge."  There's only so many ways to interpret that! 

Give me a break!  I'm only human! 

[phuqueue]

You know, two games isn't really a whole lot to go on, but so far I'm actually really liking Tomko.  He started strong last year too and then ended up having a horrible season, so I think it's too early to say whether this was a good signing, but for two games at least, he certainly hasn't been the disaster I was expecting.  Five shutout innings last time, and tonight he's gone six and will probably be back for the seventh, allowing one run on a solo home run that just barely made it out (and before the homer, he hadn't been getting hit hard at all).  And he and Gload teamed up for that nice defensive play after the ball hit him in the shin.

The bad news is the offense is going on 23 innings without scoring a run now.  Butler on with one out now, but Guillen's up, having dropped in the order like I hoped he would, but only one spot.  Hopefully they can get something going.

[GRID]

The Royals need to get out of town for a while.  I think the cold weather is getting to them.

[KansasCityCraka]

Coming into the game tonight they had the 2nd best team batting average in the AL...we just aren't driving in runs

[GRID]

I know.  We can see the LOB stats now on the mega board!

One thing is for sure, 36,300 on a shitty night like tonight.

They might want to do the jersey promos more often. .

[KansasCityCraka]

Our attendance is sad so far. 19K and 16K for the 2nd and 3rd games of the Yankees series. I know we have had crappy weather but c'mon.

[Mhudson]

If there were 36,300 in attendance last night, I'd say the jersey promo was a success.  One thing I noticed, and it really bothered me, is I saw dozens of people get the jerseys and then leave.  Come on people!  You drive clear out to TSC, pay for parking, a ticket, get your jersey and leave?!  It was infuriating.  Support your team!