TIME TO FREAK OUT AGAIN ABOUT CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT! THE BIG 12 IS DEAD! MAYBE!

[AlkaliAxel]

I don’t think that means anything, we already know KU is trying to sell themselves to the Big 10. It’s the Big 10 that doesn’t really have incentive to add KU.

You have to remember, football is basically all that matters. Basketball doesn’t mean much and that’s what KU needs. And again, as a fan, you should hope KU doesn’t go Big 10. Splitting up from KSU for perpetual misery in too tough of a conference will suck.

[tskev]

Too tough of a conference? For football? I'd be happy if KU averaged a 5-7 record every year with the odd break of getting to 10 wins once a decade. They'd struggle to do that in the Big 10 still, but they're not gonna be worse than they already are lol. Untethering from KSU would actually help KU tremendously, especially if KSU ended up in the Mountain West or American conference. KU would be the first choice for recruits in the KC area as the only P5 college in the state. Kansas, I believe, is currently the lowest populated state with two P5 schools. It's tough to support two without the support that a larger population provides.

Basketball wouldn't struggle in the Big 10. There will be great matchups, and KU certainly won't win the conference every year, but they won't struggle.

Once again, I think the issue is most fans and journalists are looking at this in the same vein as the re-alignments in 2010-2011. Cable markets aren't as big of a factor, and if there is a serious push to end the NCAA, KU's basketball becomes as valuable as a big-time football program. The NCAA tournament funds the rest of college athletics. Imagine that revenue getting split up only amongst the P5 schools and 1000 colleges. Now, maybe the NCAA gets killed off in 10 years, and KU has to tread water in the Mountian West until then. That's certainly possible.

I am not guaranteeing any of the above, but the value of KU is above any other Big 12 school right now. The Big 10 might prefer some ACC or Pac 12 schools, but those will be more difficult to acquire at this time. I think there is s 50/50 chance of the Big 10 inviting KU within the next 2 years.

[beautyfromashes]

if there is a serious push to end the NCAA, KU's basketball becomes as valuable as a big-time football program.

Nope.

[AlkaliAxel]

Too tough of a conference? For football? I'd be happy if KU averaged a 5-7 record every year with the odd break of getting to 10 wins once a decade. They'd struggle to do that in the Big 10 still, but they're not gonna be worse than they already are lol. Untethering from KSU would actually help KU tremendously, especially if KSU ended up in the Mountain West or American conference. KU would be the first choice for recruits in the KC area as the only P5 college in the state. Kansas, I believe, is currently the lowest populated state with two P5 schools. It's tough to support two without the support that a larger population provides.

Basketball wouldn't struggle in the Big 10. There will be great matchups, and KU certainly won't win the conference every year, but they won't struggle.

Once again, I think the issue is most fans and journalists are looking at this in the same vein as the re-alignments in 2010-2011. Cable markets aren't as big of a factor, and if there is a serious push to end the NCAA, KU's basketball becomes as valuable as a big-time football program. The NCAA tournament funds the rest of college athletics. Imagine that revenue getting split up only amongst the P5 schools and 1000 colleges. Now, maybe the NCAA gets killed off in 10 years, and KU has to tread water in the Mountian West until then. That's certainly possible.

I am not guaranteeing any of the above, but the value of KU is above any other Big 12 school right now. The Big 10 might prefer some ACC or Pac 12 schools, but those will be more difficult to acquire at this time. I think there is s 50/50 chance of the Big 10 inviting KU within the next 2 years.

Long story short, KU football will never win again, KU basketball will never be able to be as dominant in a much tougher conference (their recruiting is already great, going Big 10 won’t move the needle any higher) and K-State will be screwed going to a smaller-school status.

Oh, and we’ll lose the hometown Big 12 tournament. There is no nothing good about this from a fans perspective. It’s horrific.

[Highlander]

[
Long story short, KU football will never win again, KU basketball will never be able to be as dominant in a much tougher conference (their recruiting is already great, going Big 10 won’t move the needle any higher) and K-State will be screwed going to a smaller-school status.

Oh, and we’ll lose the hometown Big 12 tournament. There is no nothing good about this from a fans perspective. It’s horrific.

If the B12 can add Cincy, Houston, or BYU or a few others, the basketball tourney would likely to stay in KC as long as KU remains in the conference.

It's tough to remain viable in football in a small state without big urban centers. Nebraska was able to do it for quite some time but that was a different era. Building a collegiate football program in this era requires more than just a capable coach.

KU basketball has always done a good job of recruiting nation wide which will help KU going forward. They are not like OU football where their success through the years has been dependent on poaching good football recruits out of Texas. As much as I would hate to see KC lose a basketball tourney the size and prominent as the B12 tourney, it would behoove KU to go to a P5 conference if that opportunity presents itself. I am not sure how well they would be able to recruit to a revamped B12 conference. On the other hand, look at Gonzaga, they manage to recruit some of the best players in the US (if not the world) to a tiny college in eastern Washington, so it is possible.

[tskev]

I don't agree that the Big 10 is a tougher conference than the Big 12 in basketball.

Also, given that KU's revenue is already 28th in the nation with basically nothing coming from football, their basketball program is already more valuable than most football programs. Not saying it happens anytime soon, but if the tournament revenues don't get split in 1000 different ways, basketball becomes a huge money-maker for the blue blood programs.

[WoodDraw]

Has anyone that's not a Kansas fan made a case for them joining a major conference?

[tskev]

Yeah looks like Girod, the KU Chancellor, finally spoke up and it doesn't inspire confidence:

https://www2.ljworld.com/news/ku/2021/j ... -decision/

[tskev]

Has anyone that's not a Kansas fan made a case for them joining a major conference?

John Skipper (former ESPN CEO) is on the Dan Le Batard podcast today.

He thinks KU makes the most sense in the ACC. For Big 10 and SEC, the revenue is driven 80/20 by football/basketball. In the ACC, it's 65/35. Getting Kansas into the ACC Network would pay out a $1 per Kansan with cable which helps raise for each school their conference payout.

He also said March Madness could break away from the NCAA and that is a $1 Billion payout...it works most naturally with 4 16-team leagues and then the NCAA is stuck with the remaining schools.

But yes, you're right, it's mostly just Kansas fans like me making the case.

[aknowledgeableperson]

I really think the best thing for the Big 12 is to hold Texas and OU to playing in the conference until 2025 when they are free to go. Rival fans will make life miserable for them, rightfully. If they want to leave early, hold them to their large payout fighting with every lawyer you have.

The schools will leave before then. Both schools have the funds and resources to buy out their portion of the conference media contracts. Change happens in 2022.

[WoodDraw]

Has anyone that's not a Kansas fan made a case for them joining a major conference?

John Skipper (former ESPN CEO) is on the Dan Le Batard podcast today.

He thinks KU makes the most sense in the ACC. For Big 10 and SEC, the revenue is driven 80/20 by football/basketball. In the ACC, it's 65/35. Getting Kansas into the ACC Network would pay out a $1 per Kansan with cable which helps raise for each school their conference payout.

He also said March Madness could break away from the NCAA and that is a $1 Billion payout...it works most naturally with 4 16-team leagues and then the NCAA is stuck with the remaining schools.

But yes, you're right, it's mostly just Kansas fans like me making the case.

The problem is that you keep saying how much revenue Kansas brings, but a significant amount of that is shared revenue. A significant amount of that shared revenue comes from Texas and Oklahoma.

And I think your numbers are wrong to start with, but I don't want to research. But there is a covid hit for sure, and there will be another hit from realignment.

I don't think Kansas brings much. Always the chance the NBA just takes the KC market too. There's no media market

[AlkaliAxel]

^That is the silver lining here.

COVID is obviously what caused/accelerated Texas & OU to move quickly and follow the money, and it sucks for us right now in college basketball. But on the bright side, if college is realigning over this, that means the NBA is about to as well. Franchises/universities don't have time anymore to sit around in losing propositions. Texas doesn't have time anymore to sit around in a less profitable Big 12, and certain NBA teams aren't gonna be able to sit around in unprofitable markets anymore.

So the silver lining here is, while we may get kinda screwed on the college side of things, the NBA side of things is likely gonna work our way by the same standards. The league will expand to Vegas/Seattle soon because they need the money. Then, a city like New Orleans that's bleeding tons of money is gonna be forced to move too unless they suddenly become a powerhouse.

Texas & OU are proving this is a legit thing that teams are looking to move for more cash, and fast. That's why I don't think some of these rinky-dinky NBA markets are gonna sit around losing money for much longer when there are much more attractive options...a la the SEC for UT!

[tskev]

Looks like ESPN might have been working behind the scenes, colluding with the AAC to blow up the Big 12 and get out of their media contract. If less than 5 teams remain in the Big 12, then ESPN wouldn't be on the hook for the $1B that's left in the GOR agreement.

Not sure if the legal case has teeth, but it would make sense for the remaining schools to stay put at the moment and let it play out. Add on top of that Texas and OU just buying out their portions... Even if it comes to a settlement with ESPN, the 8 schools could make a nice chunk of money before moving to whatever conferences they can.

[brewcrew1000]

This whole thing is going to backfire for UT and maybe OU. This same exact thing happened to U of Minnesota Hockey, For Hockey only Minnesota was in a conference called WCHA, it had smaller schools from Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, etc. Games would sell out all the time, people loved watching them, there were huge rivalries with the smaller minnesota schools and fierce rival North Dakota in the WCHA. When they moved to this newly formed Big Ten Hockey Conference, nobody cared anymore, they stopped going to the games and people stopped watching. I really feel like the same thing is going to happen in College with Texas and OU, people will just say they only care about the money and its not this regional sport anymore. The TV networks are destroying College Football.

[WoodDraw]

This whole thing is going to backfire for UT and maybe OU. This same exact thing happened to U of Minnesota Hockey, For Hockey only Minnesota was in a conference called WCHA, it had smaller schools from Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, etc. Games would sell out all the time, people loved watching them, there were huge rivalries with the smaller minnesota schools and fierce rival North Dakota in the WCHA. When they moved to this newly formed Big Ten Hockey Conference, nobody cared anymore, they stopped going to the games and people stopped watching. I really feel like the same thing is going to happen in College with Texas and OU, people will just say they only care about the money and its not this regional sport anymore. The TV networks are destroying College Football.

For me, it's already started to happen. Sports are getting hard to enjoy.

[Highlander]

This whole thing is going to backfire for UT and maybe OU. This same exact thing happened to U of Minnesota Hockey, For Hockey only Minnesota was in a conference called WCHA, it had smaller schools from Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, etc. Games would sell out all the time, people loved watching them, there were huge rivalries with the smaller minnesota schools and fierce rival North Dakota in the WCHA. When they moved to this newly formed Big Ten Hockey Conference, nobody cared anymore, they stopped going to the games and people stopped watching. I really feel like the same thing is going to happen in College with Texas and OU, people will just say they only care about the money and its not this regional sport anymore. The TV networks are destroying College Football.

For me, it's already started to happen. Sports are getting hard to enjoy.

The new transfer rule and DIL rules will change the collegiate sports world even more than realignment. The rich will only get richer and we will essentially be watching minor league professional sports where the fan base for each team will essentially have to put up the cash (to be funneled to players) to ensure their teams stay relevant.

[beautyfromashes]

The new transfer rule and DIL rules will change the collegiate sports world even more than realignment. The rich will only get richer and we will essentially be watching minor league professional sports where the fan base for each team will essentially have to put up the cash (to be funneled to players) to ensure their teams stay relevant.

I’d guess the NFL will quickly drop their draft rules and allow HS entrance, basically negating a lot of the push of players going to the SEC and evening out competition across teams.

[AlkaliAxel]

This whole thing is going to backfire for UT and maybe OU. This same exact thing happened to U of Minnesota Hockey, For Hockey only Minnesota was in a conference called WCHA, it had smaller schools from Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, etc. Games would sell out all the time, people loved watching them, there were huge rivalries with the smaller minnesota schools and fierce rival North Dakota in the WCHA. When they moved to this newly formed Big Ten Hockey Conference, nobody cared anymore, they stopped going to the games and people stopped watching. I really feel like the same thing is going to happen in College with Texas and OU, people will just say they only care about the money and its not this regional sport anymore. The TV networks are destroying College Football.

This is correct. What made college fun was the old rivalries, bragging rights over your local colleges and the local-ness of it. When we have very team traveling all over the country for their conferences and it'll just become like pro-sports...in which case it will lose out to actual pro-sports. College is giving up it's biggest edge over pro which was the rivalries and local-vibes. Who would care about KU basketball anymore when we get an NBA team here? It's just not fun anymore outside the March Madness tournament.

[WoodDraw]

They'll kill March madness by just making sure every team is included.

But you could start to see like an old big 12 preseason tournament, but that'll take killing the conferences.

[shinatoo]

I have thought for a long time that they should just eliminate conferences in college football. Have four regions: north, south, Central, and West. And then in each region go to tables with promotion and regulation like English football. Then the NCAA could negotiate huge TV contracts.

Keep the conferences for all other sports.

Do we really need to see Vanderbilt play Alabama?

You can have a four-game playoff for the winners of each division at each level. And then the rest of the teams with winning records could still play in bowl games.