Downtown Q3/4 (re-)occupancy needed - service industry needs love

[ToDactivist]

I have visited 5 cities during the Great Reset and was most impressed with KCMO plans albeit opening much earlier than most cities. Distancing, no bar seating, masks by waitstaff, 6' line markers, etc. BUT am now dismayed by the lack of follow-up by the office component as this same plan can be adopted by offices still molding work-at-home options BUT the service industry will desperately need this component and SOON. The PPP successfully took care of May/June including waitstaff/etc but July/Aug and beyond is now exposed. Liability fear is unfounded if workers want a job so be BOLD and re-engage with the urban mold. Blogs suggest most workers want to get back. My datapoints and opinion. Yours?

[DColeKC]

I have visited 5 cities during the Great Reset and was most impressed with KCMO plans albeit opening much earlier than most cities. Distancing, no bar seating, masks by waitstaff, 6' line markers, etc. BUT am now dismayed by the lack of follow-up by the office component as this same plan can be adopted by offices still molding work-at-home options BUT the service industry will desperately need this component and SOON. The PPP successfully took care of May/June including waitstaff/etc but July/Aug and beyond is now exposed. Liability fear is unfounded if workers want a job so be BOLD and re-engage with the urban mold. Blogs suggest most workers want to get back. My datapoints and opinion. Yours?

I've also been to a few other cities during this ordeal and KC seems to be doing things right. I'm not familiar with the office component but bars and restaurants are doing anything the city asks of them. They will do what it takes to keep open and some form of revenue coming in. Most are working with very small staffs and that staff is doing more than they used to. Executive chefs are doing everything required of them and general managers are running food, taking out the trash and whatever else it takes. I've noticed if people can be on patios or outside, they're doing a great job at distancing.

[ToDactivist]

I have visited 5 cities during the Great Reset and was most impressed with KCMO plans albeit opening much earlier than most cities. Distancing, no bar seating, masks by waitstaff, 6' line markers, etc. BUT am now dismayed by the lack of follow-up by the office component as this same plan can be adopted by offices still molding work-at-home options BUT the service industry will desperately need this component and SOON. The PPP successfully took care of May/June including waitstaff/etc but July/Aug and beyond is now exposed. Liability fear is unfounded if workers want a job so be BOLD and re-engage with the urban mold. Blogs suggest most workers want to get back. My datapoints and opinion. Yours?

I have visited 5 cities during the Great Reset and was most impressed with KCMO plans albeit opening much earlier than most cities. Distancing, no bar seating, masks by waitstaff, 6' line markers, etc. BUT am now dismayed by the lack of follow-up by the office component as this same plan can be adopted by offices still molding work-at-home options BUT the service industry will desperately need this component and SOON. The PPP successfully took care of May/June including waitstaff/etc but July/Aug and beyond is now exposed. Liability fear is unfounded if workers want a job so be BOLD and re-engage with the urban mold. Blogs suggest most workers want to get back. My datapoints and opinion. Yours?

I've also been to a few other cities during this ordeal and KC seems to be doing things right. I'm not familiar with the office component but bars and restaurants are doing anything the city asks of them. They will do what it takes to keep open and some form of revenue coming in. Most are working with very small staffs and that staff is doing more than they used to. Executive chefs are doing everything required of them and general managers are running food, taking out the trash and whatever else it takes. I've noticed if people can be on patios or outside, they're doing a great job at distancing.

Agreed and while this might skip along in a higher density residential area, it will suck air in an office-centric district. Bring on the office component

[normalthings]

I have visited 5 cities during the Great Reset and was most impressed with KCMO plans albeit opening much earlier than most cities. Distancing, no bar seating, masks by waitstaff, 6' line markers, etc. BUT am now dismayed by the lack of follow-up by the office component as this same plan can be adopted by offices still molding work-at-home options BUT the service industry will desperately need this component and SOON. The PPP successfully took care of May/June including waitstaff/etc but July/Aug and beyond is now exposed. Liability fear is unfounded if workers want a job so be BOLD and re-engage with the urban mold. Blogs suggest most workers want to get back. My datapoints and opinion. Yours?

I hate work from home and want to be back in the office. However, I have really come to love being able to work outside in the heat (albeit with shade).

[dukuboy1]

I prefer to work in the office, and would love to be back. However my company has not mentioned when we will be able to return. We have limited number of employees back onsite, people who cannot do their jobs remotely or lack the technology to work from home or work effectively. I have no proof, but reading between the lines of memos, statements, and video conferences, it appears they want to be very safe to ensure there is no outbreak within the office and limit the chance for an outbreak to occur. Some of it is logistics, how do we make the "cube farm" setup work where those are located and then wearing masks in common areas etc. I know the company cares about the welfare of its employees but I'm sure there is some fear of liability and the what if's the legal team has dropped if people are allowed to come back, even those volunteering to do so at first. A lot of moving pieces and it seems like, IMO, that nobody wants to be the first. They would all prefer to see what the other does and either follow the leader or make tweaks

[DColeKC]

Have any of you heard or noticed an uptick or decrease in productivity? I remember reading stories about how working from home a few days a week could lead to increased productivity, but I struggled when it was my only option.

[normalthings]

Have any of you heard or noticed an uptick or decrease in productivity? I remember reading stories about how working from home a few days a week could lead to increased productivity, but I struggled when it was my only option.

Up initially and down now. I think it only went up since it was something new and now that everyone is settled it’s gone down. It also took a few months for most associates to realize their managers have no way to gauge how much real work they are doing at home. The lack of in person meetings and interactions was seen as a boost when WFH first rolled out. However it has reduced productivity and idea sharing in the mid and maybe long terms.

Our company will not revisit reopening until November.

[ToDactivist]

Okay comments are similar to that of others I have asked. Basically "abundance of caution" mode which is fine/safe. I too have enjoyed working, then hiking, biking, couching, whatever, then working some more, etc. Productivity? I assume the random collision of ideas/problem solving is missing. And now the "show me" mode is activated, which is expected too. But post PPP its going to be a very tough haul for hospitality - restaurants, hotels, bars and while summer is here, patios are open, it should be exploited. Overtip these guys when you patronize in the meantime and hope for BOLD leadership.

Thx.

[Riverite]

Okay comments are similar to that of others I have asked. Basically "abundance of caution" mode which is fine/safe. I too have enjoyed working, then hiking, biking, couching, whatever, then working some more, etc. Productivity? I assume the random collision of ideas/problem solving is missing. And now the "show me" mode is activated, which is expected too. But post PPP its going to be a very tough haul for hospitality - restaurants, hotels, bars and while summer is here, patios are open, it should be exploited. Overtip these guys when you patronize in the meantime and hope for BOLD leadership.

Thx.

I think the amount of space and patios KC has should really be used to the cities benefit. Also more people should be using the street parking initiative to make their own patios. So far we have been lucky, but should remain vigilant for the health and economy. Over tipping will also help keep the service industry afloat

I think wfh is okay, and I’m glad everyone is being safe. Long term though it doesn’t seem very tenable for full time. Productivity has crashed from most people I have talked to. I don’t even necessarily think it is intentional, there are just a lot more distractions in ones own home.

[shinatoo]

Worked at home for 14 years now. no problem with productivity. I wouldn't mind going to an office a few times a month, but if I was required to be in office all the time I would find other options.

[Elrod]

Been working from home non-stop since 3/17/2020. Company (national financial firm) keeps moving the back-to-the-office date farther out, most likely based on continuing spikes of COVID-19 occurring around the country. I actually have fewer distractions at home than at the office, where I have a co-worker who likes to wander around the office on his headset when he's on the phone, talking behind me. I was already working from home when the weather was too bad to come into the office, or when there were maintenance activities going on at the house (furnace inspection, etc.) so it was not a foreign concept.

Since I already had a home office set up, I think the transition was easier than it may have been for those who tried e.g. working on a laptop while sitting on the sofa. I have a much better desk chair than the company provides at work. Plus, my experience at the office is much the same as it is here - the people with whom I work are not all located in my building, or even my city, so most of my work is through phone calls, instant message, and eMail, whether I am in the office or not. As a result, my productivity is roughly the same as before the outbreak - it's just not all that different.

[herrfrank]

My company occupies several floors at One KC Place (1200 Main). We are not expecting to return to the office until October, at the earliest. Probably not until 2021. There is also strong indication from leadership that people who want to work from home, forever if they desire, will be allowed. There is no question in my opinion that demand for downtown commercial realty will decline.

[earthling]

There is no question in my opinion that demand for downtown commercial realty will decline.

Q2 office reports should come out within a month. Might take another quarter or longer for a potential harder hit to show up as more leases expire. Even if there is some leasing activity, wouldn't be surprising if sub-leasing outpaces it in addition to possible lack of full lease renewals.

[normalthings]

IBM famously allowed 40-50% of their workforce to work remotely before killing the program in 2017. From what I’ve read it sounds like WFH can increase productivity but leads to a drop in innovation. Something else I’ve found interesting is that most pro-WFH articles use surveys where employees are asked “how do you think your productivity changed” vs. actual productivity data. I’m sure COVID will provide plenty of data though!

IBM kills remote work
https://www.ere.net/innovation-is-now-t ... mote-work/

Twitter hopes to expand WFH permanently.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... home%3famp

[earthling]

Have posted Q2 office reports here...
viewtopic.php?p=609401#p609401

Even though KC not as hard hit with office jobs as other markets there's already a hit on local office industry with around negative 500K sqft absorption and it's likely just getting started as leases expire over time. There's a lot of investment in WFH technologies from both companies building up remote access infrastructure and capital investment into WFH technology companies. Seems likely WFH will increase over time as it improves (people process and technologies) and ultimately harm office industry. Something could help offset it, maybe. Like going back to cubicles instead of community tables in post-COVID world.

[dukuboy1]

I think offices will look to bring back a focus on spaced, individual, work spaces, like cubicles, or something similar. There will be needs for collaboration spaces, and that need may need to be larger so as to not crowd people in a tiny conference room at times. It will be an interesting mix. I can't wait to return to the office, and I feel there are many like me. The office provides a social environment to network, and share ideas, and to share ideas spontaneously. WFH really limits the ability to meet off the cuff. I know that WFH will be popular and there will be more people allowed to do it. But before COVID WFH was underutilized perhaps, and now we are seeing what is a increase but maybe should be considered a correction. The investment in tech made it reliable, and it gives companies options now. But WFH will always be fraught with those extra variables of employee oversight/trust and no control over the individuals home infrastructure as it relates to issues they may have with their personal ISP, power, etc. They are the same issues that would be present if they were in an office, it's just now companies have to plan for a doubling of those issues instead of one

[earthling]

WFH won't be a replacement for office but a 25% hit would be significant, even 10% if it continues long term. NYC is being hit by significant subleasing. Other cities are seeing more company owned buildings leasing out space, some for first time ever. Some from temp/permanent layoffs but others due to plans for permanent WFH expansion. Either way could be a while before we see more speculative office construction outside those already committed.

I did WFH for my last 8 years, last 4 didn't have my own office desk. That trend had momentum with more workers depending on role before COVID. COVID caused even more investment in remote access infrastructure with many companies so could mean more permanent or semi-permanent momentum - depending on role. WFH is not for everyone/role but recent events could spur enough momentum to hurt office industry long term.

[herrfrank]

I think offices will look to bring back a focus on spaced, individual, work spaces, like cubicles, or something similar. There will be needs for collaboration spaces, and that need may need to be larger so as to not crowd people in a tiny conference room at times. It will be an interesting mix. I can't wait to return to the office, and I feel there are many like me. The office provides a social environment to network, and share ideas, and to share ideas spontaneously. WFH really limits the ability to meet off the cuff. I know that WFH will be popular and there will be more people allowed to do it. But before COVID WFH was underutilized perhaps, and now we are seeing what is a increase but maybe should be considered a correction. The investment in tech made it reliable, and it gives companies options now. But WFH will always be fraught with those extra variables of employee oversight/trust and no control over the individuals home infrastructure as it relates to issues they may have with their personal ISP, power, etc. They are the same issues that would be present if they were in an office, it's just now companies have to plan for a doubling of those issues instead of one

This past four months WFH I have made a few observations: our department (IT) has smatterings of engineering talent who specialize in various arcana -- languages, OS, methods, etc. In the past, if you needed help with something outside of your own expertise, you'd ask around and find the colleague who knew that subject. Nowadays, without the ability to "manage by walking around," a lot of people are flailing because they simply cannot identify the resources to help with certain tasks.

Ultimately, it's a management problem, but having everyone in one place for basically the same hours did allow easier resolution of problems. In the current WFH model, when a significant problem or production outage occurs, instead of the one manager owning it and getting it to resolution, practically the whole department has to get on a Zoom call. I am actually having far more meetings now than I did before, where I could resolve something with a five-minute hallway chat or cube visit.

[earthling]

^That simply takes adjusting to for companies newish to WFH. Companies that have been doing it for years have worked out such issues. WFH does mean a different way of doing things. And some who can't make it work might dump WFH. Nearly everyone I worked with were in various cities so web meetings were the standard anyway. Being in a office didn't make any difference.

Also, one scenario that is used with companies that are heavily into WFH while offering an office presence for everyone...

'Hotel' Cubicles or Community Tables (replacing tables with cubes if COVID concerned). You don't have your own dedicated desk but share any available desk with others. You go into office once in a while as needed or as often as you want and reserve a cubicle (there were more than enough where I last worked but did also offer desk scheduling and some sites around country I did that). This can cut down significantly on office space needed for roles that could work in this scenario. All calls made via cell or Skype on laptop so no need for desk phone.

[earthling]

National hotel occupancy has been improving, however...

- It's starting to level off
- Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is below 50% compared to July 2019
- Daily rates are 27% below last July
- Interstate hotels/motels are generally doing better than downtown hotels that depend on events
- Lower tier hotels generally doing better than higher end hotels

Anyone have recent downtown KC stats?

A Marriott hotel operations group I'm invested in is surviving by running a skeleton crew, which did mean some essentially lost their jobs or working less (not really any choice). Most guests are apparently understanding of hotels operating with skeleton crews in return for lower than typical rate. The review ratings for the related hotels are actually going up even though typically high beforehand.

https://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article111802.html