2023 KCMO Election

KC topics that don't fit anywhere else.
flyingember
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9862
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by flyingember »

AlkaliAxel wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:49 pm If KCMO wants to beat the Northland...its most current signature project (aside from streetcar, I suppose) is the airport in the Northland. Maybe refocus the big projects back to the urban core.
How does the airport benefit the northland politically?

Do northland residents visit the airport weekly because there's some amenity there? Does the city have a plan to add 5000 jobs near the airport because they expect to bring so many people to the city? What about a major new park with millions in facilities? How about a new transit line? Is it resulting in lower taxes?


The airport is as much an amenity of Olathe and Lee's Summit as anything. It's not being paid for by a penny of city taxes so residents aren't gaining a benefit from their money by it's construction any more or less than 2 million other people benefit from it. The jobs at the airport aren't somehow limited to northland residents, and even if they were, not to KCMO northland residents.
flyingember
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9862
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by flyingember »

2010 actual district sizes
459777
Raw average: 77629
1st: 74345 (95.8%)
2nd: 74669 (96.2%)
3rd: 78677 (101.3%)
4th: 78164 (100.6%)
5th: 78595 (101.3%)
6th: 75337 (97%)


2020 actual sizes
508,090
Raw average: 84680
1st: 92457
2nd: 89192
3rd: 84027
4th: 90562
5th: 71995
6th: 79857

2020 my guesses for district size (if they don't do this then 2030 is more extreme)
508,090
Raw average: 84680
1st: 78752
2nd: 78752
3rd: 90184
4th: 80446
5th: 90184
6th: 89760

Necessary change over current actual with my guesses for district sizes
1st: -13704
2nd: -10439
3rd: +6157
4th: -10116
5th: +18189
6th: +9903


-------------------
What I expect is the most likely

The 1sts, 2nd shift north
The 4th takes both part
the 3rd takes over two parts of the 4th. Not sure about the Birmingham area, it's awfully empty but it might move to the 3rd also.
The 6th shifts way west and north, the plaza is much denser than it's entire eastern arm
the 3rd more or less keeps it's southern boundary with the 5th
and the 5th grows in size

I wouldn't argue with lines 10 blocks here and there, it's more conceptual.

Image
flyingember
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9862
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by flyingember »

This is how the Troost boundary is busted. Again, shift lines in your mind since I doubt these exact ones work, but imagine the council where the 4th drops everything south of the crossroads and keeps the historic NE + gains from 1st and 2nd. Then give midtown to the 3rd and split up 5th/6th for district size

Image

And renumber to flip 3/4
User avatar
beautyfromashes
One Park Place
One Park Place
Posts: 7277
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:04 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by beautyfromashes »

Watching the meeting of the commission, they said the main goal was minority representation. This looks to mean that districts 3 and 5 keep getting bigger to keep them minority represented. This probably means 4 moves a good way into the Northland and 6 takes the spin term part of the State Line strip to Troost. I don’t think the would go for breaking those districts up.
flyingember
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9862
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by flyingember »

beautyfromashes wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:26 pm Watching the meeting of the commission, they said the main goal was minority representation. This looks to mean that districts 3 and 5 keep getting bigger to keep them minority represented. This probably means 4 moves a good way into the Northland and 6 takes the spin term part of the State Line strip to Troost. I don’t think the would go for breaking those districts up.
But by any plan that doesn’t come with scrapping at large districts minorities lose representation. today they have a big say in the 4th district due to historic NE density.

Combine that with the 3rd and their voice is diluted into fewer seats.

Having four east side seats means four minority-majority districts.

And having 5 districts in the northland enables creating a minority district there, which is a voice that’s silenced today.
User avatar
beautyfromashes
One Park Place
One Park Place
Posts: 7277
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:04 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by beautyfromashes »

flyingember wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:07 pm
beautyfromashes wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:26 pm Watching the meeting of the commission, they said the main goal was minority representation. This looks to mean that districts 3 and 5 keep getting bigger to keep them minority represented. This probably means 4 moves a good way into the Northland and 6 takes the spin term part of the State Line strip to Troost. I don’t think the would go for breaking those districts up.
But by any plan that doesn’t come with scrapping at large districts minorities lose representation. today they have a big say in the 4th district due to historic NE density.

Combine that with the 3rd and their voice is diluted into fewer seats.

Having four east side seats means four minority-majority districts.

And having 5 districts in the northland enables creating a minority district there, which is a voice that’s silenced today.
Not sure I follow. Combining the current (shrinking population) 3rd with a minority Historic NE creates two minority seats. Combining the current (shrinking population) 5th with minority suburbs around Grandview creates the two more minority seats. Of course, this means the 6th gets pushed further north taking space from the 1st which gets pushed into the Northland. Like I said earlier, this causes there to potentially be no council seat with an urban POV because the current 1st could almost be more suburban with it being mostly North with just DT proper.
flyingember
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 9862
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:54 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by flyingember »

beautyfromashes wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:07 pm
Not sure I follow. Combining the current (shrinking population) 3rd with a minority Historic NE creates two minority seats. Combining the current (shrinking population) 5th with minority suburbs around Grandview creates the two more minority seats. Of course, this means the 6th gets pushed further north taking space from the 1st which gets pushed into the Northland. Like I said earlier, this causes there to potentially be no council seat with an urban POV because the current 1st could almost be more suburban with it being mostly North with just DT proper.
You're thinking backwards.

Today the Historic NE is part of the 4th. These voters have a say in the 4th in-district seat.
Northern half of the east side is in the 3rd. These voters have a say in the 3rd in-district seat.
Further south on the east side is the 5th. These voters have a say on the 5th in-district seat

If you move the historic NE into the 3rd then these two combined voter groups have a say in ONE in-district seat. Minorities combined with minorities means only at most one minority wins an in-district seat.

At-large seats are of course citywide so it's irrelevant what district you live in, you get to vote for all of them.
An at-large member must live inside the district they represent. So you couldn't have someone live in the Historic NE and further south both win the 3rd at large.

From a sense of minority power, splitting up west of Troost splits up white power and more districts are highly diverse.

The 4th being northland + downtown + historic NE would have a lot of northland minority residents in it and it's not a given a white candidate would win that seat
The 3rd being midtown + east side means the best candidate wins, not the best white candidate and best black candidate depending on which side of Troost you win.

Shift forward to 2030 and imagine the northland is 2.8-3.0 districts. Do minorities south of the river benefit by having a white district on the west, a white district on the south and a minority district on the east? Would it be a given any of the three northland districts would vote in a minority member to the council?

It's time for the council to scrap at-large and have only in-district seats. At-large worked great in that it means you're sort of accountable to all but in a world where the northland is growing faster than the reliable east side voters who wants to take the bet that anyone but white candidates or northland friendly candidates win those seats. Jobs and race go hand in hand as a social topic.
User avatar
normalthings
Mark Twain Tower
Mark Twain Tower
Posts: 8018
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:52 pm

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by normalthings »

Did Ellington give a reason for voting against mask mandate.
User avatar
DaveKCMO
Ambassador
Posts: 20062
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2005 6:22 pm
Location: Crossroads
Contact:

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by DaveKCMO »

normalthings wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:34 pm Did Ellington give a reason for voting against mask mandate.
Didn't he vote against it last time?
User avatar
alejandro46
Alameda Tower
Alameda Tower
Posts: 1353
Joined: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:24 pm
Location: King in the North(Land)

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by alejandro46 »

How should we solve the affordable housing "crisis?"

KCTenants: [unintelligable yelling!!!]

But, how should we solve the housing "crisis?"

KCTenants: [SOCIAL HOUSING!!!!!!!!!!!!]

What's that?

KCTenants; Housing by the people, for the people!!!!!!

What's that?

KCTenants: A CO-OP!

But who's going to pay for that?

KCTenants: ?????

What about if we just build more housing leveraging the free market?

KCTenants: GENTRIFICATION!!!!!!
phuqueue
Broadway Square
Broadway Square
Posts: 2832
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:33 pm

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by phuqueue »

KCTenants: Housing is a fundamental material need and we shouldn't be deprived of it on a landlord's whim so that they can raise the rent

KCRag: Image
User avatar
alejandro46
Alameda Tower
Alameda Tower
Posts: 1353
Joined: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:24 pm
Location: King in the North(Land)

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by alejandro46 »

Not sure what you are trying to say? Yes the mail is important. Hence:
USPS lost $87 billion over the past 14 fiscal years—including $9.2 billion in fiscal year 2020—and expects to lose $9.7 billion in fiscal year 2021.
There are programs to help people out with rent. More should be done. But good luck screaming at Quinton Lucas (who is literally on their side) to get anything done. These people don't live in reality.

Any landlord can raise rent at the end of a lease. Rent Control is a failed policy, amongst the numerous other policies in place in San Fran that make it monumentally difficult and expensive to build new housing there. Combind with lack of public transit, despite "rent control," which helps the select few who enjoy the benefits of it, result in one of the most expensive rental markets in the country.
User avatar
beautyfromashes
One Park Place
One Park Place
Posts: 7277
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:04 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by beautyfromashes »

alejandro46 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:46 pm But good luck screaming at Quinton Lucas (who is literally on their side) to get anything done.
It seems like it's worked in the past so now that's why they are screaming louder. Probably shouldn't have been engaged in the first place. Now, there's no way to put the genie back in the bottle.
phuqueue
Broadway Square
Broadway Square
Posts: 2832
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:33 pm

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by phuqueue »

Not quite sure how to respond to someone who apparently earnestly thought that post was about mail and not this board's frequent preoccupation with aesthetics over addressing actual social problems.

Everybody lives in reality, but reality probably looks a little bit different to those among the ~16% of Kansas Citians who live in poverty and have to deal with landlords arbitrarily hiking their rent, selling the building to new ownership that promptly evicts them, or refusing to make residential spaces habitable (just a few of the anecdotes offered by KCTenants people in that tweet thread) than it does to someone who can go on a message board and post, presumably with a straight face, that "leveraging the free market" is the solution to all problems. The reality that affordable housing activists live in is one where profit-driven developers build the kind of housing that nets them the highest margins (that is, upscale/luxury housing) and profit-driven landlords will eagerly turn over units to new tenants who can pay more, not one where ***the market*** apparently compels developers, even in the face of high construction costs (driven by high costs for materials and labor, not by "rent control"), to magnanimously build affordable housing that loses them money and benevolent landlords to forgo potential profit to let tenants stay in their homes. They are responding to the conditions they are personally witnessing in their own neighborhoods. I don't know whether they have a fully baked plan to address these problems (though they do have more than "?????", which you'd know if you looked at the tweet thread or visited their website), but their reality deserves to be taken as seriously as yours.
User avatar
alejandro46
Alameda Tower
Alameda Tower
Posts: 1353
Joined: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:24 pm
Location: King in the North(Land)

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by alejandro46 »

What the phuque are you talking about?
Not quite sure how to respond to someone who apparently earnestly thought that post was about mail and not this board's frequent preoccupation with aesthetics over addressing actual social problems.
- You don't know me, you make broad assumption about the whole board, and literally that is the most vague reference to tie in here that made absolutely no sense. "We only care about asthetics?" I mean, I obviously don't speak for everyone, but I think most people here care more about good urban planning that helps people, reduces traffic and improves the quality of life than asthetics.
Everybody lives in reality, but reality probably looks a little bit different to those among the ~16% of Kansas Citians who live in poverty and have to deal with landlords arbitrarily hiking their rent, selling the building to new ownership that promptly evicts them, or refusing to make residential spaces habitable (just a few of the anecdotes offered by KCTenants people in that tweet thread) than it does to someone who can go on a message board and post, presumably with a straight face, that "leveraging the free market" is the solution to all problems.
You are trying to \ draw a strawman arguement and draw an inaccurate and overreaching conclusion. "You don't like KCTenants so then you must agree tenants deserve to live in terrible living conditions."

No that is not at all what I said. I said that (1) screaming at the mayor is not gonna work, (2) making demands/manifestos that are impossible without major additional taxes levied, (3) no where did I say "leveraging the free market will solve all the problems," I said that by making it easier to build new housing AND leveraging the free market as part of a housing trust fund, as the mayor proposed and mentions in the clip, is one avenue to help build more affordable housing.
The reality that affordable housing activists live in is one where profit-driven developers build the kind of housing that nets them the highest margins (that is, upscale/luxury housing) and profit-driven landlords will eagerly turn over units to new tenants who can pay more, not one where ***the market*** apparently compels developers, even in the face of high construction costs (driven by high costs for materials and labor, not by "rent control"), to magnanimously build affordable housing that loses them money and benevolent landlords to forgo potential profit to let tenants stay in their homes.
This statement not make sense. "New construction" aka market rate is expensive to build because of material, land, and labor cost, especially multi-structured in the urban core. Once people move into market rate housing, other vacancies open up. If the rents are too high, they will be forced to lower them. Supply and demand. If the market will bear a higher rent, as the property owner as much as it's unfortunate, if you agreed to in the lease then they have the right to evict you. The City's 20% "affordable housing" mandate has probably resulted in less total units built or planned. More total units means more housing for all. Artifically suppressing rents mean less housing overall.
They are responding to the conditions they are personally witnessing in their own neighborhoods. I don't know whether they have a fully baked plan to address these problems (though they do have more than "?????", which you'd know if you looked at the tweet thread or visited their website), but their reality deserves to be taken as seriously as yours.
They have a list of demands that, again, as I said, are not based in reality as in are not realistic to achieve.

I can't believe I took the 10 minutes to respond to this, but I believe in affordable housing that is free from pests, mold and dangerous conditions, but do not agree with many of this group's other goals or methods to achieve them at all. I know they are trying to go off the BLM type activisim, but if their goals are achieved I believe it will actually have the opposite result in having less housing than more.
phuqueue
Broadway Square
Broadway Square
Posts: 2832
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:33 pm

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by phuqueue »

alejandro46 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:16 pm What the phuque are you talking about?
Not quite sure how to respond to someone who apparently earnestly thought that post was about mail and not this board's frequent preoccupation with aesthetics over addressing actual social problems.
- You don't know me, you make broad assumption about the whole board, and literally that is the most vague reference to tie in here that made absolutely no sense. "We only care about asthetics?" I mean, I obviously don't speak for everyone, but I think most people here care more about good urban planning that helps people, reduces traffic and improves the quality of life than asthetics.
I've been on this board (and reading way more of it than posting) for 16 years, so I wouldn't say I'm "making assumptions" about anything, just reacting to the posts I have seen here, though I regret and apologize if I have misunderstood anyone's intentions. I don't seek to call out any particular person (I don't have any one person in mind right off hand and have not looked through old posts to find specific examples), but I do think that building a pleasant urban playground is often a higher priority than fixing real problems, and I think this becomes clearer when some of those real problems, like affordable housing, come up. I think that your post, in which you don't take the activists seriously and finish by glibly prescribing specifically the thing they are concerned about, is part of this broader pattern.
Everybody lives in reality, but reality probably looks a little bit different to those among the ~16% of Kansas Citians who live in poverty and have to deal with landlords arbitrarily hiking their rent, selling the building to new ownership that promptly evicts them, or refusing to make residential spaces habitable (just a few of the anecdotes offered by KCTenants people in that tweet thread) than it does to someone who can go on a message board and post, presumably with a straight face, that "leveraging the free market" is the solution to all problems.
You are trying to \ draw a strawman arguement and draw an inaccurate and overreaching conclusion. "You don't like KCTenants so then you must agree tenants deserve to live in terrible living conditions."

No that is not at all what I said. I said that (1) screaming at the mayor is not gonna work, (2) making demands/manifestos that are impossible without major additional taxes levied, (3) no where did I say "leveraging the free market will solve all the problems," I said that by making it easier to build new housing AND leveraging the free market as part of a housing trust fund, as the mayor proposed and mentions in the clip, is one avenue to help build more affordable housing.
I don't think you agree that tenants deserve to live in terrible living conditions, I just think you aren't very interested in hearing from those tenants about what their problems are or what they think the solutions could be. For example, in your retelling, they are asked "who pays for social housing" and they respond "?????" In reality, they are asked "who pays for social housing" and they respond that the Housing Trust Fund will pay for it by "defunding the police and taxing the gentrified for an ongoing revenue source." Of course, there are plenty of questions that you could raise in response to that -- how much money to take from the police and how, politically, to accomplish that?; what would taxing gentrifiers look like and how would it be implemented?; etc. But you aren't engaging with any of these points. If I hadn't read the Twitter thread, I wouldn't know they'd even be made. You just brush them off as an incoherent mob.

To your number (3), what you said -- all that you said -- was: "What about if we just build more housing leveraging the free market?" You'll have to excuse me if I found the natural reading of that to be that building more housing is how you "leverage the free market," making these two things one and the same, and if it seemed to me that you considered this to be more than just "one avenue," but in fact the only avenue, since you didn't say, or even really hint, otherwise.
The reality that affordable housing activists live in is one where profit-driven developers build the kind of housing that nets them the highest margins (that is, upscale/luxury housing) and profit-driven landlords will eagerly turn over units to new tenants who can pay more, not one where ***the market*** apparently compels developers, even in the face of high construction costs (driven by high costs for materials and labor, not by "rent control"), to magnanimously build affordable housing that loses them money and benevolent landlords to forgo potential profit to let tenants stay in their homes.
This statement not make sense. "New construction" aka market rate is expensive to build because of material, land, and labor cost, especially multi-structured in the urban core. Once people move into market rate housing, other vacancies open up. If the rents are too high, they will be forced to lower them. Supply and demand. If the market will bear a higher rent, as the property owner as much as it's unfortunate, if you agreed to in the lease then they have the right to evict you. The City's 20% "affordable housing" mandate has probably resulted in less total units built or planned. More total units means more housing for all. Artifically suppressing rents mean less housing overall.
This is what your microeconomics textbook tells you should happen, but it's not what happens in the real world. Housing is a segmented market and spillover between segments can be limited. I have previously posted about the illustrative example of NYC, where new high-end housing sprouts all around the city like weeds, but prices at the low end continue to rise. This is because developers demand a high return on their expensive new construction and prefer to let it sit vacant until they can realize that return than discount it too much, so your reasoning fails where you assume that people will move into that new housing. Prices within that high end have fallen because of how much excess supply is available, but it doesn't trickle down to the lower end, which is, for all intents and purposes, a different market. To be fair, KC is a different city, where the overall range of prices is more compressed than in NYC and where construction costs are surely lower than in NYC (I didn't actually look this up, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume it's true), so maybe you will see somewhat more spillover between market segments there (though incomes are also lower in KC than in NYC), but I think it is nonetheless telling that in a city suffering a severe affordability shortage, letting developers build the housing they want to build has not alleviated the shortage at all. If you focus too hard on what economic theory says should happen, rather than what actually is happening, I don't know, one might say that you aren't "living in reality."

Rent control might lead to less housing being built by restricting the returns that developers can expect to achieve, but it does not actually increase the cost of construction, which is the distinction I was making in response to your post in which you asserted otherwise (" Rent Control ... makes it ... expensive to build new housing there"). It seems inconsequential to me whether no new housing is being built or a bunch of empty luxury units are built, since neither scenario eases the affordability crisis in practice.
They are responding to the conditions they are personally witnessing in their own neighborhoods. I don't know whether they have a fully baked plan to address these problems (though they do have more than "?????", which you'd know if you looked at the tweet thread or visited their website), but their reality deserves to be taken as seriously as yours.
They have a list of demands that, again, as I said, are not based in reality as in are not realistic to achieve.

I can't believe I took the 10 minutes to respond to this, but I believe in affordable housing that is free from pests, mold and dangerous conditions, but do not agree with many of this group's other goals or methods to achieve them at all. I know they are trying to go off the BLM type activisim, but if their goals are achieved I believe it will actually have the opposite result in having less housing than more.
To be honest, I was not even familiar with KCTenants as an organization prior to this conversation, so I don't intend to die on the hill of defending whatever their specific demands are. What I take exception to is the dismissive ridicule of affordable housing activists in general, which was not newly introduced to this board with your post, hence my mailbox gag (full context for those who didn't watch the Simpsons). The uncritical deference to and enthusiasm for developers (and accompanying antagonism toward those who are skeptical of developers), whose job is not actually to make the city any better or worse but to make a buck, and whatever that means for the rest of the city is what it is; the gross just shrugging acceptance that the landlord "has a right to evict you" because "you agreed in the lease," so whatever, I guess you're evicted now, sorry!; and the uninterrogated expectation that we can simply build our way out of the housing crisis and "leverage the market," though it is not actually the purpose of the market to ensure that housing is affordable or that any other social goal is met and it is unreasonable to expect the market to do those things -- these are the points that deserve to be called out.

I'm not by any means advocating NIMBYism. At base the issue truly is that we have x number of housing units and y number of people who need to live somewhere and y is >>>> x. But simply building up to x = y isn't going to fix the problem if you are not building the right x. I don't get from the KCTenants housing platform that they are necessarily advocating NIMBYism either (maybe in practice they are, in which case, I don't agree with them on that point), but the housing crisis is ultimately going to require government intervention to resolve, if for no other reason than that it's not profitable for developers to build affordable housing, and the current model of requiring them to throw a few "affordable" units in their otherwise market-rate developments is obviously not doing the trick. I think many of the planks in their platform -- public purchase, public housing, net gain requirement, etc -- are more promising than "leveraging the free market." They would require an investment that the government currently doesn't seem prepared to make, but the point of activism is to push the government on things it doesn't want to do. More fundamentally, it would be great if we could separate the basic necessity of housing from a store and source of wealth, which is the real root of the whole problem, but that's thornier, and no, not something the mayor can do anything about.
User avatar
FangKC
City Hall
City Hall
Posts: 18215
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2003 10:02 pm
Location: Old Northeast -- Indian Mound

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by FangKC »

Yelling at the mayor, who was at one time homeless himself as a child, is probably not the most productive activity. However, I can sense that woman's desperation and frustration.

City leaders can only do so much. It isn't like the City can unilaterally just allocate millions to suddenly build more public housing units or "social housing." The state and federal governments have been underfunding public housing and low-income housing programs for decades. As we speak, senators Sinema and Manchin are demanding millions be cut from the President's agenda, and that will likely mean millions cut for housing programs.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/0 ... tle-515588

I believe Missouri has cut back on low-income housing tax credits. Former Gov. Eric Greitens tried to kill the state program in 2017. I do think there is an effort to reformat the program though.

This is a complex situation, and there are a lot of forces at work that have made It worse:

* the economic collapse of 2008 froze the financial, real estate, and construction markets for several years basically stopping construction of new housing for several years;

* years of not raising the minimum wage while costs for everything have gone up;

* decades of American workers' incomes not keeping up with inflation, and productivity gains;

* years' long waits for Section 8 housing vouchers for low-income residents (thus, people being evicted just cannot go find a public housing unit, or get a voucher when they suddenly need it);

* lack of enough public housing units being built for decades;

* historic banking policies that make it difficult for low-income communities to get mortgages and buy homes in redlined neighborhoods, as well as difficulty getting loans to renovate homes in distressed neighborhoods;

* fewer eligible for veterans housing programs like VA loans since fewer Americans serve in the military;

* lack of affordable childcare for parents;

* lack of health insurance and quickly rising costs;

* quickly rising expenses for many low-income people maintaining and owning a vehicle since jobs often are placed far from they can afford to live, and mass transit that doesn't reach it;

* the indifference of elected leaders, who are often millionaires and have no sense of the average American's struggles;

* skyrocketing costs of building materials and appliances due to tariffs imposed by President Trump;

* disasters from climate-related events increasing demand for building materials;

* many baby boomers have retired (the biggest generation of retirees in American history) and many of them retired into poverty https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbigg ... f52d54bd3d ;

* and of course, COVID making everything worse.

Many parts of the human infrastructure spending programs will likely be cut, and many of those sought to address many of the things I listed above.

Much of this problem has existed--and been coming to a crescendo--before Lucas became mayor.

That being said, the City of Berlin has purchased thousands of apartments for "social housing" to deal with their affordability problem.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/berl ... -landlords
User avatar
beautyfromashes
One Park Place
One Park Place
Posts: 7277
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:04 am

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by beautyfromashes »

I don't really think you can blame these people, for the most part. Many people have lost hope in our society. The people I blame are the "organizers" who come in from Chicago, spew some nouveau communism to whip the underclass to a frenzy and then use numbers to build their own political power and leave those in the group no better off. They've gotten a tenants bill of rights and a housing fund. They will work to get control over that money and find additional forms of revenue (rental tax, health funds, development kickbacks, etc.) for their own benefits and power. They will turn this into a political campaign while continuing to string along those in the group who are still struggling with pennies in token benefits for every dollar they convert. They will convince politicians that they have the power to get them elected due to their mere numbers. You also have to blame the politicians (the mayor and councilpeople) who have given the group a seat at the table and way more microphone time than they deserve when there are other groups in this city who would be better equipped to meet the needs of the people. They've given them a foothold when one wasn't deserved. This was done either out of political desperation or goodhearted naivety or guilt. It won't serve them well in the long run.
kas1
Strip mall
Strip mall
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:36 pm

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by kas1 »

phuqueue wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:37 pmThis is what your microeconomics textbook tells you should happen, but it's not what happens in the real world. Housing is a segmented market and spillover between segments can be limited. I have previously posted about the illustrative example of NYC, where new high-end housing sprouts all around the city like weeds, but prices at the low end continue to rise. This is because developers demand a high return on their expensive new construction and prefer to let it sit vacant until they can realize that return than discount it too much, so your reasoning fails where you assume that people will move into that new housing. Prices within that high end have fallen because of how much excess supply is available, but it doesn't trickle down to the lower end, which is, for all intents and purposes, a different market. To be fair, KC is a different city, where the overall range of prices is more compressed than in NYC and where construction costs are surely lower than in NYC (I didn't actually look this up, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume it's true), so maybe you will see somewhat more spillover between market segments there (though incomes are also lower in KC than in NYC), but I think it is nonetheless telling that in a city suffering a severe affordability shortage, letting developers build the housing they want to build has not alleviated the shortage at all.
But in fact, developers in NYC do not get to build what they want. And prices go up at the low end of the spectrum due to simple issues of supply and demand: the population of the country is continuously growing, but large cities do not produce new housing at a rate that keeps up with that growth, especially in these times where there are many people wanting to move from suburbs to urban centers. If there is less housing than the number of people who want housing, then the people with the least money (or the least inclination to remain in that city) get outbid and get forced out of the market. When there is sufficient housing available, the owners of the worst properties have no choice but to accept whatever rent payments their tenants are able to scrounge up, or else they'll have no tenants at all. We don't even have to look to other cities to find examples of slumlords ending up with buildings that had been luxurious in the past. A developer's intentions no longer mean anything at all once the building has already been constructed. There is absolutely no reason why a city cannot consist entirely of housing which was originally built as luxury housing, and that's certainly better than a city with substantial amounts of housing that was built as cheaply as possible.

Development in NYC and elsewhere does not keep up with growing demand due to oppressive zoning limitations. There's an endless supply of detached houses in middle-class neighborhoods in New York which could be redeveloped into moderately-priced apartments, but they are off-limits. Even in neighborhoods where zoning allows for redevelopment, it's usually done in a NIMBY fashion of prioritizing "neighborhood character" over construction efficiency. This results in all sorts of absurdities in which developers pay an arm and a leg for a medium-sized building in a hot neighborhood and then replace it with one that's only a couple stories taller. It's a very expensive way to produce a pitiful amount of new housing. And this is to say nothing of affordable housing mandates and other fees that are tacked onto major developments (like requiring them to literally build and finance a public school or library as part of their development). These are smart policies in the short run because they allow the city to cash in on the high land values, but they also ensure that market-rate housing continues to only be viable at absurdly high price points because the tenants are literally funding the construction of an entire school. And then we could touch on how the zoning code essentially requires most large projects to include expensive underground parking, even in a lot of areas that have excellent transit and low car ownership. You couldn't do better if you deliberately designed a system that made it impossible to produce market-rate affordable housing. And in NYC it sort of halfway works simply because there are enough rich people to sustain a decent pace of new construction, but the system could certainly be better.

(Also, I looked at your previous post that you linked to regarding the changing housing prices in New York. The source that you linked to in that post was specifically talking about an increase at the bottom end of the for-sale condo market *in Manhattan* while the rest of Manhattan condo market declined. The page had a table with data by neighborhood citywide, and when sorting by average rent and by average sale price it looked like the cheaper neighborhoods had generally lower levels of year-over-year rent increase than the top neighborhoods, and at first glance I didn't see any obvious trend in the sale prices. But regardless, NYC subsidizes a lot of below-market housing projects. It's one of De Blasio's signature issues. That people are still complaining about affordability seven years into his term does not reflect well on the prospects of using "affordable housing" as a silver bullet to address housing shortages, even if it can at least contribute some amount of new housing which might not otherwise exist.)
phuqueue
Broadway Square
Broadway Square
Posts: 2832
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:33 pm

Re: 2023 KCMO Election

Post by phuqueue »

I moved the NYC tangent to Affordable Housing
Post Reply