Economy

KC topics that don't fit anywhere else.
earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

KC metro is doing very well with job recovery, only down 5.6% for June compared to a year ago when most Midwest/E Coast markets are down in the 7-10% range. But still down 50K jobs from Feb. Hospitality jobs still down the most. Office jobs not down much compared to most markets, especially govt. And odd that construction jobs actually increased since Feb and significant increase from year ago. KC is basically set back to about 2015 as of June.

Nationally there are still over 1M jobs lost a week and at some point returning jobs may not more than offset anymore so it could get worse by end of year, maybe. The end of extra $600 federal unemployment boost could change things too.

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https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

earthling wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:04 am
KC metro is doing very well with job recovery, only down 5.6% for June compared to a year ago when most Midwest/E Coast markets are down in the 7-10% range. But still down 50K jobs from Feb. Hospitality jobs still down the most. Office jobs not down much compared to most markets, especially govt. And odd that construction jobs actually increased since Feb and significant increase from year ago. KC is basically set back to about 2015 as of June.

Nationally there are still over 1M jobs lost a week and at some point returning jobs may not more than offset anymore so it could get worse by end of year, maybe. The end of extra $600 federal unemployment boost could change things too.

Image

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm
I am sure the new terminal is helping boost those construction numbers

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

^5K construction jobs added since Feb. How many working airport construction?

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

earthling wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:03 pm
^5K construction jobs added since Feb. How many working airport construction?
I think they expected 1-2 thousand on site at peak. I’m unsure of how things are with corona. However, there are a lot of non-onsite industry jobs involved. Something like 15-20k jobs supported was floated during the campaign.

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

This shows breakdown of MO/KS side of metro, though a month behind. Is for May. MO side hit harder than KS side but still better than US avg. KS side hit harder with ProBiz and Information jobs. MO side hit harder with Financial, Manufacturing and Hospitality.

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More detail including county level here...
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-pl ... _table.htm

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

BLS claims KC June unemployment rate is only 7.8% compared to 11.1% US avg. The 'real' rate is likely quite a bit higher but either way KC doing much better than US avg and Midwest, including better than Indy and Columbus.

Nationally though unemployment claims are back to rising and GDP shrinking. Printing money apparently only works if there's GDP growth.

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

KC non-farm employment now only down 4%. Unemployment rate around 6%

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

KC’s recovery is impressing me.



1,070,800 jobs in July vs 1,107,700 at the peak in March. Nonfarm payroll is down 4% over past 12 months. (Not seasonally adjusted)

Unemployment rate is now just 7.6% AND the labor force is well above pre-corona levels. Labor force is the number of people employed or looking for jobs.

Adjusted to the February/March labor force size, our current unemployment rate is 6.6%. Nashville’s above 16.6%. Cincinatti is 7.9%. STL 7.7%

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Highlander
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Re: Economy

Post by Highlander »

normalthings wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:40 pm
KC’s recovery is impressing me.



1,070,800 jobs in July vs 1,107,700 at the peak in March. Nonfarm payroll is down 4% over past 12 months. (Not seasonally adjusted)

Unemployment rate is now just 7.6% AND the labor force is well above pre-corona levels. Labor force is the number of people employed or looking for jobs.

Adjusted to the February/March labor force size, our current unemployment rate is 6.6%. Nashville’s above 16.6%. Cincinatti is 7.9%. STL 7.7%
KC is diversified and is not heavily reliant on any of the 3 big industries hit by the CV19 induced recession: Airlines, Tourism and Oil.

Small business owners in the service industry are taking it pretty hard though.

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

This shows July breakdown for MO vs. KS sides of KC metro (2nd section)...
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-pl ... _table.htm

MO side of metro took a bigger hit with Leisure/Hospitality jobs given more hotels/restaurants/venues/touristy things but also a big hit with Financial jobs. MO side doing much better than US avg in Construction and Govt jobs. KS side doing better with Manufacturing and Financial jobs relative to US.

Nationally, unemployment claims are reducing a bit but now showing higher than employment gains (including those furloughed returning to work). The 800K new claims last week is still abnormally high even during down times. Might start seeing unemployment rate increase a bit depending on those still participating in workforce. Hard to tell for KC but clearly not as hard hit as US avg.

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

earthling wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:21 am
This shows July breakdown for MO vs. KS sides of KC metro (2nd section)...
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-pl ... _table.htm

MO side of metro took a bigger hit with Leisure/Hospitality jobs given more hotels/restaurants/venues/touristy things but also a big hit with Financial jobs. MO side doing much better than US avg in Construction and Govt jobs. KS side doing better with Manufacturing and Financial jobs relative to US.

Nationally, unemployment claims are reducing a bit but now showing higher than employment gains (including those furloughed returning to work). The 800K new claims last week is still abnormally high even during down times. Might start seeing unemployment rate increase a bit depending on those still participating in workforce. Hard to tell for KC but clearly not as hard hit as US avg.
KC labor force is larger now than it was pre-covid. Why is this?

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Anthony_Hugo98
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Re: Economy

Post by Anthony_Hugo98 »

normalthings wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:46 pm
earthling wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:21 am
This shows July breakdown for MO vs. KS sides of KC metro (2nd section)...
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-pl ... _table.htm

MO side of metro took a bigger hit with Leisure/Hospitality jobs given more hotels/restaurants/venues/touristy things but also a big hit with Financial jobs. MO side doing much better than US avg in Construction and Govt jobs. KS side doing better with Manufacturing and Financial jobs relative to US.

Nationally, unemployment claims are reducing a bit but now showing higher than employment gains (including those furloughed returning to work). The 800K new claims last week is still abnormally high even during down times. Might start seeing unemployment rate increase a bit depending on those still participating in workforce. Hard to tell for KC but clearly not as hard hit as US avg.
KC labor force is larger now than it was pre-covid. Why is this?
I remember reading that many millennials and older Zoomers were moving from coasts back inland because of cost of living, and to come back to family so they had some stable footing, this could have something to do with that maybe?
For all my military brothers and sisters out there, thanks for paving the way, ill do my best! AIRBORNE!

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

It's normal for KC to have much higher labor force in July than March but is interesting that the US labor force in July is NOT higher than Feb yet KC's July IS higher than Feb. However KC's July 2020 is lower than July 2019 so may not necessarily mean a major population boost.

Hard to say as some still living here may have "left" the work force while some also moved here. How much of each is unknown until we get a new population estimate or participation rate of labor force. Participation rate is available for national level but couldn't find for metro level.

No matter the indicator, KC doing much better than US and Midwest.

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

August BLS job report out for KC..
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

Construction employment continues to climb, up a whopping 7.1% compared to last Aug, outpacing still hot Austin, while rest of Midwest construction jobs mostly shrinking. Hospitality jobs slowly improves but still down 20% over year. Govt jobs were falling but back to improving. Financial, Telcom and Pro Biz white collar jobs actually all declined a bit from July.

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

September numbers are out. KC employment is down just 3.9% yoy. Most industries have "rounded the corner" in a positive manner.

Peers:
STL is down 5.9% this year and getting worse.
Indianapolis is down 3.2% and getting worse
Nashville is down 5.7% and improving
Chicago is down 7.2% and improving
Austin is down 2.5% and improving
Atlanta down 3.7% and improving
Denver down 3.7% and improving

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

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DColeKC
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Re: Economy

Post by DColeKC »

KC's looking good for a decent 2021 climb. We will outpace the rest of the country for sure but not be back to the pre-covid economy until 2023 according to many predictions.

earthling
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Re: Economy

Post by earthling »

Here is the US employment recovery comparing to last 10 years, back to approaching 2015 level of jobs....
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KC metro not hit as hard, the bottom got down to about 2013 level, recovery back to nearly 2017 level of jobs...
Image

STL metro hit harder like US, bottoming out near US level with recovery around 2015 level...
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With another wave of COVID expected through winter and unemployment still adding ~800K/week (with lost recovered jobs slowing down), we might see the V shape recovery start to level off with a slower recovery from this point. Maybe.

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

Metro; Sept. Unemployment; October 12 Month Change %

Chicago: 11.7%, -7.2%
New York: 9.7%, -10.4%
Portland: 7.7%, -7%
Atlanta: 6.7%, -3.1%
Austin: 6.4%, -1.9%
Raleigh: 6.1%, -6.3%
Indianapolis: 6%, -2.1%
Nashville: 5.9%, -5%
St. Louis: 5.5%, -5.1%
Kansas City: 4.9%, -4%

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normalthings
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Re: Economy

Post by normalthings »

Kansas City Metro Median HouseHold Income up 6.1% yoy.

https://berkadia.com/wp-content/uploads ... ssouri.pdf

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