KCRag Forum

Thank-you for continuing to post this data for us. Very interesting to track this.

May data by industry. KC Leisure/Hospitality is 89% recovered compared to May 2019, US is 87% recovered.

Labor force data missing is coming out next week.




https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

May jobs data as reported by labor force/workers. Take with grain of salt as revisions can happen.

KC Labor Force continues to skyrocket far ahead of US avg and faster pace than KC's April. Unemployment rate went up to 5% because labor force growing faster than employment. KC labor force relative growth also blowing past hot markets like Austin, DFW, ATL, Nashville, which are just catching up to 2019. Employment is beyond fully recovered as reported by workers per below but not yet as reported by employers near end of last page, which might indicate work from anywhere workers moving here yet job based elsewhere. US avg still well behind reported by either.


Here is US labor force for comparison, not yet caught up..


US employment as reported by workers, also well behind KC...

BLS shows Cincinnati lost 39,000 LaborForce and 40,000 employment from April to May. Any thoughts to why?

^I don't see any significant job losses in media for Cincy. Is odd that employment reported by labor force is lower than reported by employers in just one month. NYC and San Fran have that issue with a mass exodus (with remote jobs still based in those cities) but is odd for Cincy's sudden swap within one month. Might be corrected in next month as current month is always preliminary. OTOH the May data may be the correction and the back data hasn't been adjusted yet. As mentioned, take BLS data with grain of salt. Same goes for the KC data. Revisions happen and Jan data tends to be most accurate. The Feds and financial institutions make decisions partly on this data either way.

June BLS jobs data as reported by employers/companies...
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-pl ... ty_msa.htm

MO side of metro is 99.5% back to June 2019 level..


KS side of metro is almost 98% back to June 2019...


US is nearly 97% back to June 2019 level...


KC metro employment is already well above 2019 level as reported by workers/labor force a few posts back.

How are other cities doing?

^Recovery % compared to June 2019 level as reported by employers...

Austin 101% (above 2019 level)
DFW 99.8%
MO side of KC Metro 99.5%
Nashville 98.9%
KC Metro 98.8% (KC is one of few metros well over 100% reported by workers/labor force)
Denver 98.0%
Columbus 97.7%
ATL 97.7%
Omaha 97.4%
Indy 97.3%
US Avg 96.8%
Cincy 96.7%
STL 96.1%
Chicago 93%

Haven't found a hard winter major metro (with major leagues sports) from Denver to upper Atlantic that is recovering as well as KC. Most coastal metros are below US avg maybe due to tighter restrictions.

Take BLS data with grain of salt. The June data is preliminary and may change.

Interesting read on labor shortage in US. Unclear if it's really the case in KC as labor force appears to be unusually high in KC, at least up to May. Matching skills is the challenge either way.

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... iness.html

The new report, by economic data and analytics firm Emsi, highlights how the mass exodus of baby boomers from the workforce, record low participation rates among the working-age population and the lowest birth rates in U.S. history will all lead to a long-term shortage of workers. Already, businesses have begun offering higher wages, bonuses and even offering remote work as an incentive to keep their workers from leaving.

earthling wrote: ↑Fri Jul 16, 2021 11:19 am h
US is nearly 97% back to June 2019 level...


KC metro employment is already well above 2019 level as reported by workers/labor force a few posts back.

Eyeballing it, 152, 138, 146.

Recovery- regaining possession of something lost

So down 14 and recovered 12. (Million) That’s 85% recovery

^That's another way to view it but I'm calculating relative to the 2019 level only, as relative to the dip isn't as useful info as to a previous state. Another definition of recovery is 'return to normal or previous state'. US is nearly 97% recovered to 2019 previous state. Return to Feb 2020 previous state would be a another good way to view, before the economic hit started.

earthling wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:18 pm ^That's another way to view it but I'm calculating relative to the 2019 level only, as relative to the dip isn't as useful info as to a previous state. Another definition of recovery is 'return to normal or previous state'. US is nearly 97% recovered to 2019 previous state. Return to Feb 2020 previous state would be a another good way to view, before the economic hit started.

If you ask someone who lost their job, 85% of them (statistically) have their job back.

That's why it's the most useful number.

flyingember wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:47 am

earthling wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:18 pm ^That's another way to view it but I'm calculating relative to the 2019 level only, as relative to the dip isn't as useful info as to a previous state. Another definition of recovery is 'return to normal or previous state'. US is nearly 97% recovered to 2019 previous state. Return to Feb 2020 previous state would be a another good way to view, before the economic hit started.

If you ask someone who lost their job, 85% of them (statistically) have their job back.

That's why it's the most useful number.

Good point flyingember. Thanks for this perspective

Yes good point from individual recovery performance relative to the dip. Other method shows relative to last peak state, indicating how close back to where we were, good apples-to-apples stat for comparing to others as you're not dealing with extra variable of varying degrees of dip per market. Lots of perspectives can be posted, post your own if you'd like.

One thing we can figure from this is how many working age individuals died and is there a worker shortage.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -wrfu/data

Retirement ages vary, so just going to use 65 to make the data easy to work with and their 15-24 range is good enough since teens often have jobs


15-64: 124157 covid deaths, 9.5% of deaths this age

So if we figured 152 million jobs, then about 1 in 1225 workers passed in the past year from covid

My guess is it's more likely to have an impact on smaller communities in the low 1000s or less were one death could mean the only store of it's kind for an hour shutting down. If you were their only worker it's going to be harder to find a new job than in a city of millions.

flyingember wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:35 pm One thing we can figure from this is how many working age individuals died and is there a worker shortage.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C ... -wrfu/data

Retirement ages vary, so just going to use 65 to make the data easy to work with and their 15-24 range is good enough since teens often have jobs


15-64: 124157 covid deaths, 9.5% of deaths this age

So if we figured 152 million jobs, then about 1 in 1225 workers passed in the past year from covid

My guess is it's more likely to have an impact on smaller communities in the low 1000s or less were one death could mean the only store of it's kind for an hour shutting down. If you were their only worker it's going to be harder to find a new job than in a city of millions.

Imagine the impact that heart disease and cancer had on those age groups...

A shock to the system has more impact than things that are generally the same year to year

I read an article that said many who received COVID stimulus payments are using them to start their own businesses.

https://www.godaddy.com/ventureforward/ ... usinesses/

KC June BLS data as reported by labor force/employees. Take with grain of salt as BLS data often revises.

KC Labor Force continues to rocket. Those previous peaks are typically July of each year, this June is peaking beyond previous Julys.


KC Employment fully recovered (includes self-employed, day workers and perhaps WFA based elsewhere)...


US Labor Force not caught up, growth flattening...


US employment as reported by employees slower recovery...


https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

Non-farm employment declined 300 from June to July 2021. However, this is a pattern repeated every year. Looks like most years the decline can range from 10-20,000


We are within 2,000 jobs of July 2020.