Economy

[missingkc]

Does anyone on here know: is the $1016 effective rent number cited in the Berkadia article the median or the mean or something else? Thanks.

[flyingember]

Does anyone on here know: is the $1016 effective rent number cited in the Berkadia article the median or the mean or something else? Thanks.

From a Google search

“Effective Rent is the actual rental rate to be achieved by the landlord after deducting the value of concessions from the base rental rate that are paid or given to the tenant (such as a build out or renovation allowance, free rent, moving allowance, etc.), and is usually expressed as an average lease rate over the term of the lease.”

[normalthings]

MO Economic Research and Info Center December 2020 numbers are out. I believe this tracks the entire MSA

KC MSA added 12,800 jobs over November. Down 30,000 jobs yoy (-2.8%). STL down 4.6%


Year over Year Gainers:
- Construction 6.%
- Retail Trade 5.8%
- Merchandise Stores 13%
- Transport and Warehouse 3.6%
- Admin 0.3%
- Federal 5%



https://meric.mo.gov/media/pdf/unemploy ... y-file-pdf

[earthling]

Dec 2020 BLS employment data for KC metro. Down only 2.8% over a year now, much better than US average. Big improvement in Pro Services. Leisure/Hospitality still struggling but better than US avg.


https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_kansascity_msa.htm

[normalthings]

Dec 2020 BLS employment data for KC metro. Down only 2.8% over a year now, much better than US average. Big improvement in Pro Services. Leisure/Hospitality still struggling but better than US avg.

Our December employment is around the levels of January/February 2019. You have to go back to 2016 to find a December with similar numbers.

I grouped a bunch of major or relevant metro's by "very bad", "bad", and "limited impact"

Metro : Year over Year Change (%) in employment for December

New York: -10.4%
San Fransisco: -9.7%
Las Vegas: -9.4%
LA: -9.0%
Cleveland: -8.5%
Seattle: -7.5%
Chicago: -7.4%
Milwaukee: -7.3%

Columbus: -6.3%
Des Moines: -5.3%
Cincinnati: -4.6%
STL : -4.6%
Nashville: -4.1%

Kansas City: -2.8%
Atlanta: -2.5%
Dallas: -2.1%
Austin: -1%
Indianapolis: -0.9%
SLC: -0.5%

[earthling]

Here is KC employment compared to US over last 10 years.

US starting to slow down as unemployment claims are still occurring around 700K-900K/week but the return of COVID temp lost jobs are slowing down, offsetting each other now. US at around mid-2015 level, but might start to drop...


KC metro didn't fall quite as hard and still showing continued recovery even after the fairly quick return of the temp lost jobs. KC at around mid-2016 level and still climbing. But if US avg drops or stagnates 3 straight months in a row, KC might start to as well...

[normalthings]

Here is KC employment compared to US over last 10 years.

US starting to slow down as unemployment claims are still occurring around 700K-900K/week but the return of COVID temp lost jobs are slowing down, offsetting each other now. US at around mid-2015 level, but might start to drop...


KC metro didn't fall quite as hard and still showing continued recovery even after the fairly quick return of the temp lost jobs. KC at around mid-2016 level and still climbing. But if US avg drops or stagnates 3 straight months in a row, KC might start to as well...

KC recovery accelerated in December which surprised me

[earthling]

^Looks like Pro/Biz Services and Trade/Transportation made a big return in KC for Dec. Leisure/Hospitality a bigger hit for MO side of KC than KS side given that most of those jobs are on MO side (hotels, restaurants, casinos, museums, conventions, concert/theatre/event based jobs).

[earthling]

So here's some employment detail on MO side vs. KS side of KC metro....

Kansas side of KC metro wasn't hit as hard with employment and now much better than US avg...

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2092 ... raphs=true

-----

Missouri side of metro was hit much harder early summer, worse than US avg but has already recovered to almost same level as KS side, both much better than US avg now. MO side has higher % harder hit hospitality/leisure jobs so not quite back to same level as KS side but quite good compared to US.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2992 ... raphs=true

[earthling]

Even though employment continues to rise in KC metro, unemployment also rose in Dec because the labor force is returning faster than jobs...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT29 ... raphs=true

[normalthings]

Even though employment continues to rise in KC metro, unemployment also rose in Dec because the labor force is returning faster than jobs...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT29 ... raphs=true

Looks like December 2020 labor force was bigger than December 2019. Our workers and then some have returned to their jobs or are actively searching.

Fantastic news!

[earthling]

^Could also be a sign that KC metro is growing faster than jobs. Lots of sliding factors but pretty good chance it means that.

One possible trend is many move here with a work from anywhere job based out of somewhere else. They show up in labor force stats but not employed at KC company or competing for KC jobs. If the case, best of both worlds for KC.

[kboish]

I think you're right about that. What it also shows is that our economy (both locally and nationally) was already vastly under performing pre-pandemic for most americans.

[normalthings]

^Could also be a sign that KC metro is growing faster than jobs. Lots of sliding factors but pretty good chance it means that.

One possible trend is many move here with a work from anywhere job based out of somewhere else. They show up in labor force stats but not employed at KC company or competing for KC jobs. If the case, best of both worlds for KC.

Indianapolis and others are greatly out pacing us when it comes to labor force growth.

[earthling]

^Yeah expected as Indy metro population also has been growing at bit faster pace than KC recently. They may be getting much of the Chicago and rust belt exodus. Columbus too.

Take a look at the migration differences last couple years, should get 2020 update in a couple months...
Indy: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... rson%2C_IN
KC: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

[TheLastGentleman]

^Could also be a sign that KC metro is growing faster than jobs. Lots of sliding factors but pretty good chance it means that.

One possible trend is many move here with a work from anywhere job based out of somewhere else. They show up in labor force stats but not employed at KC company or competing for KC jobs. If the case, best of both worlds for KC.

Indianapolis and others are greatly out pacing us when it comes to labor force growth.

How much is "greatly"?

[normalthings]

Delinquency Rate on loads secured by real estate is at 1.94%. 10.21% at the peak of the recession


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSREACBS

[earthling]

The US economy is in a weird flux that appears to be recovering in some ways but still doing very poor in others. New unemployment claims are still over 700K/week. During most economic downturns, even 300K is bad, 100K/week is common but not great. There are still 18M claiming unemployment benefits in some form compared to around 5M before COVID. There are winners (groceries, online retailers, etc) and losers (hospitality/event/restaurants/etc),which signals an economic transition. From GDP perspective things are looking great but from employment perspective it's still poor, especially of course for those still jobless.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 10049.html

KC is opposite, doing well in terms of job recovery but probably not as well with metro GDP.

[normalthings]

MO Economic Research Center published their January 2021 data. Not the usual "official" BLS stats that I post but this is an early indicator for what may be reported next week by BLS.

MO Employment slightly improved in January 2021. Interested to see local numbers once availible.

Edit:

Mo State Labor Force down 1.8% yoy while total employe down 2.5%. State unemployment rate is at 4.3%

Kansas City MSA total employment down 3.7% yoy. 5,000 jobs added from December.

[normalthings]

BLS Preliminary Data: KCMO down just 4% yoy for January. However, preliminary data shows we lost about 17,000 jobs from December (I assume it’s a seasonal thing).

January 2021, % change year over year

KCMO: -4%
STL: -5.8%
Nashville: - 4.3%
NYC: -10.8%